NL West: Early Season Players to Watch

Baseball, more than any other major sport, is a game of streaks. About a month into action for the 2024 MLB season, there are a lot of fascinating storylines unfolding across the league. Going division by division, I highlighted a player on each team, evaluated their performance thus far, and gave my take on their future outlook. In this article, I honed in on the NL West.

*Note: all stats are as of 4/20

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers- UTL Chris Taylor

Coming off of a historic and highly-publicized spending spree and roster construction this offseason, there are a lot of different things to look at with the 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers. On the positive side, two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani looks plenty comfortable in Dodger blue (181 wRC+) and SS Mookie Betts (211 wRC+) is looking like the early frontrunner for NL MVP. Conversely, the pitching has been ravaged with injuries and has been shaky, at best. The biggest standout to me, however, is the abysmal start from utilityman Chris Taylor. Since finding himself in LA in mid-2016, Taylor has been an invaluable swiss-army knife for the Dodgers, playing almost any position on the field and producing positive output at the plate. In 2024, year three of a four year 60 million dollar contract, Taylor has been the worst position player in baseball. So far, he is 2-38 at the plate with 19 strikeouts, culminating in a putrid slashline of .053/.196/.053/.248 with a -9 wRC+. He falls short of qualification in terms of plate appearances and playing time, yet is still in the bottom ten of all of baseball with -0.5 fWAR. The Dodgers made a sizable financial commitment to Taylor and would love to see him right the ship back to being a productive player, but time may be running out. With the promotion of top prospect OF Andy Pages and the impending return of OF Jason Heyward from the IL, Taylor’s playing time will likely continue to dwindle. 

San Diego Padres- UTL Jurickson Profar

Irrelevant? I don’t think so! CF Jackson Merrill’s fast start in the big leagues has been a welcomed development for the Padres, but utilityman Jurickson Profar being the team’s best hitter, thus far, was definitely not on my bingo card. As a Rockie in 2023, Profar was possibly the worst position player in baseball, hitting .236/.316/.364/.680 with a 72 wRC+ So far, Profar is slashing .296/.398/.465/.863 with a 148 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR.  Profar has long been praised for his patient and pesky approach at the dish, but this year he’s mixed that with absolutely crushing the ball. Profar is consistently hitting the ball hard, ranking in the 83rd percentile for average exit velocity and 75th percentile for hard-hit rate. Yes, his .352 BABIP is incredibly high and may indicate some regression, but if he continues to hit the ball hard, I don’t think the regression will be that steep. He’s not a true 140 wRC+ hitter, but based on what I’ve seen from Profar in 2024, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to land around 115-120 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR.   

San Francisco Giants- RHP Jordan Hicks

As a whole, this has been a disappointing start to the 2024 season for the San Francisco Giants. While big money free agent LHP Blake Snell has struggled, RHP Jordan Hicks has looked like a revelation. Coming into this season, Hicks had worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen, demonstrating tantalizing stuff, but being limited with control and injuries. Despite his reliever background, the Giants inked Hicks to a four year 44 million dollar deal this offseason to join the rotation. So far, it looks like San Francisco made a heck of an investment. In four starts, Hicks has a 1.57 ERA through 23 innings. Never fear, the peripherals (generally) back up this hot start, as he’s amassed a 2.35 xERA and 3.12 FIP. The key for Hicks has been honing in on more control and inducing weak contact. He has sacrificed strikeouts (career low 7.04 K/9), but has cut his walk rate down to 2.35 BB/9 (career best) and ranks in the 91st percentile of ground ball percentage. Hicks’ sinker, which sits in the upper 90s, grades out as one of the best pitches in all of baseball and forms a deadly combo with his devastating sweeper. The concern with Hicks is health and stamina, as he’s never gone through a full season as a starting pitcher and has had arm troubles in the past. I imagine the Giants will be careful and monitor his innings, but that won’t stop Hicks from being absolutely nasty and a formidable foe for opposing batters.

*On Sunday (after this was originally written), Hicks went 5 IP, allowing 1 H, 4 BB, 0 K, 1 ER

Arizona Diamondbacks- OF Corbin Caroll

The defending National League champions, the Arizona Diamondbacks seem to have fallen victim to a bit of a hangover to start 2024. Young superstar OF Corbin Carroll, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year, hasn’t been conventionally bad, but it’s clear he’s yet to click. In 94 plate appearances, Carroll is hitting .235/.340/.296/.637 with an 88 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR. His approach remains stellar, as can be demonstrated by his high on-base percentage and ranking >90th percentile in whiff and strikeout rate. That’s great, but the issue is that Carroll isn’t hitting the ball hard at all, ranking in the 8th percentile of hard hit percentage and producing only three extra-base hits. When he’s making contact, he’s hitting a ground ball almost 50% of the time and popping it up over 12% of the time. His world-class speed can snag him some infield hits, but when Carroll is right, he’s elevating the ball to do damage. I’m not overly concerned about Carroll, given that the sample size is so small and that he’s also made notable strides as a defender, but his progression this season is worth following.

Colorado Rockies- LF Nolan Jones

Oof, Rockies. It’s been a rough time for Rockies fans, but after 2023, it looked like they found a possible franchise cornerstone in Nolan Jones. In 2023, Jones hit .297.389/.542/.931 with a 135 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR, and membership into the 20 HR/20 SB club. That cornerstone comment may still be true, but in 2024, Jones has been incredibly bad. In 78 plate appearances, Jones is hitting .171/.256/.300/.556 with a 40 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR. It’s hard to really pinpoint one thing for his early season struggles, Jones just looks like a shell of himself and his numbers are down across the board. He’s been served a heavy dose of fastballs (62.3%), to which he has a .190 batting average against and 18 punchouts. It isn’t much better against breaking balls, which he has a .200 batting average and just one extra-base hit against. Conversely, he hit over .300 against fastballs and breaking balls in 2023. He’s always been known to whiff and strike out at a higher rate, but he previously compensated for that by tearing the cover off the ball when he made contact. Sadly, that just hasn’t been the case for Jones in 2024. He boasts an elite arm in the outfield, but has been off to a mediocre start in the field, too. By no means would I give up on the 26 year-old, I definitely think he can bounce back to some extent, but his start to the season has been a huge gut punch to long-suffering Rockies fans that have been searching for bright spots. 

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