March Madness East Region Preview

This is March. The East Region is headlined with mighty Duke, then balanced with the high-powered offenses of Alabama and Wisconsin and the stout defenses of Saint Mary’s and VCU.

East Region

1 Duke Blue Devils (31-3)

• Strength: Shooting

• Weakness: Forcing turnovers

• X-Factor: C Khaman Maluach 

Duke has the best roster in college basketball and has played up to its talent all season long. The main event is forward Cooper Flagg, the first team All-American and future number one draft pick, who has met and exceeded all expectations as the most hyped up freshman in college basketball since Zion Williamson. With Flagg, there are two more key freshman contributors: guard Kon Knueppel and center Khaman Maluach. Knueppel is stellar from three and Maluach is a dominant inside presence, as both players are likely to be selected in the lottery of the 2025 NBA Draft. Guided with the veteran presence and bucket-getting abilities of junior guard Tyrese Proctor, the Blue Devils are well-rounded and nasty. On KenPom, Duke ranks third in offensive efficiency, fourth in defensive efficiency, first overall and enters March Madness with the highest net rating of any team since 1999 Duke. Folks were holding their breath after Flagg got injured in the ACC Tournament, but all indications suggest that he will be ready to go for the big dance, which enables Duke to compete for a national title.  

2 Alabama Crimson Tide (25-8)

• Strength: Two-point offense

• Weakness: Turnovers (both sides)

• X-Factor: F Grant Nelson

Under Nate Oats, Alabama has blossomed into one of the best programs in college basketball with a clear identity: play fast, shoot threes, and get to the rim. Star guard Mark Sears is an All-American that can score in bunches, but is entering the tournament in a shooting slump. When shots aren’t falling, the Crimson Tide often lean on Swiss Army knife forward Grant Nelson, who moves incredibly well at 6’11” and is known for his emphatic poster dunks. Nelson (knee) is questionable for the Round of 64, but is believed to have avoided a big injury and should be available over the weekend. As a team, Alabama scores 91.1 points per game (first in the country) and shoots 59.7% from two-point range (4th). The Crimson Tide’s biggest weakness is forcing turnovers on defense, ranking 348th in turnover rate. Alabama will score every time out, it’s just a matter of if they can get a few stops on defense to seal the deal. Their erratic style of play may deter some, but they have the talent and depth to return to the Final Four for the second consecutive season.

3 Wisconsin Badgers (26-9)

• Strength: Free-throw shooting

• Weakness: Forcing turnovers

• X-Factor: C Steven Crowl

Long gone are the days of the Bo Ryan style of basketball, Wisconsin now plays an exciting and fun brand of basketball. The Badgers’ saving grace has been the addition of sixth-year wing John Tonje, a tenacious and meticulous scorer who was honored as a second-team All-American. Coach Greg Gard has a second standout John in guard John Blackwell, who has taken a sophomore leap with higher usage. Wisconsin’s biggest strength as a team is their free-throw shooting, leading the nation at 82.8%—the second-highest mark in history. The Badger defense has generally gotten better as the season has gone on, but they’re not very opportunistic (331st in turnover rate) and have struggled against teams with strong big men. On that note, the play of fifth-year senior center Steven Crowl will be pivotal in how far Wisconsin goes in the tournament.

4 Arizona Wildcats (22-12)

• Strength: Offensive rebounding

• Weakness: Three-point shooting

• X-Factor: F Carter Bryant

Arizona was challenged in their first season as members of the Big 12, but still managed to place third in the regular season standings and finish as the runner-up in the conference tournament. A lot of the offense relies on fifth-year guard Caleb Love, who has had some incredible highs and some tough lows. When Love is shooting efficiently, Arizona can beat anyone, but his off-nights damage the team’s chances of winning greatly. Guard Jaden Bradley is a winning player that contributes in more ways than just scoring, while the big man duo of Henri Veesar and Tobe Awake is incredibly stout in the paint. The player to watch is freshman wing Carter Bryant; a projected first-round pick, Bryant is a superb athlete whose stats don’t tell the whole story of how great of a player he can be. Arizona probably isn’t a true title contender, but they have the pieces to win a few games. 

