March Madness Midwest Region Preview

This is March. The Midwest Region is tough, featuring programs like Houston and Tennessee, who are looking to break through in the postseason, along with first-time participants like High Point and SIU Edwardsville.

Midwest Region

1 Houston Cougars (30-4)

• Strength: Two-point defense

• Weakness: Two-point offense

• X-Factor: G Milos Uzan

For the third straight season, Houston earned a one seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Kelvin Sampson identity of winning with gritty defense remains, but this iteration of the Cougars is more offensively skilled than previous teams. Guards L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are knockdown shooters that have improved their efficiency in their second and third seasons at Houston, respectively. Add in Oklahoma transfer guard Milos Uzan, a keen passer with a smooth jump shot, and the Cougars have a trio of guards that shoot over 42% from beyond the arc. As a team, they shoot 39.8% on three-pointers, good for fourth in the country. Houston isn’t conventionally tall, but they’re strong with forward J’Wan Roberts as the anchor down low. Few teams alter shots better than this group, ranking fourth in defensive effective field goal percentage at 44.9%. The only data point that sticks out against Houston is their inefficiency on two-pointers, shooting 49.0% (268th) from inside the arc. Overall, not only does Houston give forty minutes of hell on defense, but they also have offensive firepower to run teams out of the arena.

 2 Tennessee Volunteers (27-7)

• Strength: Three-point defense

• Weakness: Three-point shooting

• X-Factor: F Igor Milicic

The DNA of Tennessee remains the same, they force opposing teams into tough shots and control the game with active defense. This year’s roster is very different from last year’s, but guard Zakai Zeigler remains the heart and soul of the Volunteers. Zeigler is scoring at the highest rate of his career, while still dishing out dazzling assists and racking up steals. He’s enjoyed playing off of North Florida transfer guard Chaz Lanier, a pure scorer with a consistent three-point stroke. The Swiss Army knife and player to watch for Tennessee is forward Igor Milicic Jr., who has exploded in some games, but also disappeared in other big contests. By the stats, Rick Barnes’ team ranks third in adjusted defense (KenPom), second in effective field goal percentage (44.2%), and first in three-point defense (27.8%). Conversely, the Volunteers are mediocre at shooting the three, converting at a 34.0% rate (167th). In theory, Tennessee absolutely has what it takes to make the Final Four, but they’re going to have to buck their previous track record of falling short in March and have Barnes break through his dubious nickname, “Regular Season Rick.” 

3 Kentucky Wildcats (22-11)

• Strength: Three-point shooting

• Weakness: Forcing turnovers

• X-Factor: G/F Koby Brea

The Mark Pope homecoming has been an unequivocal success in year one, as Kentucky slots in as a three seed. Oklahoma transfer guard Otega Oweh has been a breakout star, averaging 16.2 points per game after scoring 11.4 per night last season. Wing Koby Brea is arguably the best shooter in college basketball, hitting 43.9% of his shots from deep. San Diego State transfer guard Lamont Butler has also taken strides offensively, while remaining as one of the best pure defenders in the country. Injuries have been a real challenge for the Wildcats, as Butler missed several games and guard Jaxson Robinson (wrist) is out for the season. These injuries have played a role in Kentucky’s mediocre defense, which ranks 289th in two-point defense (53.7%) and 341st in turnover rate (14.0%). They’ve been fighting through adversity all season long, so if nothing else, the Wildcats are prepared for the potential perils of March. Some sweet shooting can get them to the Round of 32, but it’s going to take some major strides on defense for Kentucky to reach the Final Four.

4 Purdue Boilermakers (22-11)

• Strength: Three-point shooting 

• Weakness: Two-point defense

• X-Factor: G Fletcher Loyer

Life without Zach Edey is different, but Purdue is still playing great basketball. The Boilermakers once again boast the Big Ten Player of the Year, this time with guard Braden Smith earning the honor. Smith has paired his incredible passing abilities with more assertive runs of scoring, staking a claim as the best point guard in college. His partner in crime is big man Trey Kaufman-Renn, who averages over 20 points per game. Kaufman-Renn thrives in the low post, but Purdue excels from beyond the arc, ranking 10th nationally with a 38.5% three-point shooting percentage. Guard Fletcher Loyer leads the way, shooting 46.4% from long-range. The vacated presence of Edey is felt greatly in the paint on defense, where the Boilermakers rank 350th in two-point defense at 56.4%. Purdue has a potent offense with a trio of playmakers, but their lack of depth scoring and mediocre defense puts a ceiling on how far they can go in March.

