NL West X-Factors

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The NL West has been run by the Los Angeles Dodgers with everyone else fighting for second across the last decade. Can a challenger emerge and dethrone the Dodgers? In this article, I highlighted a key player to watch on each NL West team and what I make of them moving forward. This article is more focused on singular players than full teams, but if you choose to draw conclusions from the way I formatted the order of my list from one to five, then so be it!

San Diego Padres- RHP Nick Martinez

After a stint in Japan, Nick Martinez made his return to Major League Baseball with the San Diego Padres in 2022. Martinez started the season in the rotation, but posted a mediocre 4.12 ERA and 6.57 xFIP across the first month of the season. After making ten starts, the Padres moved Martinez to a swing role out of the bullpen, which ended up being a fantastic decision. He had a 3.13 ERA and 3.55 FIP over the second half and established himself as one of San Diego’s most trusted arms. His overall statline came out to a 3.47 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 4.04 xFIP over 106.1 IP. When Nick elected to re-sign with the Padres, he did so with the expectation of rejoining the rotation. Martinez has a diverse arsenal of pitches, led by his filthy changeup and a solid curveball, but his fastball gets absolutely crushed. He doesn’t generate a ton of whiffs, which is fine since he manages contact (relatively) well, but that becomes an issue if he continues to walk batters at a 3.47 BB/9 rate. Martinez truly looked better and better as the season went on, which gives me a level of confidence that he’ll continue that trend in 2023. He likely won’t produce ace caliber numbers, but Nick Martinez should provide quality innings at the back of the Padres rotation and could become a versatile weapon in the playoffs.

Los Angeles Dodgers- UTL Miguel Vargas

Before Spring Training, I had UTL Gavin Lux penciled in as my x-factor for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Alas, he suffered a season ending injury, which puts more pressure on Miguel Vargas, one of the top prospects in the Dodgers organization. Vargas was hilariously bad in his 50 PAs in 2022 (,170/.200/.255 w/ 26 wRC+), but that sample size is tiny and virtually irrelevant. Vargas has mashed at every level of the minors; he makes his money off of hitting the ball hard, lifting the ball, and making plays with his impressive speed. He’s played more 3B and LF than 2B, but the Dodgers will likely use him at the keystone as Lux’s replacement. The Dodgers are consistently one of the most disciplined teams at the plate each year, and if Vargas continues his upward BB% trend (13.7% in AAA, 2022), he will fit right in. There will be a learning curve and he may struggle early, but by the end of the season, expect Miguel Vargas to be a solid contributor on the likely playoff-bound Los Angeles Dodgers.

Arizona Diamondbacks- C Gabriel Moreno

This offseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Toronto Blue Jays made a shocking trade that sent UTL Daulton Varsho to Toronto in exchange for C Gabriel Moreno and OF Lourdes Gurriel. Varsho was seemed to be a highly-regarded player for the Diamondbacks moving forward, but they pounced on the opportunity to acquire a solid veteran in Gurriel and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno. Moreno has technically graduated from prospect status, as he compiled 73 PAs in Toronto in 2022. The sample size is small, but Moreno looked solid with a slashline of .319/.356/.377 with a 113 wRC+. That slugging mark is a bit terrifying and he doesn’t really hit homers, but Moreno has had consistent gap power in the minor leagues that should translate as he gets more playing time in the big leagues. What’s also awesome about Moreno is his advanced ability to make contact and hit for a high average (.373 in AA 2021, .315 in AAA 2022), which is a rarity in today’s game. To round it out, Gabriel is regarded as a stout defender with impressive athleticism and a strong arm from behind the dish. There are some noticeable differences between the two, but I think Moreno is very similar to his former Blue Jays teammate Alejandro Kirk in terms of their high contact rate, limited HR power, and prowess behind the plate. I have great confidence that Gabriel Moreno will develop into one of the best two-way catchers in the sport and be a fixture in the Diamondbacks lineup for many years to come.

San Francisco Giants- OF Michael Conforto

Once upon a time, Michael Conforto was on a rise towards stardom with the New York Mets and likely a big payday. During his “walk year” in 2021, Conforto slashed .232/.344/.384 with a 106 wRC+, which is a decent statline, but with much worse power numbers than normal. Injuries led to Conforto spending the entire 2022 season as a free agent, before inking a two-year contract with the San Francisco Giants this offseason. There’s a lot to like about Conforto, I mean he has a career .842 OPS and 124 wRC+. His floor is fairly high, given he has a career walk rate of 12.1% and OBP of .356. On paper, I feel great about him returning to above-average production, but his balky shoulder scares me and it’s hard to seamlessly transition back to success after spending a year away from the game. In total, I’m cautiously optimistic that Michael Conforto will find his stroke and become a staple in the middle of the Giants lineup.

Colorado Rockies- 3B/OF Kris Bryant

After an astronomically successful run with the Chicago Cubs (oh, he was a Giant too?), Kris Bryant signed with the Colorado Rockies last offseason. His first season in the mountains was largely a disappointment, but probably not in the way you think. Bryant’s slashline was an impressive .306/.376/.475 with a 125 wRC+ in 2022. If that’s the case, why was last season considered a disappointment? Well, Bryant appeared in only 42 games. Some of the underlying numbers also raise some concern, as his hard hit percentage was by far the lowest in his career (29.6%) and he had a mediocre barrel rate of 6.7%. It would be unwise to jump to drastic conclusions with those numbers, given the small sample size and injury factor, but it’s certainly a red flag. The hitter friendly nature of Coors Field should help boost Bryant’s offensive statistics, but he shockingly has yet to hit a home run at home as a member of the Rockies. A full (and healthy) season from Kris Bryant should be a fairly productive one, but I question his ability to greatly fulfill the $26m he’ll be making annually until 2028.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! What players do you think will be pivotal in the NL West? What team is going to win the division? Let me know in the comments below!

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