Dark Horse Picks For 2020 MLB Awards

With no real game action going on due to COVID-19, a good majority of sports news and writing is about predictions. I was scrolling through my notes yesterday when I stumbled upon my friend and I's bold award picks for the 2020 MLB season that we made at the beginning of Spring Training. With no real game action going on due to COVID-19, a good majority of sports news and writing is about predictions. Since that is the case, I'll hop on and give you all my dark horse picks for 2020 MLB awards.

NL CY Young: Zac Gallen, RHP for the Arizona Diamondbacks

A typical fan may see or hear the name Zac Gallen and not be familiar with the guy, but he has the makings to be a very good pitcher in the MLB. Gallen has only made 15 starts at the big league level, but he showed lots of promise during his small sample size. In 7 starts for the Miami Marlins, Gallen sported a 2.72 ERA along with a 3.57 FIP and 1.18 WHIP through 36 ⅓ IP. After the 24 year old was dealt to the desert, he made 8 starts and produced similar numbers- 2.89 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP through 43 ⅔ IP. These are good numbers, but not necessarily worthy of CY Young consideration the following season. The reason that I love Gallen is his ability to limit the homerun ball. Through the minors, Zac threw nearly 400 innings and gave up a total of 35 home runs, equating to a 0.8 HR/9 over that span. The young righty then continued that trend with a 0.9 HR/9 in 2019, which is an elite ratio with significant innings pitched. For some perspective, 10 pitchers in Major League Baseball (with enough innings pitched to qualify) had a sub 1 HR/9. 9 of the 10 had sub 4 ERAs, 6 had sub 3 ERAs. It isn't rocket science, when you don't give out instant runs, it makes it a lot easier to be a successful pitcher. Zac Gallen's track record makes it clear that he can rank amongst the aforementioned 10 in keeping the ball in the park, and if he can improve on his 4.05 BB/9 in the MLB, the National League better be on the lookout.

AL CY Young: Tyler Glasnow, RHP for the Tampa Bay Rays

Glasnow, part of the highway robbery the Rays committed against the Pirates, looked on his way to a career year in 2019 before the majority of his season was cut due to forearm issues. Glasnow ended the year with a 1.78 ERA/2.26 FIP/0.89 WHIP, but that was only in 60 ⅔ IP. One may come away with the conclusion that 2019 was a fluke for TG, I mean it was a limited sample size and he had struggled in his previous years in the MLB. However, I find that to be an incredibly lazy take. First off, he's a former top 10 prospect and is only 26! Numbers from a young pitcher's first few seasons aren't necessarily the most accurate indicator for future output. Next, Glasnow looks like he has an elite 1-2 combo. Glasnow throws a high 90s fastball that can go upwards of 100 MPH and a devastating deuce that is regarded as one of the nastiest in the game. Lastly, his 2019 peripherals were incredible with his fastball velocity, curveball spin, strikeout percentage, xBA, xwOBA, and xSLG were all in the 90th percentile and above. I absolutely love Tyler Glasnow and am excited to see what he can do over the course of a full healthy season. 

NL MVP: Freddie Freeman, 1B for the Atlanta Braves

This pick might not be considered a dark horse by many, but I don't see enough Freddie Freeman love! Young studs OF Ronald Acuña Jr and 2B Ozzie Albies get an incredible amount of publicity and recognition (as they should), but I still believe Freddie Freeman is the best player on the Braves. Freddie had a great 2019 with a slash line of .295/.389/.549 along with career bests 38 HRs and 121 RBIs. The advanced metrics praise Freddie as well, his xBA, xSLG, wOBA, and xwOBA were all in the top 10% of the league for 2019. Freeman has been putting up numbers like this every year since he's been in the league! He took a step back in the field last season, but it really doesn't matter with what he's doing at the plate. To me, his season was clearly deserving of more national attention and honestly played better than some players ahead of him in MVP voting. The biggest knock against Freddie and his MVP campaign is his shoulder injury, so if that continues to nag I'll look like an idiot for hyping him up. However, I love Freddie Freeman and if healthy, he should be one of the best players in the NL. 

AL MVP: Josh Donaldson, 3B for the Minnesota Twins

"The Bringer of Rain" is ready to make it pour in the Twin City. The two biggest reasons I love Josh Donaldson fighting for MVP are his elite nickname and the fact that he's achieved the feat before. After an incredible stretch from 2013-2017, including 3 All-Star appearances, 2 Silver Sluggers, and an MVP, Donaldson battled injuries and had a horrid 2018 season. He took a one-year flyer in Atlanta in 2019 and produced much closer to the 5 year stretch than the previous year. He owned a slash line of .259/.379/.521 with 37 HRs and 94 RBIs in 2019 that got him voted #11 in the NL MVP race, leading the Twins to give him a 4 year $92M deal in free agency. Donaldson's 2019 numbers aren't as off from his MVP season as one might think. His batting average was significantly off from 2015, but batting average is an incredibly flawed stat that should hold little merit in the MVP voters' eyes. His slugging percentage and OPS have a decent gap from 2015 to 2019, but Josh is still mashing XBHs and I see no reason why he can't improve closer to his former numbers. Josh's elite eye (15.2% walk rate in 2019) combined with his power and strength (15.7 barrel percentage, 92.9 MPH average exit velocity, and 50 hard hit percentage in 2019) make him the perfect build to compete for a 2nd MVP. When a guy constantly hits the ball that hard, he seems destined for great results. With good health and even slight improvement in the strikeout category, Donaldson can recapture his peak form and give all AL pitchers nightmares. 

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading! What do you think of my dark horse predictions? Who are your personal picks? Let me know in the comments down below!