AL Central X-Factors

Virtually from now until about Halloween, there will be MLB games played each day. Use this introduction as a reminder to renew your MLB.TV subscription or retrieve your password!

The AL Central isn’t regarded as one of the strongest divisions in baseball, but it’s a consistently competitive group, as each team has won the division at least once since 2014. In this article, I highlighted a key player to watch on each AL Central team and what I make of them moving forward. This article is more focused on singular players than full teams, but if you choose to draw conclusions from the way I formatted the order of my list from one to five, then so be it!

Cleveland Guardians- 1B/DH Josh Bell

The Cleveland Guardians bring back the nucleus of their 2022 team, which won 92 regular season games and a playoff series. The progression of OF Steven Kwan and 2B Andres Gimenez will be fun to watch, as will be the brilliance of 3B Jose Ramirez. Cleveland’s notable addition this offseason was 1B/DH Josh Bell, who they believe can stabilize the middle of their order. Bell’s career has featured moments where he couldn’t get out, but also times where he struggled immensely at the plate. This was evident in 2022, when Bell compiled an .877 OPS with the Washington Nationals before being traded to the San Diego Padres, for whom he had a miserable .587 OPS. Rounded out, Bell had a 149 wRC+ in the first half of the season, an 81 wRC+ in the second half, and a 123 wRC+ overall. His second half struggles in San Diego are noteworthy, but Bell’s yearly numbers have been above average each season, with the exception being the 2020 shortened season. It’s easy to see the appeal of Josh Bell, as he walks at an elite rate and hits the ball as hard as anyone else in the league. For Bell to unleash his full potential, he needs to stop hitting the ball on the ground so often. In 2022, he had a GB rate of 50.4%, good for the 12th highest mark in MLB. Josh Bell doesn’t need to carry the offense for the Guardians, rather he just needs to be a steady presence in the middle of the lineup, which I believe he can do adequately.

Minnesota Twins- OF Joey Gallo

Baseball is often a game of failure, a game of trials and tribulations. No one player better encapsulates the unpredictability and variance of MLB than new Twins OF Joey Gallo. Gallo rose to notoriety as a Texas Ranger with his three true outcome (walk, home run, strikeout) style at the plate. His 2019 season was cut short due to injuries, but Gallo had a monster slashline of .253/.389/.598 with a 144 wRC+ and 22 HRs in just 70 Gs. Then, Gallo struggled immensely in the shortened 2020 season, slashing .181/.301/.378 with an 86 wRC+. Then, Gallo got back to mashing in 2021, sporting an ugly .199 batting average, but an exciting .808 OPS, 122 wRC+, and 38 HRs, despite struggling after being traded to the New York Yankees at the deadline. THEN, Joey Gallo had a miserable 2022 season, amassing a pitiful 85 wRC+, sub-.300 OBP, and sub-.400 SLG. Gallo’s solid defense and elite vision at the plate render him valuable to some extent, but it remains to be seen what version of Joey Gallo we’ll see in 2023. Will he be a true slugger, demonstrating his light tower power, or will he fall below the Mendoza line and prove to be an offensive liability?

Chicago White Sox- RHP Lucas Giolito

Last season, the Chicago White Sox were one of the most disappointing teams in MLB. A lot of Chicago’s woes can be attributed to their brutal injury luck, as lineup mainstays Luis Robert and Tim Anderson played in under 100 games apiece and RHP Lance Lynn was limited to 121.2 IP. While Dylan Cease had a spectacular year and veteran Johnny Cueto had a career resurgence in 2022, RHP Lucas Giolito severely underperformed. Giolito isn’t known as one of the most consistent starters on a game-by-game basis (translation: sometimes he’s dominant and other times he gets shelled), but his yearly stats from 2019 through 2021 ranged from a 3.41 ERA to 3.53 ERA and a 3.19 FIP to 3.79 FIP. In 2022, however, Giolito posted a 4.90 ERA across 161.2 IP. His peripherals (4.06 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, .340 BABIP) indicate that the righty suffered from some bad luck, but that doesn’t mean his struggles should be ignored. There isn’t exactly one overarching statistic that defines Giolito’s subpar season, as the numbers tied to each pitch he throws were much worse than last season. As well, his fastball velocity dipped to an average of 92.7 MPH after sitting about at about 94 MPH over the previous few seasons. Overall, I’m not sure what to make of Lucas Giolito moving forward. I feel strongly that he won’t repeat his disastrous 2022 season, but I am now less hopeful than in previous years that he can develop into a viable Cy Young candidate.

Kansas City Royals- 1B Vinnie Pasquantino

Phenom SS Bobby Witt Jr. gets a ton of press, deservedly so, but I think there’s a different young Royal that is worthy of a boatload of hype: 1B Vinnie Pasquantino. Even the most touted of prospects tend to struggle when they first arrive to the big leagues, but that wasn’t the case for Pasquantino. In 72 Gs and 298 PAs, Pasquantino slashed .295/.383/.450 with a 137 wRC+. Diving deeper, Baseball Savant gave the young 1B a 46.9% hard hit rate and credited him with a 90.4 contact percentage on pitches in the zone. What does this mean? Pasquantino has a rare blend of crushing the ball, while consistently making contact and avoiding whiffs. With all of his positives from 2022 mentioned, I think there is still room for improvement for Pasquantino, as the difference between his SLG% (.450) and xSLG% (.476), as well as his minor league power prowess, indicate that he could slug the ball even better moving forward. Moving forward, I see little reason as to why Vinnie Pasquantino won’t be a perennial All-Star and a cornerstone piece for the Kansas City Royals. Also, Pasquantino is a Jets fan! Pretty cool, huh?

Detroit Tigers- 1B Spencer Torkelson

By all accounts, the 2022 Detroit Tigers were a massive disappointment. One of the biggest disappointments was the underwhelming debut of former top prospect Spencer Torkelson. In 404 ABs, Torkelson slashed .203/.285/.319 with a 76 wRC+ and -1.0 fWAR. He shuttled back and forth between the Tigers and Toledo Mud Hens, but the results in AAA weren’t particularly impressive either (100 wRC+). Detroit didn’t make many notable offseason moves, which means they’ll need internal players like Spencer Torkelson to step up in order for the team to improve. It’s too early to call Torkelson a bust, as he was a superstar at Arizona State and tore up every level of the minors in 2021; there is a reason he was the #1 pick and a consensus top prospect. He is known for great batting discipline and his exit velocity numbers last season weren’t actually awful. In order for Spencer Torkelson to bounce back and live up to the hype, he needs to focus on lifting the ball and adjusting to offspeed pitches, two aspects of his game that he struggled with miserably. I’m not sure his numbers will soar into the elite category, but I think Spencer Torkelson can progress to around the 110 wRC+ mark with improved power.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! What players do you think will be pivotal in the AL Central? What team is going to win the division? Let me know in the comments below!

Don't forget to follow our Instagram, Twitter, andcheck out the podcast!