NL East X-Factors

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The NL East is loaded with title contenders, ranging from the dominant Atlanta Braves, to the hot Philadelphia Phillies, and rounded off with the big money New York Mets. In this article, I highlighted a key player to watch on each NL East team and what I make of them moving forward. This article is more focused on singular players than full teams, but if you choose to draw conclusions from the way I formatted the order of my list from one to five, then so be it!

Atlanta Braves- OF Ronald Acuña Jr.

Among players on this list, Ronald Acuña Jr is by far the biggest star. So why is he on this list? Prior to injuring himself in 2021, Acuña was on track to compete for the MVP award with a slash line of .283/.394/.596 with a 157 wRC+, 24 HRs, and a 4.3 fWAR in just 82 Gs. Acuña watched from afar as his team won the World Series that season, just waiting for the opportunity to return from his torn ACL. His return in 2022 wasn’t bad by any means, but it wasn’t the Acuña that the sport was accustomed to seeing. In 119 Gs, Ronald slashed .266/.351/.413 with a 114 wRC+, 15 HRs, and a 2.2 fWAR. His numbers were above average compared to the league, but he didn’t look like his superstar self at surface level. Returning from such a gruesome injury is challenging, so it was unfair to expect him to immediately match his previous production. The underlying stats indicate that Acuña was closer to his peak form than it seemed, as he ranked in the 98th percentile of max exit velocity and the 92nd percentile for hard hit rate. One of the greatest signs that point towards a resurgence for Acuña is his xSLG, which sat at .486 in 2022, compared to his actual season SLG% of .413. With another offseason of recovery and progression for Acuña behind him, I am a staunch believer in that he’ll return to MVP form moving forward.

New York Mets- RHP Kodai Senga

Amidst a busy offseason that included the departure of RHP Jacob deGrom, as well as the arrival of future Hall of Fame RHP Justin Verlander, the Mets dipped into the international market with Kodai Senga. Senga’s base deal is worth $75 million over 5 years, and when you look at his NPB stats, it’s easy to see why Steve Cohen made this investment. Across 11 seasons in the NPB, Senga posted an ERA of 2.59, including a 1.94 mark in 2022 over 144 IP. He has the makings of a frontline starter, as his fastball can approach 100 MPH and his “ghost” forkball looks unhittable. Where Senga needs to improve is his control, as his BB/9 was about 3.40. Additionally, Senga has only eclipsed 170 IP twice in his career and comes with some durability concerns. Will he be able to make 30 starts a year? That remains to be seen, but Kodai Senga should be one of the most fascinating and exciting pitchers to watch this upcoming season.

Philadelphia Phillies- RHP Taijuan Walker

The Philadelphia Phillies had an improbable run to the World Series in 2022, which led to GM Dave Dombrowski going all in this offseason. SS Trea Turner is the headliner, but the Phillies also added former Mets RHP Taijuan Walker to fill the middle of their rotation. As a whole, Walker’s 2022 numbers are quite nice. A 3.49 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and a 3.88 xFIP across 157.1 IP is super solid. However, his season was a tale of two halves, as he sported a 2.55 ERA/2.97 FIP in the first half of the season, but a disastrous 4.80 ERA/4.59 FIP during the second half. He was so ineffective that he was left off the 2022 Wild Card roster. The splits were even crazier in 2021, as Walker had a 2.66 ERA/3.06 FIP in the first half to garner an All-Star Game invitation, but a line of 7.13 ERA/6.79 FIP to conclude the second half. His career ERA sits below 4.00 at a respectable 3.89, but I have a hard time buying the hype. He doesn’t generate whiffs or produce strikeouts, but he isn’t a contact manager either. My guess is he’ll continue the trend of performing well to start the year, but run out of gas and crash and burn as the season goes on. He’ll be making $18 million for the next 4 years, which is simply too rich for my blood.

Miami Marlins- 2B/OF Jazz Chisholm Jr.

