2023 NFL Mock Draft

I’ll keep the introduction short because there’s a loooooooot of writing below. I made a few trades and tried to make the swaps as clear as possible. Below all of the analysis, you can find a graphic of the whole first round.

SPECIAL SHOUTOUT TO JACKSON POWERS FOR HIS HELP WITH PLAYER ANALYSIS

1. CAR select Alabama QB Bryce Young

Alabama has produced several starting QBs in the NFL over the last several years, with Bryce Young being next up. Young, however, is better than his predecessors. As a sophomore in 2021, he threw for 4872 yards and 47 TDs en route to a Heisman Trophy and a National Championship appearance for his Alabama Crimson Tide. His 2022 campaign wasn’t as impressive in terms of statistics, but Young continued to showcase his high IQ, tenacity, escapability, and precision accuracy. He’s undersized, there’s no doubt about that, but he’s such an intelligent player with few flaws in his game that I’m not concerned about his stature. Bryce Young should be a plug-and-play guy in Frank Reich’s offense with a high floor and the ability to be productive early on.

2. HOU select Alabama EDGE Will Anderson Jr.

While Bryce Young was picking apart opposing defenses, Will Anderson was causing nightmares off of the edge for Alabama. Anderson finished 5th in the Heisman Trophy voting in 2021, but his 56 tackles, 31 tackles for loss, and 17.5 sacks suggest that he may have been the outright best player in college football. Over three seasons in Tuscaloosa, Anderson has compiled 58.5 tackles for loss and 34.5 sacks. He has eye-popping athleticism and strong burst, mixed with a high motor and unique bag of pass rushing moves. Anderson struggled with penalties in 2022 and weighed in a little lighter than some evaluators would like, but he’s a prospect worth the hype and a great fit for Houston.

3. TEN (via ARI) select Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud

The Ryan Tannehill era in Tennessee likely won’t last for much longer, so I have the Titans trading up to select Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. All Stroud did at Ohio State was dominate, tossing 85 TDs and crossing the 8,000 yard threshold as passer across his two seasons as the starter. His production speaks for itself. Efficiency is the name of his game, he’s incredibly accurate as a pocket passer. In the College Football Playoff against Georgia, Stroud dissected the vaunted Bulldogs defense with poise, moxie, and off-script plays. If there’s an area for Stroud to improve on, it would be his off-script playmaking and the use of his legs. He’s shown glimpses of being a good athlete with respectable speed, but he seldom showed it off in college. When the pocket is clean, Stroud is money, but he’s going to need to work on his play against pressure and moving outside he pocket. There’s no reason to doubt his innate ability as a passer, but CJ Stroud must boost his maneuverability in the pocket and handle pressure better in order to establish himself as a franchise cornerstone.

4. IND select Florida QB Anthony Richardson

Toolsly, but risky. That’s the consensus opinion on Florida’s Anthony Richardson. His college production is concerning, as he recorded 24 TDs to 15 INTs with a 54.7 CMP%. Based off of those statistics, you’d assume he’d be in contention for a late round selection, maybe signing as an undrafted free agent. That isn’t the case, however, as Richardson is the most gifted athlete in his draft class, a unique blend of size and speed. His arm strength is as good as anyone you’ll find in football, the kind of strength that simply cannot be done. At 6’4” 244 lbs, Richardson is a fierce runner with the strength to ram over defenders, but also the acceleration to break off huge runs. Physically, he’s the total package. That comes with a major caveat, however, as he’s discombobulated as a passer in terms of mechanics and accuracy. His tantalizing arm talent is a sight to see in a workout setting, but it loses its lust when Richardson fails to connect with his receivers, or worse, find a defender. Anthony Richardson is a developmental prospect, Indianapolis is going to have to fix essentially everything in terms of throwing technique. With that being said, Anthony Richardson reminds me of a prime Cam Newton and has the upside to be a top level QB in the NFL.