5 Oregon Ducks (24-9)

• Strength: Three-point defense 

• Weakness: Three-point shooting

• X-Factor: G TJ Bamba

Dana Altman and the Ducks are inevitable during this time of year. Outside of a five-game skid in the middle of conference play, Oregon has consistently been finding ways to win. Center Nate Bittle has been healthy and enjoyed a breakout season, averaging 14.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Altman has a trio of playmaking guards in Jackson Shelstead, TJ Bamba, and Keeshawn Barthelemy. Barthelemy is the team’s strongest outside shooter, though they don’t depend heavily on the three-ball. Instead, they excel at contesting opponents’ three-point attempts. Oregon is a consistently steady team—strong across the board without being elite in any one area, and without a clear Achilles’ heel.

6 BYU Cougars (24-9)

• Strength: Two-point shooting

• Weakness: Three-point defense

• X-Factor: G Egor Demin

Under first-year coach Kevin Young, BYU is playing its best basketball at the right time. The Cougars can score, led by forward Richie Saunders (16.0 PPG), but featuring eight players averaging over seven points. In that group, guard Egor Demin is a lengthy playmaker and passer that is expected to be a lottery pick in the summer. Much of their offense is done from outside, where they’re solid (37.1%, 33rd), but BYU truly excels at scoring inside, as they rank sixth in the country at 58.6% from two-point range. For all of their offensive success, the Cougars defense is not close to the same level. They give up 38% of their points from deep and rank 243rd in three-point, which are concerning numbers given the volatility and importance of shooting for underdogs like their first round opponent, VCU. Offensive firepower could take BYU to the second weekend, but weak perimeter defense could see them fall early. 

7 Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-5)

• Strength: Rebounding

• Weakness: Free-throw shooting

• X-Factor: G Jordan Ross

Death, taxes, and Randy Bennett using hard-nosed defense to get his team to the tournament. Saint Mary’s won the regular season title for the second straight year, despite losing guard Aidan Mahaney to UConn. Veteran guard Augustas Marciulionis has taken a step forward, while fifth-year center Mitchell Saxen has been steady and consistent. Arizona transfer forward Paulius Murauskas has fit in nicely, solidifying the interior presence for the Gaels. Saint Mary’s forces opponents into tough shots and rarely gives up offensive rebounds. On the other end, Saint Mary’s ranks second in the country in offensive rebounding, which can mask the team’s inefficiency on jump shots. To add to their pedestrian shooting numbers from the field, the Gaels are woefully bad at the charity stripe, ranking 272nd at 69.5% on free throws. Bennett’s tournament track record isn’t pretty, although each year is a new opportunity to buck previous trends. 

8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12)

• Strength: Blocking shots 

• Weakness: Three-point defense

• X-Factor: C KeShawn Murphy

Mississippi State is a very physical and scrappy team. The offense runs through guard Josh Hubbard, a quick trigger scorer who takes a high volume of shots. Big man KeShawn Murphy comes off the bench, but is the Bulldogs’ best interior scorer (56.6% from the field) and top shot-blocker. Mississippi State’s offense is most effective inside, where they shoot 55.2% (43rd), while struggling from beyond the arc at just 31.4% (297th). They suffer from similar woes from three-point range on the other side, allowing 36.1% (314th) of threes to fall. The Bulldogs are good at forcing turnovers, but will find themselves in trouble when opposing offenses line up their jump shots. Mississippi State is solid, though I highly doubt they have what it takes to upset Duke in a potential second round matchup.

