March Madness South Region Preview

This is March. The South Region is loaded from top to bottom, starting with heavyweights Auburn and Michigan State, then rounded out with possible Cinderellas UC San Diego and Yale. 

South Region

1 Auburn Tigers (28-5)

• Strength: Limiting turnovers

• Weakness: Foul trouble

• X-Factor: F Chad Baker-Mazara

Auburn’s late season slide (losing three of their last four games) is worth noting, but their dominance over the course of the entire season helped them earn the number one overall seed. The Tigers offense (second on KenPom) is efficient inside and out, led by SEC Player of the Year and National Player of the Year contender forward Johni Broome and complemented by a cast of playmaking guards in Miles Kelly, Denver Jones, and true freshman Tahaad Pettiford. Bruce Pearl’s squad doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but they tend to foul too often, ranking 317th in defensive free-throw rate. The key for Auburn is getting consistency from wing Chad Baker-Mazara, a talented scorer with an attitude that often gets him (and his team) in trouble. With Baker-Mazara locked in, there’s no ceiling on what this team can accomplish.

2 Michigan State Spartans (27-6)

• Strength: Three-point defense

• Weakness: Three-point shooting

• X-Factor: G Jase Richardson

In regular Tom Izzo fashion, this Michigan State team is physical, battle-tested, and ready for the March grind. The Spartans hoisted the Big Ten regular season title by three games, using their tenacious defense (fifth in KenPom) to grind out victories. Among the seven players scoring seven-plus points per game, guard Jase Richardson stands out as the player to watch. Michigan State shoots terribly from beyond the arc (30.8%, 327th), but Richardson is the exception, converting 41.2% of his three-pointers. The team’s lack of shooting efficiency might scare some folks, but Michigan State has the defense and depth to make a deep run into March. 

3 Iowa State Cyclones (24-9)

• Strength: Forcing turnovers 

• Weakness: Injuries

• X-Factor: F Milan Momcilovic

What coach T.J. Otzelberger has done in Ames is nothing short of terrific, turning Iowa State into a nationally relevant program in a few short years. This year’s squad is incredibly experienced and versatile, sound on both sides of the ball. Guard Curtis Jones is a bucket getter, while Saint Mary’s transfer forward Joshua Jefferson is a physical beast that averages over two steals per game. The trouble for the Cyclones is that star guard Keshon Gilbert (groin) has been ruled out for the entirety of the tournament, while his running mate guard Tamin Lipsey (lower body) isn’t 100%. Forward Milan Momcilovic, the team’s best three-pointer shooter and overall glue guy, is going to need to step up and produce on a greater scale if Iowa State wants to keep dancing and contend for a Final Four. 

4 Texas A&M Aggies (22-10)

• Strength: Offensive rebounding

• Weakness: Offensive efficiency

• X-Factor: G Wade Taylor IV

If you like rugged basketball, you’ll like Texas A&M. The Aggies are dominant on the glass, ranking first in the country in offensive rebounding. In terms of physicality, few if any teams can match up with the likes of big men Pharrel Payne, Henry Coleman III, Andersson Garcia, and Solomon Washington. Offensively, this team is incredibly streaky and generally inefficient. Guards Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps are dynamic scorers when they’re in a rhythm, but their cold spells are incredibly costly. If Taylor is hot, Buzz Williams’s team is capable of making a deep run, but if he’s cold, the Aggies could be in trouble early.

5 Michigan Wolverines (25-9)

• Strength: Big man play

• Weakness: Turnovers (both sides)

• X-Factor: G Nimari Burnett

What a difference a year makes, as 2024 Michigan was basement dwelling in the Big Ten, while 2025 Michigan won the conference tournament. Dusty May’s program revival has been fueled by dominant post play, headlined by the duo of transfer centers Vlad Goldin (Florida Atlantic) and Danny Wolf (Yale). The Wolverines are efficient inside on offense, while opposing teams score sparingly in the paint. How this team gets themselves into trouble is turning the ball over, as they rank 328th in turnover percentage. If Michigan can stick to their script and let their bigs get downhill, a Final Four isn’t out of the question, but they’ll have an early test with UC San Diego.

6 Ole Miss Rebels (22-11)

• Strength: Limiting turnovers

• Weakness: Rebounding 

• X-Factor: F Jaemyn Brakefield

Ole Miss isn’t sexy, but they’re quietly very sound and are incredibly experienced. They aren’t elite on offense, but the Rebels take great care of the ball (third in turnover rate) and have six players score in double figures. Guard Sean Pedulla is a treat to watch, while forward Jaemyn Brakefield is a physical presence that has been integral in the program’s tournament. The big pitfall for Ole Miss is their lack of size and subsequent struggle on the boards, which handicapped them against the elites of the SEC. That probably caps their ceiling, but Ole Miss is certainly capable of winning a few tournament games.

