Evaluating My Favorite MiLB Prospects

Before Vladimir Guerrero Jr. became a superstar at baseball’s highest level, he was the #1 overall prospect in the sport. Before Jacob deGrom became an elite pitcher in Major League Baseball, he was a shortstop at Stetson University. No path to the big leagues is exactly the same, each prospect is unique. Here, I evaluate some of my favorite MiLB prospects. Ranging from top prospects in their team’s farm to unfamiliar names, the order of this list is based on how much I like them, not a ranking.

R/R SP Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

Pipeline Ranking: #12

Fangraphs Ranking: #10

Shane Baz, a piece of the ill-forgotten Chris Archer trade, has emerged as one of the best starting pitching prospects in the sport. Drafted with the twelfth pick in the 2017 draft out of high school by the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baz has only thrown 249 innings in the minor leagues, topping out at 81.1 IP in 2019. Despite his lack of overwhelming experience in the minors, Baz made his MLB debut in 2021 for Tampa Bay, posting a 2.03 ERA in 13.1 IP. After throwing 13 innings in AAA Durham this year, the Rays recalled Baz last week. Standing at 6’2” and weighing in at 190 lbs, Shane overwhelms batters with his high 90s fastball. High pitch speeds aren’t uncommon nowadays, but this young righty has impeccable command and gets ridiculous vertical movement on each hater. To play off of his fastball, Baz throws a deceiving mid-high 80s slider that falls off the table against right handed hitters. Provided he stays healthy, I have little doubt that Shane Baz becomes one of the toughest starting pitchers in the American League. When watching Shane Baz pitch, I can’t help but see him as the next Gerrit Cole.

R/R 3B Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals

Pipeline Ranking: #25

Fangraphs Ranking: #18

INF Nolan Gorman is currently making a strong impression in the big leagues for the St. Louis Cardinals, but don’t forget about 3B Jordan Walker. Drafted two spots after Pete Crow-Armstrong (soon to be mentioned) in the 2020 draft, Walker has transitioned smoothly from Georgia high school baseball to pro ball. It took only 99 ABs, culminating in a 1.162 OPS, for the Cardinals to promote him from A to A+ level. It was more of the same for Jordan playing A+ ball, slashing .292/.344/.487. Currently, Walker is with the Cardinals AA affiliate in Springfield, and guess what! He’s crushing the ball! At 20 years old, Walker is the youngest player in the AA Texas League, yet he’s been one of the best players in the league. Standing at 6’5”, this Cardinals phenom consistently generates power with one of the prettiest swings you’ll ever see. He’s not incredibly fast, but he’s athletic for his size and possesses a strong arm from third base. If I had to make a comparison for Jordan Walker, I’d pick Atlanta Braves 3B Austin Riley; both are large in stature, hit for great power, and have quick hands at the plate.

R/R OF Esteury Ruiz, San Diego Padres

Pipeline Ranking: N/A

Fangraphs Rankings: N/A

My bias tends to show up in most of my articles and in this one it lies with the inclusion of OF Esteury Ruiz. Years ago, Ruiz tore up rookie ball and won the 2017 Arizona League MVP. With the future looking incredibly bright for him, Esteury failed to find the same great success as he graduated into A, A+, and AA. After posting a fine .739 OPS in AA San Antonio in 2021, Ruiz was trending towards an afterthought within the Padres organization. Alas, he proceeded to slash .344/.474/.611 with a 177 wRC+ in AA this season before recently being promoted to AAA El Paso. I believe one of the biggest reasons for Ruiz’s breakout is his improved discipline, as his walk rate this season is nearly double his career mark and his strikeout rate is down, too. Ruiz probably won’t consistently slug .611, but he has certainly demonstrated that he is capable of hitting for power. He is a converted infielder who is still finding his footing in the outfield, but his strong athletic profile bodes well for his development as an outfielder. Even if Ruiz can’t sustain success at the plate, his elite speed will make him a useful utility man. At worst, he’s a speed-threat off the bench. At best, Esteury Ruiz can be an every-day big leaguer and yearly 20-20 (HR-SB) recipient.

L/L OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

Pipeline Ranking: #91

Fangraphs Ranking: #46

In high school, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong was regarded as one of the top prep players in the country. Pete was phenomenal at Harvard Westlake, but scouts didn’t love his bat as much as other prospects. After being selected 19th overall by the New York Mets in 2020, PCA was traded at the 2021 trade deadline to the Chicago Cubs for SS Javier Baez. Following a 2021 season cut short due to a labrum injury, Crow-Armstrong tore it up for the Cubs A affiliate, slashing .354/.443/.557 with 7 home runs and a 177 wRC+. With his hot start at the dish, the Cubs promoted PCA to their A+ affiliate. The results haven’t been there so far in South Bend, but he’s only appeared in 9 games and is just 20 years old. Even if he doesn’t develop into a plus hitter, Pete Crow-Armstrong will be a valuable asset due to his incredible speed and great defense in the outfield. His swing is very quick and looks more susceptible to line drives than home runs, but his strong showing of power so far in 2022 is certainly encouraging. Largely based on his defensive prowess, Pete Crow-Armstrong reminds me of Harrison Bader, albeit with slightly less power.

R/R SP Randy Vasquez, New York Yankees

Pipeline Ranking: N/A

Fangraphs Ranking: N/A

When most people think of New York’s farm system, SS sensations Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Peraza, as well as flamethrowing RHPs Luis Gil and Luis Medina often come to mind. Buried at #15 on their prospect list, the Yankees have a sneaky good starter in Randy Vasquez. Unlike previous pitchers referenced on this list, Vasquez isn’t the hardest of throwers. However, he follows through powerfully and throws with strong conviction, giving his four-seam fastball more life. His best pitch is his curveball, which is thrown with a ridiculous amount of spin and drops down with power. I am fascinated by his blitzball-esque two-seamer, which could be a legit wipeout pitch if Randy can consistently locate it on the corners. His slider is inconsistent, but mirrors a frisbee with the way it moves laterally. Basically, everything he throws moves. The key for Randy Vasquez is clear; throw strikes. He has steadily improved his walk rate through 2021 and 2022, but Vasquez must continue to progress in this area for him to be a major league starter. The Yankees have developed an effective pitching lab, so I’m excited to see what the future holds for Randy Vasquez.

R/R SP Seth Johnson, Tampa Bay Rays

Pipeline Ranking: N/A

Fangraphs Ranking: N/A

In many organizations, Seth Johnson could be a top 3 prospect. In reality, Tampa Bay has such an incredible farm system that he’s ranked 7th. He’s not Shane Baz, but he similarly lives off of his lively fastball. His go-to secondary pitch after his mid-90s fastball is the slider, which is rated 55 grade by MLB Pipeline. Since being drafted 40th overall in 2019, Johnson has performed well at every level. Over 137.2 pro innings, he owns a 2.81 ERA with 172 Ks. His BB/9 is higher than ideal, but it must be kept in mind that Johnson didn’t start consistently pitching until college and will take time to develop. He’s mechanically sound, which is a plus. With his fastball/slider combo he should continue to dominate the minor leagues, but he’ll need to elevate his changeup and/or slider in order to be a great big leaguer. I struggle to find a great comparison for Johnson, but he’s stylistically similar to Atlanta Braves RHP Huascar Ynoa, who heavily relies on his fastball and slider.

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