9 Baylor Bears (19-14)

• Strength: Explosiveness

• Weakness: Three-point defense

• X-Factor: G VJ Edgecombe

Baylor entered the season with title ambitions, but has yet to find a rhythm and hope to start clicking come tournament time. Freshman guard VJ Edgecombe has been as electric as advertised, consistently using his athleticism to get downhill and score. His shooting skills are hit-or-miss, but Edgecombe is a must-watch player. Forward Norchad Omier plays bigger than his size, averaging a double-double with 15.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Guard Robert Wright III has had a nice freshman year and entered the starting lineup mid-season, while veteran Duke transfer guard Jeremy Roach has had a very disappointing season and now comes off the bench. The Bears’ poor shot contesting and struggles to capitalize in clutch moments have caused them to lose more games than their talent would suggest they should. It’s not out of the question that Baylor starts peaking at the right time and their talent shines through, but be cautious in trusting this squad.

10 Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12)

• Strength: Limiting turnovers

• Weakness: Three-point defense

• X-Factor: G AJ Hoggard

In his first season in Nashville, coach Mark Byington has Vanderbilt back in March Madness for the first time since 2017. The Commodores are deep, but also have a clear lead scorer in guard Jason Edwards. Averaging 17 points a night, Edwards is a three-level scorer with a knack for drawing fouls. Wing Tyler Nickel is Vanderbilt’s top three-point shooter (40.6%), while forward Devin McGlockton locks down the paint. Like some other teams in this region, the Commodores are plagued by the three ball, ranking 337th in the country with opponents making 36.9% of three-point shots. They also are abnormally small for a power conference team, ranking 300th in height. The big wild card is fifth-year guard AJ Hoggard, who has struggled with efficiency this season, but has ample tournament experience from his time at Michigan State. I do believe Vanderbilt could make some noise with the right matchup, but Saint Mary’s is a tough draw for this small team. 

11 Virginia Commonwealth Rams (28-6)

• Strength: Defense

• Weakness: Foul trouble 

• X-Factor: G Max Shulga

VCU is the dangerous double-digit seed that is built to pull off upsets. It’s all about guard play on offense, led by Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile. Shulga, the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, is a consistent shooter and crafty distributor, while Bamisile is capable of hitting jump shots, but is more efficient going downhill and working toward the basket. The Rams stand out among high seeds with their size, as forward Jack Clark has emerged as the top scorer and rebounder of their big men. What makes VCU a true threat is their defense, which ranks number one in college basketball in effective field goal percentage at 44.4%. There is no such thing as an easy bucket against coach Ryan Odom’s team, which means opposing offenses have to work hard to earn their points. One trend that doesn’t bode as well for VCU is their foul frequency, sending the other team to the free-throw line way too often. As a whole, this team has the classic make up of a Cinderella with their dynamic guard play and tough defense. 

12 Liberty Flames (28-6)

• Strength: Three-point line

• Weakness: Size

• X-Factor: F Zach Cleveland

Like VCU, Liberty checks a lot of the boxes for scoring an upset. Their shooting metrics are elite, ranking fifth in three-point percentage (39.5%) and 14th in two-point percentage (57.7%). The Flames have three players averaging double figures: guards Taelon Peter and Kaden Metheny, both prolific shooters, and forward Zach Cleveland, who ranks among the best passing forwards in the game with 5.1 assists per game. For as good as Liberty can shoot it,  their biggest strength may be their perimeter defense and shot contesting. They rank third nationally in three-point defense, allowing just 28.0% of attempts to go in. In contrast to the aforementioned VCU, this team is incredibly small, ranking 347th in the height department. They already struggle on the offensive boards in Conference USA, so it’s not hard to imagine them having difficulty on the boards in a March matchup. If Liberty can maintain their high-level shooting, a trip to the Round of 32 and beyond is within reach. However, if they falter and fail to shoot at the consistent rate they’ve displayed all season, their run will likely end against Oregon.