5. SEA select Georgia DT Jalen Carter

Georgia has boasted historically impressive defenses over the last few seasons with Jalen Carter being at the core of those groups. Fromer Georgia Bulldog and 2022 first round pick Jordan Davis has impressive athleticism, especially for his size, but Carter is an even better athlete. Opposing teams could try to double-team him, but he’d still find ways to free himself up with his superior athleticism and overwhelming strength. He’s a stout run defender and solid pass rusher, making him a quality player as he currently is. He can get even better as a pass rusher, though, by developing a wider array of pass rush moves to keep offensive linemen on their toes. Worth noting, Carter was cited for reckless driving and racing in a January incident that resulted in the fatal crash of a Georgia football player and assistant. His red flags off the field are notable, but as a player, Jalen Carter can be a fixture at the front of a Seahawks defense that badly needs reinforcement on their defensive line.

6. NE (via DET) select Northwestern OT/G Peter Skoronski

After the departure of former first rounder Rashawn Slater at Northwestern, Peter Skoronski slid in swimmingly at LT. Skoronski is technically sound and a fantastic blocker in the run game. A transition to the interior seems quite possible, as Skoronski has short(er) arms and his arsenal may be better suited at the guard position. Regardless of where he ends up playing on the line, Peter Skoronski should be a huge asset, thus prompting the New England Patriots to trade up and select him.

7. LV select Kentucky QB Will Levis

The Raiders added veteran QB Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, but he’s likely more of a bridge than a long-term solution. Enter Will Levis, a big-armed prospect from the Bluegrass State. Levis was inconsistent in college at Penn State and Kentucky, but is lauded as a top prospect due to his physical profile. His arm is strong, he’s a fluid athlete, and he’s tough. That’s not a bad place to start, but his accuracy leaves plenty to be desired. His ball placement is shoddy and he struggles maintaining rhythm as a passer, while also turning the ball over too often. These things must improve for Levis to be a successful NFL QB. His potential will likely skyrocket Will Levis into the top ten, but he’s super raw and presents risk. Las Vegas is a good fit for Levis in the sense that he won’t have to start immediately, but it remains to be seen if they’re the right organization to tap into his full potential.

8. ATL select Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson

Freak of nature or football player? Tyree Wilson is both. His frame is monstrous and his strength is terrifying. He’s more than just a space filler, though, as he makes plays with advanced agility and sideline to sideline coverage. He’s a jack-of-all-trades, impacting the game as a pass rusher, run stopper, and occasionally in coverage. He’s not fully developed in terms of technique and timing. Those are very fixable issues, ones worth overlooking with his freakish makeup and ability to wreak havoc on the passer.

9. CHI select Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr.

Paris Johnson Jr. is built like a prototypical franchise left tackle and often looked the part at Ohio State. His impressive athleticism brings intrigue to NFL teams, but he has major work to do as a technician and finesse blocker. Building around Justin Fields is of paramount importance for the Chicago Bears, which makes his former college teammate Johnson a stellar fit.

10. PHI select Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez

In a deep class for defensive backs, Christian Gonzalez has a great argument to be the best of them all. Gonzalez was a standout at Colorado for two seasons, then reached new heights upon transferring to Oregon. He’s the total package: lengthy, speedy, rangy. Gonzalez is capable of guarding a top wideout in man coverage, but also has the intangibles and instincts to succeed in zone. He’s an outstanding athlete, which is great in it of itself, but he becomes a near blue-chip prospect the way he combines that with his football IQ and knowledge of the position. Gonzalez doesn’t play with great strength, but that’s really the only flaw to be seen in his game. The Eagles don’t have an immediate need at corner, but he is a standout player and GM Howie Roseman doesn’t shy away from home run hitters like Christian Gonzalez.

11. ARI (via TEN) select Clemson EDGE Myles Murphy

From the moment that he stepped on campus as a true freshman, Myles Murphy was an integral piece of the Clemson defense. Murphy is listed at 6’5” and possesses the coveted size/speed combination. He uses his physicality, supplemented by good get-offs and fearless pursuit, to win matchups. All told, he profiles as a top-tier EDGE defender in the league. With that being said, despite ample experience in college, Murphy is still raw and unpolished as a pass rusher. His limited tree of pass rushing moves will likely hinder his immediate success, as he badly needs to diversify his methods of getting to the QB. It would be naive to think that he can bolster his arsenal over night, but his mix of size, athleticism, and energy will get Myles Murphy drafted very high. The Arizona Cardinals are trending towards a huge rebuild, which means they are happy to trade down from pick three to accrue more assets and can withstand the possible growing pains with Murphy.

