Guide to Super Bowl LVIII

Super Bowl Sunday is here! After a season with many twists and turns throughout the NFL, we have two heavyweights remaining: the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. Here’s my comprehensive breakdown before the big game.

By the Numbers:

QBs

Patrick Mahomes (KC) → 4183 yards, 67.2 CMP%, 27 TDs, 14 INTs

Brock Purdy (SF) → 4280 yards, 69.4 CMP%, 31 TDs, 11 INTs

RBs

Isiah Pacheco (KC) → 935 rushing yards, 4.6 YPC, 44 receptions, 244 receiving yards, 9 total TDs

Christian McCaffrey (SF) → 1459 rushing yards, 5.4 YPC, 67 receptions, 564 receiving yards, 21 total TDs

WRs/TEs

Rashee Rice (KC) → 79 receptions, 938 yards, 7 TDs

Travis Kelce (KC) → 93 receptions, 984 yards, 5 TDs

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) → 75 receptions, 1342 yards, 7 TDs

Deebo Samuel (SF) → 60 receptions, 892 receiving yards, 225 rushing yards, 12 total TDs

George Kittle (SF) → 65 receptions, 1020 yards, 6 TDs

DL

Chris Jones (KC) → 30 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 13 TFLs

George Karlaftis (KC) → 47 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 7 TFLs

Nick Bosa (SF) → 53 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 16 TFLs, 2 FF, 1 FR

Javon Hargrave (SF) → 44 tackles, 7 sacks, 8 TFLs

LBs

Drue Tranquil (KC) → 79 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 7 TFLs, 1 INT

Leo Chenal (KC) → 65 tackles, 3 sacks, 8 TFLs

Fred Warner (SF) → 132 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 6 TFLs, 4 INTs, 4 FFs, 11 PDs

Dre Greenlaw (SF) → 120 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 5 TFLs, 4 PDs

DBs

Justin Reid (KC) → 95 tackles, 3 sacks, 5 TFLs, 1 INT, 1 FF, 7 PDs

Trent McDuffie (KC) → 80 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 TFLs, 7 PDs, 5 FFs

L’Jarius Sneed (KC) → 78 tackles, 5 TFLs, 2 INT, 14 PDs, 1 FR

Deommodore Lenoir (SF) → 84 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 INTs, 10 PDs

Charvarius Ward (SF) → 72 tackles, 2 TFLs, 5 INTs, 23 PDs

ST

Harrison Butker (KC) → 33-35 FGs, 94.3 FG%, 38-38 XPs, 100 XP%, long of 60 yards

Tommy Townsend (KC) → 59 punts, 2776 yards, 47.1 average, long of 68 yards

Jake Moody (SF) → 21-25 FGs, 84 FG%, 60-61 XPs, 98.4 XP%, long of 57 yards

Mitch Wishnowsky (SF) → 52 punts, 2480 yards, 47.7 average, long of 67 yards 

Breakdown:

The Kansas City Chiefs had some rocky moments in the regular season, but the team turned it on when the games mattered the most. Faced with his first road playoff matchups, QB Patrick Mahomes II proved himself worthy, once again. His playoff stats haven’t been gaudy, but Mahomes has 4 TDs, 68 CMP%, and no turnovers. Of those passing TDs, three of them have been caught by TE Travis Kelce, who has had a monster postseason. Mahomes to Kelce is the famous duo in Kansas City (sorry Taylor Swift?), but the Chiefs wouldn’t be where they are without the contributions of youngsters Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. In his second year out of Rutgers, Pacheco has emerged as the lead RB in the Andy Reid offense. He isn’t a huge guy, but he’s a powerful downhill runner with breakaway speed. On the other hand, Rice has stepped up as the bonafide WR1. He can make plays in the vertical passing game, but also thrives with the ball in his hands on underneath routes. All told, the Chiefs have a quartet of great playmakers. The concern, however, is the lack of quality WR depth. Guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney have big play upside, but all struggle to hold onto the ball. When push comes to shove, can Kansas City’s reinforcements step up if needed? Lastly, the interior offensive line is punishing, provided LG Joe Thuney is healthy, while OTs Wanya Morris and Jawaan Taylor aren’t as rock solid. 