13 Akron Zips (28-6)

• Strength: Two-point offense

• Weakness: Size

• X-Factor: G Sharron Young

Akron dominated the MAC this season, losing just one game in conference. It’s the Johnson show, with guards Nate Johnson and Tavari Johnson slotting in as the team’s top scorers. Nate is bigger and stronger, getting his points inside, while Tavari is a standout shooter from beyond the arc and at the free-throw line. Freshman guard Sharron Young shoots over 40% from three and could be a key contributor off the bench in the tournament. Akron’s bench and depth is a unique strength, with nine legit contributors available on a nightly basis. Forward James Okonkwo is the tallest Zip and de facto big man, but stands at only 6’8” on a team that ranks 361st in height. Akron has won all season with their current roster, and while their lack of size doesn’t eliminate their chances of pulling off upsets, it does narrow their margin for error in doing so.

14 Montana Grizzlies (25-9)

• Strength: Shooting efficiency

• Weakness: Interior defense  

• X-Factor: G Money Williams

Out of the Big Sky, Montana is known for its elite shooting efficiency. Led by sophomore guard Money Williams, the Grizzlies rank 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage (56.4%), with sharpshooters guard Malik Moore and forward Te’Jon Sawyer stretching defenses. On the flip side, their interior defense is a major weakness, struggling to protect the rim and defend inside with a roster that ranks 288th in height. The possibility of an upset bid for Montana hinges upon a scoring onslaught from Williams and Moore and Sawyer playing above his size on defense. Their shooting upside makes them a threat to compete, but winning games outright in the tournament will be tough for the Grizzlies.

15 Robert Morris Colonials (26-8)

• Strength: Blocking shots

• Weakness: Turnovers 

• X-Factor: G Kam Woods

Robert Morris is riding a 10-game winning streak and Horizon League title into March Madness. Forward Alvaro Folgueiras is a matchup nightmare, using a bag of post moves to score inside, while also shooting 42.3% from three. Lead guard Kam Woods is an excellent passer and gifted scorer, but is very streaky and inefficient. Both Woods and the offensive as a whole turn the ball over too frequently, placing 272nd nationally in turnover rate (18.5%). The Colonials rely heavily on their top six, rarely going deeper than seven players each night. Momentum into March shouldn’t be taken lightly or for granted, though I’d be shocked to see Robert Morris extend their winning streak and move on. 

16 American Eagles (22-12)

• Strength: Continuity 

• Weakness: Two-point defense

• X-Factor: F Matt Rogers

American benefited from 74.7% minutes continuity from last year’s team (first in the country) to win the Patriot League and get to the NCAA Tournament. Coach Duane Simpkins has a cohesive unit with a clear-cut star in forward Matt Rogers. Rogers is a capable scorer at all levels, shooting 56.7% from the field and 39.9% from beyond the arc. The biggest weakness for the Eagles is two-point defense, struggling to protect the paint. American can make it out of Dayton with strong shooting performances from Rogers and forward Greg Jones (45.1 3P%), but their journey almost certainly ends when (or if) they meet Duke.

16 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (22-12)

• Strength: Three-point defense

• Weakness: Turnovers

• X-Factor: G Dallas Hobbs

For the first time since moving to the MAAC in 2023, Mount St. Mary’s is dancing in March Madness. The Mountaineers placed fifth in the conference regular season standings, but pulled off a slew of upsets to earn the automatic bid. The team is led by forward Dola Adebayo, a strong inside scorer, and guard Dallas Hobbs, a high-volume shooter. Mount St. Mary’s excels at contesting shots, ranking 51st in three-point defense (31.4%) and 91st in two-point defense (48.7%). On the other side of the court, the Mountaineers rank 359th in turnovers, an impressively bad mark for an NCAA Tournament team. The whole offense ranks 294th in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, woof. Given their struggles with turnovers and offensive inefficiency, Mount St. Mary’s faces an uphill battle in March Madness. 

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you think will win the East Region? Let me know in the comments down below!

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