12. HOU select Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

The past several WR draft classes have been fairly star-studded, and while that may not be the case on the outset of the 2023 NFL Draft, Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be highly sought after. Smith-Njigba was limited by injuries in 2022, but he performed on the same level as now-NFL standouts Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in 2021. He’s not a sexy deep threat, but he picks apart defenses over the middle of the field with strong body control and plus ball skills. He’s not a huge guy, but he has the ability to evade and break tackles, making him a viable RAC threat. His upside appears to be slightly limited by his lack of production and refinement outside, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a super safe pick and should be a dependable target for whomever is playing QB for the Texans.

13. GB select Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer

Aaron Rodgers is gone, so it would be hilariously fitting if Green Bay went after an offensive weapon in the first round. Don’t let the irony fool you, though, as Michael Mayer is a fantastic prospect. Even with instability at QB at Notre Dame, Mayer went over 800 yards receiving the last two years, respectively. Mayer is a big body with notable strength, but he’s also versatile in the way he can impact the game. He has the ball skills and physicality to make contested catches downfield, but he also can break tackles and gain yards after the catch. To me, Michael Mayer is a new-age Jason Witten whose game should translate well to the NFL.

14. DET (via NE) select Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon

Devon Witherspoon wasn’t necessarily a name that was discussed a ton during the college football season, but he’s emerged as a legit prospect. It’s not hard to see why, given that Witherspoon is one of the best pure athletes in this draft class. He specializes more in man coverage than zone, but his positive ball skills set him up to make plays in any situation. He’s pretty slim, which may limit his ceiling, but shouldn’t stop him from being a quality NFL player. The Lions need a CB badly and Devon Witherspoon is a perfect fit for the tenacious and physical Dan Campbell (defense).

15. PIT (via NYJ) select Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.

The Steelers could stand pat at pick 17 and get a quality player, but with a player like Joey Porter Jr. on the board, a player with immense talent at a position of need, Pittsburgh should jump at the opportunity to secure his services. He’s like a discount Sauce Gardner, a little bit shorter and skinnier than the Jets superstar, but strong in press man coverage with great length and a knack for breaking passes up. He’s a fluid and technically sound mover, which pairs well with his good, but not elite speed. Not to be overlooked, Porter can step up and use his physicality to make tackles near the line of scrimmage. His repetitions in zone coverage are limited and he has a bad tendency to get handsy while guarding receivers, but his strengths significantly outweigh his areas for improvement. I love Joey Porter Jr. and think he can be a perennial pro-bowler and shut down corner.

16. WAS select Florida G O’Cyrus Torrence

O’Cyrus Torrence began his career at Louisiana-Lafayette before following coach Billy Napier to Florida for his final season. He’s an immovable object in the run game, controlling the lineman he’s engaged with while maintaining the ability to maneuver laterally. Power pass rush moves simply don’t work against Torrence, he’s a wall of steel. He has struggled getting downfield and laying blocks, but that shouldn’t stop Washington from taking him to be part of their offensive line for the foreseeable future.

17. NYJ (via PIT) select Georgia OT Broderick Jones

Broderick Jones has a very steady resume coming out of Georgia. He allowed no sacks this past season, using his blend of size, length, and relative athleticism to make him a stalwart in the SEC. Jones only made 19 starts as a Bulldog shoes experience isn’t large, but that also indicates his upside and room for growth. The Jets have a few viable options at LT and RT, but health isn’t a guarantee and Broderick Jones would add a talented player into the mix.

18. DET select Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey

Calijah Kancey is an undersized DT from Pittsburgh. Heard that one before? He isn’t Aaron Donald, but Kancey is a unique prospect with the tools to make a big impact. He offsets his lack of tradition size with explosiveness and athleticism on the interior. Many DT prospects specialize in either run stopping OR rushing the passer, but that isn’t the case for Kancey, as he’s a game wrecker on running AND passing plays. As a prospect, Kancey has few flaws, certainly none glaring in terms of his play itself. The questions surrounding Kancey are almost entirely based on his size and the concerns about how it’ll affect him against more powerful linemen. With strong outside rushers, Calijah Kancey could top off a ferocious defensive line.

