NFL Championship Round Picks

Playoff record: 7-3

NFC Championship Round

Sunday 12:05 PM PST on Fox: 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs 1 Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Storyline to watch: Rodgers vs Brady. We got two of the best QBs of all-time square off in New Orleans last week, and we get another iconic matchup this Sunday. Amazingly, this is the first NFC Championship that Aaron Rodgers will host at Lambeau, while this postseason has been a rare road trip for Tom Brady. Rodgers has been MVP-level great and continued that in the postseason, while TB12 had a good season but was mediocre against the Saints. The QB comparison will dominate news outlets all week long and be the main talking point for Joe Buck in the booth on Sunday. Will Aaron continue his phenomenal season, or will Tom Terrific take over Lambeau?

X-Factor(s): CB Carlton Davis. Davis likely won’t shadow Davante Adams full-time like Jalen Ramsey did, but the former Auburn Tiger likely draws the lion share of reps vs Green Bay’s star WR. Facing Michael Thomas in the Divisional Round, Davis covered Michael Thomas on 20 snaps, limiting him to 3 targets and shutting him out with 0 receptions. Thomas hasn’t been himself this season, but that performance vs a star WR is still incredible. Adams has probably been the best WR during the 2020 season, can Carlton Davis limit his impact? For a Buccaneers win, he must.

Score: 34-24 Packers. Tom Brady has a knack for, well, not losing, but Aaron Rodgers is on another planet right now. Furthermore, the Tampa Bay offense hasn’t screamed confidence this postseason, so I like Green Bay quite a bit. The Tampa Bay defense was impressive last week, but it’d be disrespectful to compare Brees and the ‘aints to Rodgers and the Packers. Tom Brady magic is real, and this may blow up in my face, but I think the cheeseheads can handle the Bucs and clinch their ticket to the Super Bowl, a.k.a Tampa Bay’s Raymond James Stadium.

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AFC Championship Round

Sunday 3:40 PM PST on CBS: 2 Buffalo Bills vs 1 Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Storyline to watch: Who’s at QB for Kansas City? This doubles could double as the X-factor as this is a whole different game if Patrick Mahomes is unavailable. With the best QB in the NFL healthy? KC can feel good going into this matchup. With Chad “Henne given day” Henne? It sounds like quite the uphill battle. Perhaps Andy Reid will pivot to another Mahomes, such as Patrick’s Tiktoking brother Jackson. In all seriousness, Patrick Mahomes’ playing status makes or breaks this game.

X-Factor(s): Kansas City pass rush. Looking past Mahomes, the Bills signal-caller is dynamic with his legs and makes plays out of the pocket. The KC defense needs to force Josh Allen to remain in the pocket and keep him from rolling right, where he is absolutely lethal. The Bills don’t current boast a great run game, so pass rush success will likely convert to overall success. Frank Clark, Chris Jones, and co. have to get home and limit the Allen escapability to win, whether Pat Mahomes plays or not.

Score: 31-20 Chiefs (assuming Mahomes plays). The Chiefs proved to not be bullet proof as the Browns battled last week, while the Bills haven’t lost since the Hail Murray in mid-November. With that being said, a healthy Chiefs offense is a mismatch for any team. On the flip side, the Chiefs boast a gritty defense that is capable of forcing a key turnover. I don’t doubt the Bills ability to sling the ball, but the inability to run it gives an edge to the defense. The Bills have been absolutely rolling, but the Chiefs at (relative) full strength are the best team in football. Chad Henne in at QB flips this game on its head, but with Kansas City Royals partial owner and football throwing extraordinaire in the lineup, light up the Red Kingdom!