AL East X-Factors

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The AL East has been one of the more competitive divisions year in and year out. 2023 won’t be different, as all five teams should be competitive. In this article, I highlighted a key player to watch on each AL East team and what I make of them moving forward. This article is more focused on singular players than full teams, but if you choose to draw conclusions from the way I formatted the order of my list from one to five, then so be it!

Toronto Blue Jays- RHP Jose Berrios

With a young core that features 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr, SS Bo Bichette, and C Alejandro Kirk, the Toronto Blue Jays are in position to be a perennial contender. Supplemented by great OF George Springer and the recently acquired UTL Daulton Varsho, the Blue Jays offense is looking good. On the pitching side, RHPs Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah serve as a formidable 1-2 punch, with RHP Chris Bassitt filling out as a nice middle rotation arm. The wild card in the rotation, without a doubt, is RHP José Berríos. Berríos had been a steady presence for the Minnesota Twins and compiled a 3.52 ERA in 192 IP in 2021, split between Minnesota and Toronto. This led to the Blue Jays rewarding Berríos with a 7 year extension worth 131 million dollars ($18.7 AAV). Alas, he had an abysmal 2022 season, posting a 5.23 ERA and 4.55 FIP across 172 IP. His primary pitch, the curveball, was effective, but his four-seam fastball and sinker were crushed by hitters. Berríos was once fantastic at limiting hard contact, but his hard hit percentage plummeted to the 11th percentile. Not all hope is lost for José, as he’s only 29 and has put together several solid seasons. If Berríos can bounce back, the Blue Jays will have a great rotation. If he continues to struggle, Toronto will be on the hook for a disastrous contract for many years to come.

New York Yankees- CF Harrison Bader

Despite the tough injury news surrounding RHP Frankie Montas and the nagging injuries to LHP Carlos Rodon and RHP Luis Severino, I feel confident in New York’s rotation en route to producing one of the best units in the league. In the Yankees lineup, RF Aaron Judge is a steady presence, as are 1B Anthony Rizzo and DH Giancarlo Stanton. Past those guys, there aren’t any players where production at the plate is guaranteed. One polarizing Yankee is CF Harrison Bader, who was acquired at last year’s trade deadline. Bader was injured for most of the summer and had a dismal return in September (47 wRC+). His overall 86 wRC+ across the 2022 regular season isn’t exciting, but Bader had a productive postseason. In 30 ABs, Bader slashed .333/.429/.833 with a miraculous 5 HRs. The sample size is obviously small, but he’s produced successful offensive seasons before (114 wRC+ in 2020, 110 wRC+ in 2021). With his stellar defense in CF (48 career DRS), Harrison Bader doesn’t need to have a superstar offensive season in order to be a useful piece for the 2023 Yankees.

*Bader is nursing an oblique injury, but it shouldn’t be a long-term issue

Tampa Bay Rays- SS Wander Franco

When former top prospect Wander Franco is healthy, he’s a great player. Over 153 games played, Franco has a solid slashline of .282/.337/.439 with a 121 wRC+. The issue is that those 153 games have spanned over two seasons, as the shortstop has dealt with a myriad of injuries. On the field, Franco has room for improvement regarding his splits at the place. Across his brief career, the switch-hitter has a mark of .335/.381/.545 with a 160 wRC+ against LHP, but a relatively average line of .262/.321/.397 with a 106 wRC+ against RHP. Wander improved his numbers against RHP in 2022 with a 113 wRC+, but I believe he has more untapped potential that can turn him into a bona-fide superstar. The Rays rarely shell out the big bucks, but they’ve invested $182 million with the confidence that Wander Franco will become one of the best players in the sport.

Baltimore Orioles- RHP Dean Kremer

After a surprisingly successful season in 2022, what will the Orioles have for an encore? With C Adley Rutschman and SS Gunnar Henderson in the Baltimore lineup for a full season, I think this team will be able to hit fairly well. My concern is the rotation, which is filled with mediocre inning eaters like RHP Kyle Gibson and LHP Cole Irvin. Hopefully LHP John Means will be able to return from Tommy John this summer, but the key for the Baltimore rotation will be RHP Dean Kremer. Kremer was unimpressive in his debut season in 2020 (4.82 ERA in 18.2 IP), then outright bad in 2021 (7.55 ERA in 53.2 IP). For whatever reason, something flipped for the young pitcher in 2022, as he pitched to a 3.23 ERA in 125.1 IP. The peripherals (3.80 FIP, 4.43 xFIP) indicate that some regression is to be expected, but I like the outlook for Kremer. If he can make close to 30 starts and post a sub 4.00 ERA, I would call it a success.

Boston Red Sox- OF Masataka Yoshida

To say that the mood around Boston is somber wouldn’t do justice to the turnover that the Red Sox have suffered. With SS Xander Boagerts departing to sunny San Diego, Chaim Bloom’s big move of the offseason came from signing OF Masataka Yoshida, a Japanese phenom. In his final season with the Orix Buffaloes in 2022, Yoshida slashed .336/.449/.559 with 21 HRs and 28 2Bs. Through his seven years in the NPB, he has slashed .326/.419/.538 with 135 HRs and 164 2Bs. Projection systems are very high on Masataka; Steamer has him projected at .299/.388/.480 with a 140 wRC+. I feel that the projection models are underestimating the steep learning curve that many foreign players face as they adjust to Major League Baseball. At 5’8” 176 lbs, I have my concerns about if his power numbers will translate. I think Yoshida could get near the 140 wRC+ range in a few years (he signed a 5 year 90 million contract), but I would temper expectations for 2023.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! What players do you think will be pivotal in the AL East? What team is going to win the division? Let me know in the comments below!

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