19. TB select Iowa EDGE Lukas Van Ness

Previous production is a factor in how NFL teams draft, but upside and projection reign supreme. Enter Lukas Van Ness, a player with limited experience at Iowa, but has NFL executives mesmerized. He profiles as a total game changer, holding the desirable traits of strength, length, flexibility, and immense energy. The Hawkeyes have been among the best defensive units in college football over the past several years, and although his sample size was smaller, Van Ness played a role in their success. The knocks on Van Ness stem from inexperience, as he didn’t have a huge role throughout his career at Iowa and has yet to develop expanded pass rush moves. Heading into a new chapter, the Buccaneers could really use a shot of energy and potential on their defense: Lukas Van Ness.

20. SEA select Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith

He may be small, but the guy can sure play. Nolan Smith, despite weighing in at 238 lbs at the combine, is a top prospect in this years class because of his ability to punch above his weight. What Smith lacks in size, he makes up for with elite speed, bend, leverage and hand placement. Smith is also a very clear leader that any GM would kill to have in their locker room. Smith would likely only play base downs in his rookie year, but he could have the potential to see that role expanded in the future.

21. LAC select Boston College WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers to the Chargers is a match made in heaven. Flowers is a 5’10” ball of muscle that adds incredible YAC ability, but also remains a real threat downfield. Looking at last year’s Chargers team, the passing attack was really lacking due to the weakness of targets on this team. Keenan Allen was barely healthy and even when he was he looked his age. Mike Williams remains a one trick pony and doesn’t offer more than a spectacular catch deep ball receiver. Until this team has the ability to work in the short and separate against man, this offense might look semi-stagnant. Flowers brings the diversity that the Chargers need to this receiving core. His upside may be capped because of his small stature and average hands, but Say Flowers would fit in and flourish as a Charger.

22. BAL select Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison

Anton Harrison is built for the role of franchise LT, but he’s a bit of a project. He flashes greatness as a pass protector and moves well, a great starting point. When he’s in a rhythm and meticulous in his blocking fundamentals, he’s fantastic. The issue is that Harrison is inconsistent in his craft and has strides to make as a technician. Anton Harrison is a bit rough around the edges, but is projectable and a team like Baltimore will swoop in and patiently develop him.

23. CIN (via MIN) select Texas RB Bijan Robinson

Simply put, Bijan Robinson has all the makings of being the next star RB in the NFL. He’s athletic, he’s speedy, he’s elusive, but his game expands much deeper. He has ample experience as a pass catcher from his time at Texas, recording 60 catches for 805 yards and 8 TDs. He’s not only a dynamic playmaker, but also a willing and capable blocker in certain situations. Robinson relies on his athleticism and lateral acceleration to succeed as a runner, not so much on power rushing up the middle. Joe Mixon has been a good player for Cincinnati, but his future with the team is up in the air, thus making Bijan Robinson a perfect player to trade up for and plug in the Bengals offense, which is already lethal.

24. JAX select Iowa LB Jack Campbell

During his time at Iowa, Jack Campbell was the bona-fide heart and soul of the Hawkeye defense. He fills out well and combines his size and ability to diagnose plays to rack up tackles. He’s not just a tackle machine in the box, rather he has the pursuit prowess to go sideline to sideline to make plays. He’s not lauded for his coverage ability, but he’s a smart and instinctive player that isn’t a pure liability when he drops back. Jack Campbell isn’t exactly fast, but he closes out plays quickly enough. He’d be a huge asset in the middle of the Jacksonville Jaguars defense with his surefire tackling ability.

25. NYG select USC WR Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison won the Biletnikoff Award, awarded to the nation’s best receiver, as a Pitt Panther in 2021. Upon transferring to USC, Addison continued to showcase what makes him special. He’s an advanced route runner with quality awareness, which leads him to create separation better than just about anyone else in this draft class. He’s undersized, which isn’t a death sentence, but he also isn’t a burner, meaning that he’ll likely be confined to the slot. Maybe he isn’t a WR1, but Addison can be a great compliment to a well-structured offense. The Giants have a strange WR room and a newly extended QB in Daniel Jones, so I’d expect New York to invest in some weapons.

