Week One NFL Picks

College football? Check! NFL? On the horizon. For another year, I am back again with my weekly game picks. Will I improve this year? Time will tell!

Thursday

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) 27-23 Rams

Josh Allen and the Bills have all the ingredients to not just win this game, but to win the Super Bowl this season. With that being said, it would be a shame for the Rams to have their ring ceremony ruined. A late TD from Matt Stafford helps the Rams win their first game as defending champs.

Sunday

Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs New York Jets 28-13 Ravens

The Ravens will be without RB JK Dobbins as he works his way back from injury, but that shouldn’t change the outcome of this game. I love my Jets, but the Ravens are a damn good team and QB Lamar Jackson should have a field day.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) vs Atlanta Falcons 34-15 Saints

Things aren’t looking too great for Atlanta in 2022, while the Saints are looking to make it back to the playoffs. Saints QB Jameis Winston looked solid last year before he tore his ACL, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares in his return. I’m also excited to see New Orleans WR Michael Thomas back on the field, I think he’ll have a field day en route to a bounceback season. Saints by a lot.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs Chicago Bears 26-9 49ers

The Trey Lance era is finally here in San Francisco! Lance is incredibly talented and has all the weapons to be a superstar. On the other hand, Justin Fields is plenty talented, but doesn’t have great resources around him. I don’t think this game will be too competitive.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals 27-24 Bengals

For the first time in my life, Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the starting QB for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mitch Trubisky isn’t a sexy replacement, but I think he can quietly get the job done. Pittsburgh isn’t short on talent, but they aren’t as dynamic as Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Just about every AFC North game is intense, so I think the Steelers will cover the spread, but the Bengals will win outright.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) vs Detroit Lions 21-16 Eagles

After they snuck into the playoffs last year, the Eagles are back with new star WR AJ Brown. The play of QB Jalen Hurts and his development as a passer will define how successful or unsuccessful the Eagles will be this season. The Lions are still a work in progress, but they are physical and have enough playmakers (like RB DeAndre Swift) to stay competitive.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins (-3.5) 26-20 Dolphins

This should be a very competitive and possibly chippy game between two teams that both have playoff hopes and don’t like each other. The Miami offense should greatly enjoy the presence of WR Tyreek Hill, who is the poster child for big play threats. The Patriots tend to find ways to grind games out, but I don’t know if I like QB Mac Jones getting it done in crunch time. The Dolphins hold off the Patriots offense in the 4th quarter to seal the victory.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Washington Commanders (-2.5) 22-18 Commanders

If you’re not a fan of either of these two teams, you’ll probably be watching this game for fantasy football purposes only. The Jaguars are much improved on paper, but still have a ways to go before being taken as a legitimate threat. On the other hand, the Commanders *may* have upgraded at QB with Carson Wentz, but certainly don’t play a sexy brand of football. I could see this one going either way, but I’ll opt to take Washington.

Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers (EVEN) 28-27 Panthers

Who doesn’t love a game with an even spread? The storyline heading into this game revolves around Carolina QB Baker Mayfield facing his old team after an ugly split this offseason. Overall, the Browns are a well-built team, but the product takes a dramatic hit with Jacoby Brissett starting at QB. Baker could easily crash and burn, but I’ll take the optimistic route and say he makes a few big throws in crunch time to exact his revenge on his former employers.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans (+7) 27-21 Colts

The Colts are vastly superior to the Texans, but football is a weird game. I don’t think Indianapolis is on upset watch, but the Texans will keep up enough and cover the spread in the end. Maybe it’ll be via a garbage time TD from darling rookie RB Dameon Pierce, who knows!? Either way, it’ll be weird to see Matt Ryan donning blue and white instead of Atlanta Falcon red.

New York Giants vs Tennessee Titans (-5.5) 23-13 Titans

The Titans have had a disappointing streak with an early playoff exit and the offseason trade of WR AJ Brown, but even with all of that being said, they should handle the Giants. The Giants offense will struggle to be above anemic with Daniel Jones at the helm, so even if Titans QB Ryan Tannehill doesn’t set the world on fire, he should be the better QB in this matchup. Welcome back Derrick Henry, here’s to hoping he’s healthy and back to his king form.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) vs Minnesota Vikings 35-27 Packers

It feels like there’s always some great football being played when these rivals match up. I’m fascinated to see how the Packers offense is structured with the departure of franchise icon WR Davante Adams. They have reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers at QB, which is perfectly good enough for me. The Vikings offense is dynamic in its own right with bruiser RB Dalvin Cook and shifty WR Justin Jefferson, but I trust the Green Bay defense more than the Minnesota defense to get a big stop.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3) vs Los Angeles Chargers 30-26 Raiders

When these teams last met, they nearly tied. Instead, the Raiders won and ended the Chargers season early. Since then, the Raiders added one of the best WRs in the sport in Davante Adams, while the Chargers bolstered their defense. Chargers QB Justin Herbert is the real deal and should provide plenty of highlight reel throws. While Raiders QB Derek Carr isn’t as sexy, he also gets the job done. I’m a sucker for a good narrative and the excitement behind the return of the college duo of Carr-Adams is too fun to ignore.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) vs Arizona Cardinals 41-31 Chiefs

If you like offense, this game is for you! The Chiefs don’t have speedster Tyreek Hill anymore, but they do have the cannon arm of QB Patrick Mahomes. The addition of WR JuJu Smith-Schuster should help keep the offense dynamic. On the flip side, the Cardinals offense should look a little different too. QB Kyler Murray got his big extension, but he’ll be without WR DeAndre Hopkins due to suspension and possibly WR Rondale Moore after an injury in practice. Look for recently acquired WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to emerge as the focal point of the Arizona offense. With that being noted, I feel good about the Chiefs in this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs Dallas Cowboys 34-31 Buccaneers

These teams matched up in last year’s opener and delivered fireworks. The Buccaneers are fortunate to have Tom Brady back at QB after flirting with retirement. He’s still good in his own right, but he’s gonna need WR Chris Godwin to get healthy and help him out. In Dallas, it’s officially the CeeDee Lamb show with WR Amari Cooper now in Cleveland. Similarly to last year, I think the Cowboys will take this one down to the wire, but Tampa Bay will prevail.

Monday

Denver Broncos (-6.5) vs Seattle Seahawks 37-17 Broncos

Another QB reunion! Russell Wilson returns to his former home with his new team, the Denver Broncos. His replacement in Seattle is, uh, Geno Smith. Smith is a perfectly fine backup QB, but I’m not certain that he’s a starting-caliber signal-caller. I think Wilson and the Broncos will run roughshod over the Seahawks defense.

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