On the flip side, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has quietly turned his unit into one of the best in all of football. Through the regular season, the Chiefs ranked 2nd in the NFL with 289.8 YPG allowed, as well as an impressive 17.3 PPG allowed. It starts up front with DT Chris Jones, one of the most disruptive defenders in the sport. He’s a notable run stopper, but is also a dominant force when rushing the passer. At the second level, the Chiefs have a plethora of above-average players. Drue Tranquil is a tackling machine, Leo Chenal is a versatile asset, and Willie Gay is an athletic specimen. Then, you add in a healthy Nick Bolton and that’s a ferocious group. Similarly, the secondary is spectacular. You’d be hard pressed to find many CB duos better than Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed. McDuffie is both a great coverage corner and superb tackler, while Sneed is a noted speedster and ballhawk. S Justin Reid, the team’s leading tackler, is a rangy utilityman that can make places anywhere on the field. Kansas City’s era of success began with offensive juggernauts, but in 2024, the defense is the driving force. 

Entering the season with lofty expectations, the San Francisco 49ers navigated their way back to the Super Bowl. At the helm, QB Brock Purdy has been a steady hand in commandeering this offense. His overall playoff performances have been mediocre, but he’s stepped up when the 49ers needed him to, helping engineer a minor comeback against the Packers, then a MAJOR comeback against the Lions. Purdy doesn’t need to do anything too flashy, given that he has the Offensive Player of the Year next to him in RB Christian McCaffrey. Positional value be damned, McCaffrey is one of the most valuable and versatile players in the league. Whether it be via handoff or throw, the offensive game plan for the 49ers should focus on getting the ball to CMC. Similarly to McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel has a unique skillset with the ball in his hands. His 2023 numbers were a step down from his monster 2022 campaign, but Samuel is a tough guy to take down in open space. The playmaking doesn’t end there, as WR Brandon Aiyuk was the team leader in yards and receptions this season. Since entering the league, Aiyuk has been getting better and better to the point where he’s a legit WR1 caliber player. Am I forgetting someone? Shoot. Is it future Hall of Fame TE George Kittle? Basically since Kittle entered the league, he has been the most complete TE in football. His counterpart Travis Kelce may be the better pass-catcher, but Kittle is a monster blocker, while also consistently hovering around 1000 receiving yards per season. Speaking of monstrous blockers, LT Trent Williams is one of the best to ever do it. The concern, though, is the talent and cohesiveness of the rest of the offensive line. With Chris Jones lining up inside on the other side, the interior line for San Francisco will have a hefty challenge on their hands. 

As per usual, the 49ers defensive is fantastic. They grade out in the middle of the pack in terms of passing YPG, but rank in the upper echelon in rushing defense, surrendering only 89.7 rushing YPG. DE Nick Bosa is an unstoppable force off the edge, as can be inferred based on three straight seasons of 10+ sacks. In the NFC Championship Game against the Lions, Bosa made his presence felt with a pair of sacks. With DT Arik Armstead and former Buckeye, new 49er teammate DE Chase Young, the front is stout. Referring back to my comment on Christian McCaffrey’s value, LB Fred Warner rivals his impact. He, quite literally, does everything. He’s a secure tackler, but also an aggressive athletic specimen that makes big plays in all facets of the game. He’ll meet the runner in the backfield one play, then guard the top receiving threat and force an incompletion on the next. Next to him, LB Dre Greenlaw is no slouch. On any other team, Greenlaw would almost certainly be the best second level player on the roster. Retreating back, the dicier part of this defense is the secondary. Of note, they suffered a huge blow in November when standout S Talanoa Hufanga blew out his knee. That has put pressure on the CBs, namely Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, and Ambry Thomas, to step up and lock in on coverage. These guys haven’t been bad, per se, but they’ve had lapses and moments of vulnerability. They don’t need to totally clamp the Kansas City wideouts, but it's imperative that they make tackles and limit big plays over the top.

Prediction:

I’ve gone back and forth with this matchup. On one hand, it’s hard to go back-to-back and the 49ers are probably the more complete team. On the other hand, Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes and a championship-caliber defense. To settle my indecisiveness, I went to the stats and locked in on a specific Super Bowl trend. Dating back to 2009, the average salary for the leading rusher in the Super Bowl is just a tick above $1 million. Should the 49ers win, I assume Christian McCaffrey would be the leading rusher. So? Well, McCaffrey has an average yearly salary of $16 million, which supersedes the combined salaries of nearly the last 20 leading Super Bowl rushers. With my nerdy analytical reasoning presented, I am picking the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl LVIII. I predict the final score will be 31-27, with Isiah Pacheco (???) winning Super Bowl MVP. Mahomes is the obvious pick for SB MVP, but I love Isiah Pacheco. 

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you think will win Super Bowl LVIII? What about the Super Bowl MVP? Let me know in the comments below!

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