5 Clemson Tigers (27-6)

• Strength: Three-point shooting

• Weakness: Getting to the free-throw line

• X-Factor: C Viktor Lahkin

Clemson has followed up their 2024 Elite Eight run with an even better season, entering the tournament with only six losses. Guard Chase Hunter has kicked it into another gear in his sixth season in orange, averaging 16.4 points and raising his three-point percentage 10(!) points to 41.2%. Hunter isn’t the only Tiger that’s been cooking, as forward Ian Schieffelin is nearly averaging a double-double with his physical brand of basketball. Cincinnati transfer Viktor Lakhin has had a strong season, and his continued high-level play will be vital to Clemson’s chances of making a deep run in March. The team plays a very slow and methodical style, forcing opposing offenses to use the whole shot clock to try and get an open look. A specific facet that Brad Brownell’s squad struggled with is getting to the free-throw line, as the Tigers rank 315 in free-throw rate. Altogether, Clemson is a sneaky under-the-radar pick to advance to the second weekend and potentially return to the Elite Eight.

6 Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12)

• Strength: Two-point defense 

• Weakness: Forcing turnovers

• X-Factor: G Kylan Boswell

It’s been a season of ups and downs in Champaign for Illinois. The Illini possess one of the best freshman guards in the country in Kasparas Jakucionis. Jakucionis, a projected lottery pick, is a skilled scorer, active rebounder, and smart passer, but frequently struggles with turnovers. Center Tomislav Ivisic has dealt with injuries and illnesses, but is a formidable force in the paint, when healthy. The offense is most efficient when they work inside through Ivisic and forward Will Riley, as indicated by their 57.8% mark on two-pointers. When he’s on, guard Kylan Boswell is fantastic at getting downhill and scoring down low, but it’s virtually impossible to predict what version of Boswell we’ll see on each given night. Illinois isn’t bad on defense, but they don’t force any turnovers, ranking 360th in turnover percentage at 12.7%. The message all season has been that the Fighting Illini are immensely talented (which they are) and will be underseeded compared to their potential. That rhetoric isn’t wrong, but I’m skeptical to trust Illinois.

7 UCLA Bruins (22-10)

• Strength: Forcing turnovers

• Weakness: Free-throw shooting

• X-Factor: C Adey Mara

After missing the NCAA Tournament last season, coach Mick Cronin has guided UCLA back into March Madness. Oregon State transfer forward Tyler Bilodeau quickly established himself as the offensive focal point, using crafty moves and sweet technique to get himself open shots. Of Cronin’s slew of guards, Eric Dailey Jr. has had the most productive season, shooting 40% from three-point range. The Bruins grind out victories by winning in the margins and forcing turnovers, as they rank seventh in the country in turnover rate at 22.8%. Their defensive intensity opens the door, but UCLA’s lack of dynamic play on offense sometimes hinders their ability to close out games. Center Aday Mara can be a real difference-maker. Though he averages just 6.3 points in 12.6 minutes per game, he demonstrated his potential with more playing time during a three-game stretch earlier this season against Wisconsin, Washington, and USC. Ultimately, UCLA is a good team, but not a great one, with a ceiling on its tournament potential.

8 Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-8)

• Strength: Two-point offense

• Weakness: Getting to the free-throw line

• X-Factor: G Ryan Nembhard

Gonzaga comes into the tournament with its worst seeding since 2016, when they were an 11 seed. The Bulldogs are built on offensive firepower, primarily revolving around center Graham Ike. Ike can back down into the paint and score, but he can also curl out and make jump shots. Guards Khalif Battle and Nolan Hickman are great scorers, but it’s Ryan Nembhard that orchestrates the Gonzaga offense. Nembhard’s 9.8 assists per game is the best mark in the country, demonstrating just how savvy of a maestro he is. As a team, defense isn’t an overwhelming strength, but it also isn’t exactly a weakness for the Bulldogs, who rank 29th in KenPom’s adjusted defense metric. There are just some lapses here and there, which contributed to more conference losses than usual. Making a run as an eight (or nine) seed is tough, given that the one seed awaits in the Round of 32, but Gonzaga certainly isn’t your average eight seed. 