7 Marquette Golden Eagles (23-10)

• Strength: Limiting turnovers

• Weakness: Three-point shooting

• X-Factor: C Ben Gold

At one point, Marquette was poised to be a top five seed, but a big slide starting in February has them here. Guard Kam Jones is one of the best ball handlers in the sport, limiting turnovers and scoring efficiently downhill. Jones is capable of getting hot from three, as is forward David Joplin, but they are wildly inconsistent with the jump shot and often shoot themselves out of contention. Physicality is something that Marquette has struggled with at times, so a big tournament from center Ben Gold is imperative. Marquette’s roster is homegrown, experienced, and has a bonafide superstar, but their late season struggles are worrisome.

8 Louisville Cardinals (27-7)

• Strength: Two-point offense

• Weakness: Three-point shooting

• X-Factor: F Noah Waterman

If there is one team that is (justifiably) irate with their seeding, it’s Louisville. By all accounts, the Cardinals should’ve been seeded no lower than a six, but miraculously they’re here as an eight. Pat Kelsey’s quick turnaround has been powered by Wisconsin transfer guard Chucky Hepburn, who has broken out as an assertive scorer. The backcourt of Hepburn and fifth-year James Madison transfer Terrence Edwards Jr. poses fits for opposing defenses who don’t rotate quick enough. Louisville doesn’t shoot well from deep, so a resurgence from forward Noah Waterman—who has been an elite outside scorer at times in his career but has struggled mightily this season—could significantly improve their chances of reaching the second weekend.

9 Creighton Bluejays (24-10)

• Strength: Two-point offense

• Weakness: Turnovers (both sides)

• X-Factor: G Jamiya Neal

Creighton isn’t particularly deep, but they boast likely the most fearsome true high-low duo in the country. Both fifth-years, guard Steven Ashworth is a lights out shooter and savvy distributor, while center Ryan Kalkbrenner is virtually unguardable on the low block and looms as the four-time reigning Big East Defensive Player of the Year. The two-man game for the Bluejays is stellar, but the early season injury to Pop Isaacs left the team without a third musketeer. Guard Jamiya Neal is a stellar athlete and has shown flashes of outstanding play, so Greg McDermott is going to need to get the most out of Neal for his team to make noise in March.

10 New Mexico Lobos (26-7)

• Strength: Interior defense

• Weakness: Free-throw shooting

• X-Factor: G Donovan Dent

Despite losing a surplus of talent from their 2024 team, New Mexico is back in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive season. Guard Donovan Dent is electric, the recipient of the Mountain West Player of the Year and one of the most underrated playmakers in the country. Down low, Nelly Junior Joseph is a walking double-double that should seldom be left in one-on-one defense and is known to block shots en masse. The Lobos play at a blistering pace, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted tempo. Their struggles at the charity stripe, where they shoot 68.4% (307th), could be haunting down the stretch and is a real concern for coach Richard Pitino. They’re not as deep or talented as they were in 2024, but New Mexico is more than capable of pulling off an upset or two.

11 San Diego State Aztecs (21-9)

• Strength: Interior defense 

• Weakness: Jump shooting 

• X-Factor: C Magoon Gwath

By the skin of their teeth, San Diego State qualified for their fifth-straight NCAA Tournament. This iteration of the Aztecs is much younger than usual, but is built with the same defense-first DNA. FAU transfer guard Nick Boyd is the team’s leading scorer, while the main attraction is redshirt freshman center Magoon Gwath, who was honored as the Mountain West Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Gwath blocks shots with ease and uses his size to impose his will in the paint. Outside, the Aztecs don’t have any marksmen and go through lulls of pitiful shooting woes. To add, they shoot a bleak 66.7% (334th) from the free-throw line, even worse than their Mountain West foe New Mexico. All of that is to say that Brian Dutcher finds ways to win, and should they make it out of the First Four in Dayton, San Diego State is a sleeper for the second weekend.

11 North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13)

• Strength: Limiting turnovers

• Weakness: Forcing turnovers 

• X-Factor: G Ian Jackson

Inexplicably, North Carolina made the field of 68 with a 1-12 record in quadrant one games. Alas, the Tar Heels are in and they certainly don’t lack talent. Fifth-year guard RJ Davis is the engine that UNC runs off of and they’ll need him to shoot efficiently in order to win. The wild cards are the talented freshman guards Ian Jackson and Drake Powell, both of whom have had stretches of brilliance and could elevate the team’s ceiling. Defense isn’t North Carolina’s calling card, but they’re gonna have to lock in and compete on defense to be successful in March. The pieces are there for the Tar Heels, but their established track record of failure against good teams is tough to overlook.

