NL Central X-Factors

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The NL Central is intriguing heading into 2023; Can the Milwaukee Brewers still win as their roster is trimmed? Will the Chicago Cubs spending spree prove to be worth it? In this article, I highlighted a key player to watch on each NL Central team and what I make of them moving forward. This article is more focused on singular players than full teams, but if you choose to draw conclusions from the way I formatted the order of my list from one to five, then so be it!

St. Louis Cardinals- RHP Jack Flaherty

Dating back to his first full season in 2018, when he posted a 3.34 ERA/3.86 FIP/3.58 xFIP in 151.0 IP, Jack Flaherty seemed poised to take over the reins as a pure ace for the St. Louis Cardinals. He continued to progress in 2019 with a 2.75 ERA/3.46 FIP/3.64 xFIP across 196.1 IP, but he’s only thrown 154.2 IP across the last three seasons. Across the last full two seasons, Flaherty has made a combined 23 starts without great results. His 2021 numbers (3.22 ERA/4.22 FIP/3.96 xFIP) were respectable, but he just didn’t look like himself. Then, he looked totally out of whack in his few 2022 appearances, posting marks of 4.25 ERA/4.97 FIP/4.93 xFIP in 36.0 IP with a 5.50 BB/9. Health permitting, Flaherty dominates hitters with a quartet of pitches, mainly via the fastball and slider. His fastball was hit hard and his slider generated fewer whiffs in 2022, though, which would be a major issue moving forward. All in all, Jack Flaherty has the tools to be a front-line starter for many years to come, he just needs to stay healthy, re-find conviction in his fastball, and deflate his BB/9 closer to his career average.

Milwaukee Brewers- OF/DH Jesse Winker

As a member of the Cincinnati Reds, Jesse Winker looked like a rising star, a formidable slugger that NL teams would fear for years to come. Across roughly his last 162 games in Cincinnati, Winker had a wRC+ above 140 and hit 36 HRs. Upon being traded to Seattle last offseason, Winker took a huge step back as a Mariner. His elite plate discipline remained (99th percentile in BB% and chase rate), but his SLG% dropped to .344. For whatever reason, Winker simply stopped making hard contact and barreling the baseball. His 2022 wRC+ wound up at a respectable 108, but that may be a product of poor offensive output across the league, as his OPS was only .688. If Winker were to continue to produce similar numbers to his 2022 season moving forward, he’d be a competent role player, largely due to his top-tier plate discipline. But with another change of scenery, I think Jesse Winker is capable of a resurgence. There isn’t exactly an underlying metric that explains his lack of power from last season, but it’s so far off from his career mark(s) that I believe it was an outlier. Maybe he won’t be a 140 wRC+ hitter, but he should be able to slide in to fill the void of the departed Hunter Renfroe.

Chicago Cubs- SS Dansby Swanson

After a 74-88 campaign in 2022, the Chicago Cubs went on a mini shopping spree this offseason. The crown jewel was SS Dansby Swanson, a former number one overall draft choice in 2015. Swanson signed a 7yr/$177m deal that will pay him an average of $25.3m until he’s 35. Dansby is coming off of his best season in the majors, where he slashed .277/.329/.447 with a 116 wRC+, 25 HRs, 18 SBs, 9 DRS, and 6.4 fWAR. By all accounts, that is a fantastic season for a shortstop and would certainly lead Swanson to getting a big payday in free agency. If Swanson can mirror his 2022 performance moving forward, he will be a cornerstone piece for Chicago. My concern, however, is that he has a 94 career wRC+ and 2022 was the only full season where he ranked as an above-average hitter. His defense has been routinely stellar, but the Cubs aren’t paying for him just for fielding purposes. It is encouraging that he has been hitting the ball harder and harder each year, but he whiffs often and rarely generates walks, which lower his floor. Throughout his career, Swanson has feasted against fastballs, but has been subpar against breaking pitches, which is worth noting. This isn’t meant to be a hit piece on Dansby Swanson, I’m a big fan of his, but I’m not sold that he can be a true star and be the face of a franchise. If Swanson can deliver on the big contract, the Cubs could be a surprise team in 2023 and be set up to contend for the years to come.

Pittsburgh Pirates- 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

The Pittsburgh Pirates remain far away from playoff contention, but they have a few players that could play pivotal roles for the team (if or) when they start turning it around. 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes was a well-known prospect before making his major league debut in 2020. He was incredible in his 24 games that season, slashing .376/.442/.682 with a 194 wRC+ and .464 wOBA. Since then, he has been a very mediocre hitter, posting a slashline of .244/.314/.345 with an 88 wRC+ last season. If he’s been such a mediocre hitter, why should we care about Hayes or hype him up? Well, Ke’Bryan Hayes is one of the best defenders to play the sport in many years, as he led the league with 24 DRS in 2022 and has compiled a career total of 44 DRS in just three seasons. Frankly, it’s hilarious that Hayes hasn’t been recognized as a gold or platinum glover, but that’s a discussion for another day. So basically, if Hayes can be a slightly above average hitter, he’ll be one of the most valuable players in the National League. I am cautiously optimistic that he can turn the corner at the plate, given that he hits the ball hard and doesn’t swing and miss a ton. The fix for Hayes is painfully obvious, but not something that can be done overnight; he needs to stop hitting ground balls. He’s in the 84th percentile of hard hit percentage, but that “power” is sabotaged by a career 52.4 ground ball percentage. When he raked in 2020, his launch angle was at 7.4, but it dwindled down to 5.2 in 2022, which is substantially lower than the league average of 12.1. Ke’Bryan Hayes has solid bat to ball skills and is capable of slugging the ball, he simply must lift the ball more often. He’s only 26 and I believe Hayes can progress as a hitter to couple with his Hall of Fame caliber defense.

Cincinnati Reds- RHP Hunter Greene

The Cincinnati Reds were a tough watch in 2022, no doubt. But when #21 was on the mound, baseball fans across the country would tune in. #21 would be Hunter Greene, the former #2 overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft and one of the most exciting pitching prospects in a long time. What makes Greene so fun to watch is his elite velocity, as his fastball averages 99.0 MPH and he shattered MLB records when he threw 30 pitches above 101 MPH against the St. Louis Cardinals last September. Across 125.1 IP, the big righty amassed a 4.44 ERA, 4.37 FIP, and 3.64 xFIP. With his fireball fastball, Greene racked up a nice 11.95 K/9, but has many areas of his game that he can improve upon. When batters connect with Greene’s fastball, it is usually rocketed, as opposing hitters have a .512 SLG% and 17 HRs against his fastball. Simply put, Hunter Greene cannot rely solely on his fastball to be great in the big leagues. His slider is a pretty devastating pitch that can generate whiffs, but he has no true tertiary pitch, which can be a huge barrier for starting pitchers succeeding. Greene could cut down on the walks (3.44 BB/9) and try to raise his groundball rate (29.3 GB%), but he’s a pure power pitcher that doesn’t need those numbers to drastically change in order to perform well. Greene’s HR/FB ratio was one of the worst in the league, but that’s a statistic that should (somewhat) regress to the mean and benefit him moving forward. 2023 will be huge for Hunter Greene, as we’ll see what he can do across a full season and if he can develop a useful third pitch to his repertoire. I doubt that Greene will be a consistent sub 3.00 ERA guy with incredible consistency, but I believe he’ll get to the point of being a fearsome matchup for opposing teams.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! What players do you think will be pivotal in the NL Central? What team is going to win the division? Let me know in the comments below!

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