9 Georgia Bulldogs (20-12)

• Strength: Blocking shots

• Weakness: Turnovers 

• X-Factor: G Silas Demary Jr.

Georgia was on the wrong side of the bubble in late February, but a four-game winning streak, led by a victory over Florida, helped flip the Bulldogs into the field. Offensively, Georgia relies on two players: guard Silas Demary Jr. and center Asa Newell. Demary has taken a sophomore leap with an improved jump shot, while Newell is a flashy five-star freshman that dominates the paint. The Bulldogs’ success largely hinges on closing out on jump shots, a task they excel at, as evidenced by their 29th ranking in effective field goal percentage (47.2%) and 12th in block percentage (14.7%). What can hinder this team and plagued them in the middle of conference play is their tendency to turn the ball over, ranking 293rd (18.9%) in turnover rate on offense. Georgia can compete with any team, it’s just integral that they take care of the basketball in order to pull out a win.

10 Utah State Aggies (26-7)

• Strength: Guard play

• Weakness: Two-point defense

• X-Factor: G Ian Martinez

Utah State struggled down the stretch, but built up a strong enough resume to safely remain in the field, which could spell bad news for the heavyweights. The Aggies live and die with their backcourt duo of Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev. Martinez, a fifth-year at his third school, is an established fearless scorer with tons of experience. Conversely, Falslev is a sophomore that’s actively blossoming into a star with impeccable efficiency, shooting 50.4% from the field and 40.0% from three. With an onslaught of guards leading the way, a consequence for Utah State has been subpar two-point defense that ranks 257th at 52.6%. The lack of quality length is a concern, but dynamic guards often shine in March, and the Aggies have two in Martinez and Falslev.

11 Texas Longhorns (19-15)

• Strength: Talent

• Weakness: Foul trouble

• X-Factor: G Tre Johnson

Two big wins in the SEC Tournament ultimately proved to be enough to push Texas into the field of 68, despite a lackluster record. The Longhorns are easy to dream on because they’re oozing with talent, starting with freshman G Tre Johnson. Johnson is the definition of a bucket-getter, averaging 19.8 points per game and shooting 39.2% from deep. Around Johnson, Texas is equipped with a slew of veterans, most prominently forward Arthur Kaluma and guards Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope. Kaluma and Mark both have notable tournament experience, which is a major plus. Texas does a good job taking care of the ball, ranking 18th in turnover percentage, but struggles with scoring inside, sitting 145th with a 51.8% shooting rate on two-pointers. Combined with inconsistent three-point defense (33.3%, ranked 144th) and surrendering too many free throws, these issues have contributed to a troubling number of losses. To reiterate, Texas is brimming with talent and SHOULD be a contender for a deep tournament run. However, their struggles to find ways to win all season raise doubts about their ability to figure things out now, making it risky to expect much from them at this stage.

11 Xavier Musketeers (21-11)

• Strength: Three-point shooting

• Weakness: Three-point defense

• X-Factor: G Ryan Conwell

Xavier narrowly earned a date in Dayton, driven by a seven-game winning streak to conclude the regular season. The Musketeers are an elite three-point shooting team, shooting 38.8% (sixth in the country) as a whole. Guard Ryan Conwell is the team’s biggest sniper, shooting 41.8% from beyond the arc as part of his 16.8 points per game average. Big man Zach Freemantle is a fifth-year player with a deep bag of moves to score down low consistently. Xavier does a great job passing on offense to create open looks, but struggles on the other end to rotate and contest shots. To illustrate, in both two-point and three-point defense, the Musketeers rank outside the top 150 nationally. Xavier is an experienced team that shoots it well with a fun high-low duo, they just need a little more intensity on defense.

12 McNeese Cowboys (27-6)

• Strength: Forcing turnovers

• Weakness: Size

• X-Factor: G DJ Richards Jr.

Will Wade is back for a second (and possibly final) March Madness with McNeese, coming off of a dominant season in the Southland Conference. The Cowboys are very balanced on both sides of the ball, grading at 63rd in offense and 65th in defense on KenPom. Guards Javohn Garcia and Sincere Parker both score about a dozen points, most effectively going downhill inside the arc. Conversely, guard DJ Richards Jr. is a lethal shooter who scores almost exclusively from beyond the arc, shooting 45.0% on three-point attempts. Forward Joe Charles has filled his role well as a big man this season, but is certain to have his hands full with the likes of Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin of Clemson. McNeese’s lack of huge bodies clearly wasn’t an issue in the Southland, but the NCAA Tournament is an astronomically different landscape. McNeese is a quality mid-major team, they just got a tough draw and have a limited margin of error in their attempt to pull off an upset. 