12 UC San Diego Tritons (30-4)

• Strength: Forcing turnovers

• Weakness: Size 

• X-Factor: G Hayden Gray

The best story in college basketball, UC San Diego is dancing for the first time in program history in their first year of postseason eligibility. Don’t let the double-digit seed fool you, the Tritons are a fantastic basketball team. Compiled largely of non-D1 transfers, it starts with forward Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, the Big West Player of the Year and coach Eric Olen’s go-to guy. San Diego native guard Hayden Gray has the makings of a March legend; he’s a sniper from three (42.8%) and averages 3.2 steals per game. Guard Tyler McGhie, a fearless scorer at all levels, rounds out a legit top three in La Jolla. The only glaring concern is their lack of size, which starkly contrasts their first round opponent in Michigan. If UCSD can start hot and continue to pick pockets on defense like they have all season, their stay in the tournament could absolutely extend to the second weekend and beyond. 

13 Yale Bulldogs (22-7)

• Strength: Three-point shooting

• Weakness: Forcing turnovers 

• X-Factor: G John Poulakidas

Yale is back in the big dance for back-to-back seasons, despite losing center Danny Wolf to Michigan. James Jones is a masterful coach that led the Bulldogs to a dominant season in the Ivy League, in no small part because of guard John Poulakidas. Poulakidas is a silky shooter that can catch and score, but also create his own shot. Yale doesn’t take a ton of threes, but they’re incredibly efficient in making them, ranking ninth in the country at 38.5% from deep. Forward Nick Townsend does more of his work inside the arc, shooting 52.7% from the field. Scoring is far from an issue for Yale; however, apathy on defense and a failure to force turnovers remain clear weaknesses that could hamper them if they have an off-night shooting. Winning in March Madness as a double-digit seed is tough, but Yale did it last year versus Auburn and could do it again this year. 

14 Lipscomb Bisons (25-9)

• Strength: Free-throw shooting

• Weakness: Forcing turnovers 

• X-Factor: F Jacob Ognacevic

Lipscomb fended off several challengers to earn the automatic bid from the Atlantic Sun. F Jacob Ognacevic is a prolific scorer from all three levels and a tough rebounder that can pose matchup nightmares for the opposition. Behind Ognacevic, guard Joe Anderson is a steady shooter with strong court vision and passing skills. As a team, the Bisons grade out incredibly efficiently in the scoring department, standing out as seventh in the country at free-throw shooting (79.6%). With all of this good comes the tough reality that Lipscomb’s quality of competition is incredibly low and that high-major basketball is a different beast. Ognacevic is a stud, but it’s going to take a lot of things leaning Lipscomb’s way for them to earn their first tournament victory.

15 Bryant Bulldogs (23-11)

• Strength: Blocking shots

• Weakness: Forcing turnovers

• X-Factor: G Earl Timberlake

Bryant was the best team in the America East and comfortably took care of business to secure the automatic bid. Coach Phil Martelli Jr. has been able to rely on two guards with high-major experience in Rafael Pinzon and Earl Timberlake. Timberlake, who started his collegiate career at Miami, is shooting over 50% from the field and leads the team in both rebounds and assists. The Bulldogs play incredibly fast (seventh in adjusted tempo), which caused issues for American East opponents, but is likely to be contained better by a high seed. They also don’t shoot great from three (33.4%, 198th), which decreases the likelihood of an upset for Bryant. 

16 Alabama State Hornets (19-15)

• Strength: Limiting turnovers

• Weakness: Two-point offense 

• X-Factor: G CJ Hines

As the four seed in the SWAC Tournament, Alabama State avoided top seeded Southern and toppled Jackson State to clinch a tournament berth. It’s all about the guard play for the Hornets, as the trio of CJ Hines, Amarr Knox, and TJ Madlock all average over 12 points per game. Those guards are very protective of the ball, as the team has the fifth-best turnover percentage in the country. The issue, however, is Alabama State is impressively inefficient inside for a tournament team, ranking 344th in two-point percentage at 45.4%. The Hornets can make it out of Dayton, but the chances of staying in the tournament past the Round of 64 are slim to none.

16 Saint Francis Red Flash (16-17)

• Strength: Three-point defense

• Weakness: Turnovers

• X-Factor: G Riley Parker

Easily the most surprising team to make the tournament, Saint Francis rolls into Dayton with a below-.500 record after picking off Central Connecticut, the heavy favorite to win the NEC. The Red Flash score primarily through their guards and from beyond the arc, with guard Riley Parker leading the team in points per game (13.4) and three-point percentage (39.9%). Saint Francis ranks 70th for free-throw rate allowed and 92nd in three-point defense, but is otherwise outside the top 100 in virtually every other statistic. Just making the NCAA Tournament is truly an incredible feat for this team and that shouldn’t be forgotten, regardless of how they perform in Dayton and (possibly) vs Auburn.

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you think will win the South Region? Let me know in the comments down below!

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