You like Jazz? Well, clearly the Miami Marlins do! Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been an exciting player since his days as a prospect, but it appears he’s on the verge of turning a major corner. In his first full season in 2021, Chisholm slashed .248/.303/.425 with a 97 wRC+ and 1.9 fWAR. He stole 23 bases and played great defense, but his bat wasn’t quite there. His splits were interesting, as he posted a respectable 103 wRC+ vs righties and a measly 81 wRC+ against lefties. Additionally, he had a 111 wRC+ in the first half of 2021, but a disappointing 79 wRC+ to conclude the season. In 2022, Jazz took a huge leap, especially in terms of power, as he slashed .254/.325/.535 with a 139 wRC+. The issue? He only appeared in 60 games due to injury. Furthermore, his splits became even more drastic with a 158 wRC+ vs righties, but an abominable 45 wRC+ against lefties. Jazz was recognized as an All-Star in 2022 and deserves credit for his performance, but there is plenty for him to improve on. His swing is as smooth as silk and should continue to produce power, but he needs to be more conscious of his swing decisions and could use to improve his walk rate. Referring back, it is imperative that Chisholm stabilizes his splits and improves against left-handed pitching. He doesn’t need to be above average against lefties to be greatly successful, but it would benefit him significantly if he could simply creep towards average numbers against southpaws. Lastly, Chisholm was a steady defender at the keystone, but will be transitioning to the outfield this season. He’s a world-class athlete with eye-popping speed, which leads me to think he’ll transition well to CF, but it’s worth noting. I am a huge believer in Jazz Chisholm Jr. moving forward. He might not be/become the most well-rounded hitter, but he hits the ball hard, has possibly the nicest swing in baseball, and impacts the game with his immense speed. Maybe he won’t be a top five player in baseball, but he’s a must-watch player and a key figure for the Marlins.

Washington Nationals- LHP MacKenzie Gore

With Juan Soto gone, the emphasis for the Washington Nationals has become fielding and developing young talent. The majority of players that Washington received in the Soto trade likely won’t crack the big leagues this year, with LHP MacKenzie Gore likely being an exception. Gore has had a rollercoaster of a career thus far, as he was picked third overall by the Padres out of high school and quickly became one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Then, the pandemic struck in 2020 and Gore struggled immensely, with many citing the lack of a formal minor league season and a lack of competition being the reason. Going into 2021, he was still uncomfortable and out of whack mechanically, which led the Padres to have him spend the majority of his time at their complex in Arizona and only log 34.0 IP across the minor leagues. After 2021, the lefty from North Carolina had lost almost all prospect notoriety and no longer looked like San Diego’s future ace. Alas, some slight mechanical tweaks and improved control in Spring Training led Gore to be called up a few weeks into the 2022 season. He was dazzling to start the season, but eventually hit a wall and had his development come to a halt when he suffered an elbow injury. Gore’s statline of a 4.50 ERA/4.11 FIP/4.42 xFIP across 70.0 IP isn’t stunning at surface level and his injury was notable, but the flashes he had shown were bright enough for the Nationals to acquire him. Gore’s rehab from injury effectively wiped out the rest of his 2022 season, although he logged 12.0 (unimpressive) IP with Washington’s AAA affiliate in September. So who is MacKenzie Gore? Is he the guy that had a 1.02 ERA in High-A and was regarded as the top pitching prospect in the sport? Or is he another bust that simply doesn’t have what it takes to be a quality big leaguer? My guess is he’s somewhere in the middle. His fastball isn’t ridiculously high in velocity (94.8 vFA), but he throws it with zip and conviction. His curveball also projects to be a plus pitch, as he’s showcased the ability to generate whiffs with it below the zone, as well as drop it in for strikes. After those two, he could improve on additional breaking pitches, given that his slider and changeup were hit well. The number one thing MacKenzie Gore must improve on is obvious: throw strikes, limit walks. His 4.76 BB/9 from 2022 simply won’t cut it, he has to hone in on his control. I apologize for this segment being very long, but I am fascinated to see how MacKenzie Gore fairs moving forward and I wish him the best.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! What players do you think will be pivotal in the NL East? What team is going to win the division? Let me know in the comments below!

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