13 High Point Panthers (29-5)

• Strength: Offensive efficiency

• Weakness: Forcing turnovers

• X-Factor: G Kezza Giffa

Dating back to January 18th, High Point has won 14 straight games and enters March Madness hotter than ever. Their offensive profile is elite, ranking 12th in effective field goal percentage (56.4%) and 25th overall in adjusted offense on KenPom. Guards Kezza Giffa and D’Maurian Williams are both excellent scorers, with Giffa averaging a point more per game. However, Williams is the more efficient player between the two, shooting 46.9% from two and 39.8% from three. Former Kansas guard Bobby Pettiford is another contributor for the Panthers, averaging 8.9 points off the bench. Scoring isn’t an issue for High Point, but getting stops may be. In adjusted defensive efficiency, the Panthers rank 226th. Opposing teams don’t shoot crazy numbers against them, rather High Point struggles to force turnovers and corral rebounds. High Point has the offense to not only stay afloat in a shootout, but advance. The defense, however, could hold the Panthers back and leave them in the Round of 64. 

14 Troy Trojans (23-10)

• Strength: Offensive rebounding

• Weakness: Three-point shooting

• X-Factor: F Thomas Dowd

Troy impressively cruised through the Sun Belt Tournament to earn the automatic bid to March Madness. This is a unique team, made up primarily of a plethora of athletic and lengthy wings. Guard Tayton Conerway is their leading scorer at 14.3 points per game, while also averaging 2.9 steals per game. On one hand, the Trojans rank sixth nationally in offensive rebounding and 20th in two-point defense (46.2%). On the other hand, they rank 339th in shooting threes (30.3%) and 292nd in allowing offensive rebounds. Troy’s defense is generally great, but they struggle mightily to rebound on that end. Forward Thomas Dowd, the team’s leading rebounder, is going to need to do yeoman’s work on the glass if Troy wants a chance at beating Kentucky. Truth be told, the Trojans’ offensive shortcomings may be too significant to overcome in order to capture a win.

15 Wofford Terriers (19-15)

• Strength: Two-point offense

• Weakness: Defense

• X-Factor: G Corey Tripp

Wofford had only managed a three-game winning streak once during the regular season, but they flipped the script by winning three straight games in three days during the Southern Conference Tournament, earning an invite to the NCAA Tournament. Senior guard Corey Tripp is the heartbeat on offense, averaging 14.3 points on 43.9% shooting. C Kyler Filewich is infamous for his free-throw form, but is actually a well-rounded big who can score, rebound, and pass. The Terriers love shooting threes, but are more efficient shooting inside the arc. The big obstacle for Wofford’s Cinderella hopes is its defense, which doesn’t force a ton of turnovers, nor does it contest shots well. They’re in the top 35 for rebounding on both ends, but the size difference between their usual conference opponents and Tennessee is worth noting. If Tripp is able to start hot from three, then the Terriers could drag the contest out. In order to outright beat Tennessee, however, it’s going to take a special scoring performance against an elite defense. 

16 SIU Edwardsville Cougars (22-11)

• Strength: Two-point defense

• Weakness: Two-point offense

• X-Factor: G Ray’Sean Taylor

For the first time in program history, SIU Edwardsville is in the NCAA Tournament. This remarkable feat couldn’t have been captured without guard Ray’Sean Taylor, the team’s leading scorer and a four-year starter. If the ball isn’t in Ray’Sean’s hands, it very well could be with guard Brian Taylor II, the team’s most efficient scorer at 48.6% from the field and 47.1% from three. The Cougars struggle to score efficiently inside, shooting 47.8% (296th) from two-point distance. They do, however, play great interior defense, as opponents are shooting only 46.3% (22nd) on two-pointers. That defense will face a much stiffer test in the tournament with the athletes of Houston on the other side. The result of their game may not be pretty, but that shouldn’t take away from such a joyous accomplishment for SIUE in making its first March Madness.

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you think will win the Midwest Region? Let me know in the comments down below!

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