26. DAL select Utah TE Dalton Kincaid

Once upon a time, Dalton Kincaid was new to the sport of football and latched on at the small University of San Diego. Now, Kincaid is leaving Utah as one of their most decorated pass catchers and is on the verge of being selected on day one of the NFL Draft. Kincaid has proficient ball skills and comes down with almost every ball thrown at him. He’s also more athletic than your average TE and was asked to do many different things in college, virtually all of which he thrived at. The drawback of Kincaid is he has a smaller build, which could lead to him struggling in power battles against professional defenders. He doesn’t lack effort, but he also isn’t polished as a blocker. Cowboys QB Day Prescott seemingly enjoys to get his TEs involved, but Jerry Jones and co. said farewell to Dalton Schultz this offseason. Take out one Dalton, replace him with another Dalton, and Kincaid should do wonders for Dallas.

27. PHI (via BUF) select Alabama S Brian Branch

I love everything about Brian Branch. Without considering positional value, Branch is a top ten player in this class. He improved each year at Alabama and has developed into a Swiss army knife in the secondary. He can hold his own playing as a slot CB, he can ballhawk at deep safety, but Branch is particularly special when he’s playing closer to the line of scrimmage. He is able to quickly break down plays and generate tackles for loss against the run, but also competently defend passes in zone. He has strides to make in man coverage, so hopefully whoever takes Branch recognizes that he’s best suited in zone. He didn’t test well at the combine, but he plays with enough intensity and motor that speed doesn’t appear to be an issue when you watch him play. The Eagles are pretty well filled out on the defensive end, and picked CB Christian Gonzalez earlier but Branch’s versatility makes him very appealing. The value is too good to pass up, I think moving up a couple of spots would be feasible and wise for Philadelphia in order to get Brian Branch.

28. MIN (via CIN) select TCU WR Quentin Johnston

Many people contributed to TCU’s ascension in 2021, but WR Quentin Johnston was one of the primary catalysts. Johnson is a power/speed guy, capable of making physical catches downfield, but also can turn on the jets to get himself open. He’s crafty after the catch, capable of making big plays from short passes. Johnston has his flaws, however, as he has a tendency to struggle against the press and records too many concentration drops. Some note that Johnston was listed at 6’4” by TCU, but his measuring at 6’3” at the NFL Combine lowers his stock. It’s a change worth noting, but it doesn’t greatly affect my opinion on him as a player. The floor may be low due to several shortcomings, but the ceiling is high for Quentin Johnston with his physical gifts. Johnston would be an interesting fit for the Vikings, as the departure of Adam Thielen leaves their WR depth bare behind Justin Jefferson.

29. NO select Clemson DL Bryan Bresee

Bryan Bresee, along with Myles Murphy, continues Clemson’s unstoppable factory of defensive linemen. Bresee is a force in the run game, using his physical skills and quickness to snuff out plays up the middle. He plays with a special kind of conviction, closing plays out with speed and making his presence felt across the board. Based on just his athletic profile, Bresee is an interesting player. Bresee’s shortcomings come by way of his limited production rushing the passer and the lingering injuries he dealt with in college. Bryan Bresee isn’t a finished product and may never be one of the premiere DTs in the NFL, but he plays with the kind of passion that any team would love to have. New Orleans has plenty of holes to fill, so they could go a number of different ways.

30. BUF (via PHI) select Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes

Emmanuel Forbes only played three years in Starkville, but his presence was felt across the country and into college football history. Forbes recorded 14 INTs and 6 TDs, not too shabby. His ball skills, as backed up by the statistics, are off the charts. That is largely because he plays fast and makes plays off of instinct. The downside to some of those instinct plays, however, is that Forbes is susceptible to giving up big plays when he overcommits. He’s also quite small, weighing in at under 170 lbs. He needs some molding in terms of discipline and aggressiveness, but Emmanuel Forbes is a playmaker that can make noise in the Buffalo secondary.

31. KC select LSU EDGE BJ Ojulari

BJ Ojulari stands out on film with his explosive takeoff and his natural rush ability off of the edge. He is technically sound and has a slew of different way he can beat offensive linemen. Watching him at LSU, he showed strong development after each year he spent in Baton Rouge. Ojulari doesn’t possess the size and strength of a classic EDGE, which may knock him down on draft boards. BJ Ojulari’s athleticism will thrust him into first round consideration, though it’ll be up to the Chiefs (or the organization that drafts him) to shape him up and put him in situations to be successful.