2021 MLB Home Run Derby Predictions

The Home Run Derby, among all All-Star festivities, were missed in 2020. With the event back in session Monday night in Colorado, I thought I'd take a swing at predicting how the HRD turns out.

*all stats are as of the morning of 7/11*

Round 1

1 LAA Shohei Ohtani (33 HRs, .421 ISO, .697 SLG) vs 8 WSH Juan Soto (11 HRs, .163 ISO, .444 SLG)

Breakdown: While the power numbers between Ohtani and Soto look quite different, don’t think that this will be an easy victory for Ohtani. Soto’s 2021 power numbers are disappointing, but he slugged .695 in 2020, hit 34 HRs in 2019, and hit a pair of HRs this week against San Diego. With that being said, Ohtani’s power prowess is off the charts. He doesn’t just hit home runs, he obliterates baseballs, topping out with a distance of 470 feet against the Royals at the beginning of June. Two transcendent superstars, Ohtani will push past Soto to the second round.

Winner: Shohei Ohtani

2 TEX Joey Gallo (24 HRs, .283 ISO, .522 SLG) vs 7 COL Trevor Story (11 HRs, .196 ISO, .448 SLG)

Breakdown: A matchup of two sluggers likely to be traded ahead of the July 30th deadline, I tend to think Joey Gallo has the upper hand in this matchup. Story, the home team representative, is having a down year, but previously slugged >.500 from 2018-2020, including two seasons of 30+ HRs. He has the power, no doubt, as well as a home field advantage, although it’s hard to measure how large that advantage is. On the flip side, Gallo had a tough start to the year in the power department, but he’s been launching dingers recently, hitting 10 HRs since 6/26 (10 games). The face of the three true outcome theory (walk, homer, strikeout), I think Gallo is gonna fire on all cylinders in this event.

Winner: Joey Gallo

3 OAK Matt Olson (21 HRs, .269 ISO, .549 SLG) vs 6 BAL Trey Mancini (15 HRs, .195 ISO, .449 SLG)

Breakdown: In the 3-6 matchup, we get a pair of AL 1Bs squaring off against each other. The 2021 numbers favor Olson, but it wasn’t that long ago when Mancini hit 35 HRs over the 2019 season. Matt Olson has quietly been one of the best power bats in baseball since his first full season in 2017 and lord knows he’ll enjoy hitting at Coors Field, as opposed to the pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum. Again, the numbers clearly favor Olson, but it’s tough to gauge how much regular season numbers correlate to the derby. Maybe I’m just a sucker for a good story (Mancini battled Colon Cancer in 2020), but I’m gonna be bold and ride with the underdog.

Winner: Trey Mancini

4 KC Salvador Perez (21 HRs, .226 ISO, .501 SLG) vs 5 NYM Pete Alonso (17 HRs, .231 ISO, .485 SLG)

Breakdown: No disrespect to Salvador Perez, but I’m all on the “Polar Bear” Pete train in this matchup. Perez has been one of the best power hitters, not just among catchers, but among all of baseball over the past two seasons. My concern lies within his track record, in which he’s never hit more than 27 HRs in a year. That’s not to dismiss Salvy’s power stroke, but I want to be cognizant of his previous marks. More than me disliking Perez, Pete Alonso is the defending HRD champ and a bonafide crusher of baseballs. After smacking 53 HRs and winning the derby in 2019, Alonso’s power numbers haven’t been jaw dropping, but that speaks more to his insane 2019 than any struggles in 2020 or 2021. Pete’s pure power and experience in the event make him the heavy favorite in this matchup, despite the seeding.

Winner: Pete Alonso

Round 2

1 LAA Shohei Ohtani (33 HRs, .421 ISO, .697 SLG) vs 5 NYM Pete Alonso (17 HRs, .231 ISO, .485 SLG)

Breakdown: What a treat in just round two between the current 2021 HR leader (Ohtani) vs the 2019 HR leader and defending derby champ (Alonso). Homers are a given in this event, but this matchup will likely also feature some balls that’ll travel near 500 feet. It’s hard to identify points of advantage for either of these sluggers, but it’s worth noting the workload that Ohtani takes on on a day-by-day basis, as well as his participation in the All Star Game as a pitcher and a hitter (Alonso is not in the ASG). When you then factor Alonso’s established success in the HRD, it seems that the New York Mets 1B could have a slight advantage. It really is a coin flip as to who will be victorious in this matchup (as is basically this entire event), but Pete is my pick.

Winner: Pete Alonso

2 TEX Joey Gallo (24 HRs, .283 ISO, .522 SLG) vs 6 BAL Trey Mancini (15 HRs, .195 ISO, .449 SLG)

Breakdown: The name value in this matchup doesn’t match the previous duo, but it should still be action packed. After upsetting #3 Matt Olson, I have little doubt that Mancini can blast ‘em with Gallo, it’s a matter of consistency. Though I have no numbers to validate my theory, I foresee Gallo being able to churn out homer after homer without exuding too much energy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mancini advance here, but Gallo’s (unconfirmed and theoretical) stamina and consistency does it for me.

Winner: Joey Gallo

Final Round

2 TEX Joey Gallo (24 HRs, .283 ISO, .522 SLG) vs 5 NYM Pete Alonso (17 HRs, .231 ISO, .485 SLG)

Breakdown: To the final round, we’re left with… you guessed it! Two prolific power hitters! The American League lefty in Gallo (subject to change at the deadline) vs the National League righty in Alonso. One can look at their career HRs, career ISO, career SLG, whatever metrics they’d like to come to a conclusion of who will win this matchup, but this is ultimately unpredictable. It truly is a toss-up, but I suppose if nothing else, I’m partial to left handers, and why not crown a new champion? Joey Gallo vs Pete Alonso, give me the likely-soon-to-be-traded Gallo!

Winner: Joey Gallo

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you think will win the Home Run Derby? Will Pete Alonso defend his title? Can Shohei Ohtani pull off the victory? Let me know in the comments below!

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