2024 College Football Playoff Preview
- Jeremy
- Dec 20, 2024
- 15 min read
For the first time in college football history, the sport will decide its national champion via a 12-team playoff. The first round will consist of games taking place on the campus of the higher seeds, before merging into traditional New Year’s Six bowl games for the subsequent rounds. In this article, I took a crack at making my picks for each game of the College Football Playoff and crowned a champion.
Round One
Line: Notre Dame -7, O/U 52.5
Location: Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, IN)
Date: December 20th at 5:00 PM PST
Score Prediction: 23-20 Indiana
To start off the inaugural expanded playoff, we have an in-state matchup of two very different programs. Meeting for the first time since 1991, Notre Dame is one of the sport’s most famous programs and was ranked in the top ten preseason poll with expectations to make it here, while Indiana is the losingest program in college football history and was picked to finish at the bottom of the Big Ten. Outside of a stunning upset at the hands of Northern Illinois in early September, Notre Dame has been dominant all season. Duke transfer QB Riley Leonard is one of the best dual-threat players in the sport, throwing for 16 touchdowns and running for 14 more. RB Jeremiyah Love has had a breakout sophomore campaign, rushing for 949 yards and 15 TDs. The defense is led by S Xavier Watts, who has recorded 5 interceptions this season and is now a two-time All American. On the flip side, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti can attribute his team’s turnaround largely to the play of Ohio transfer QB Kurtis Rourke. In his sixth year of college, Rourke has thrown for 2827 yards and 27 TDs to only 4 INTs with a staggering 70.4 completion percentage. Next to Rourke is the one-two punch of RBs Justice Ellison (811 yards and 10 TDs) and Ty Son Lawton (634 yards and 12 TDs). The Hoosiers defense is solid at all three levels, led by All-American DL Mikail Kamara (10 sacks) and first team All-Big Ten honorees LB Aiden Fisher (108 tackles) and CB D’Angelo Ponds (9 pass deflections), all of whom followed coach Cignetti from James Madison. Notre Dame is a touchdown favorite, which makes sense given that the game is in South Bend and the Fighting Irish have the edge in talent. With that being said, I like Indiana to pull off the upset. Skeptics will say that Indiana hasn’t beaten anyone good, but I’d counter by saying they’ve looked dominant in almost every game they’ve played (sans Ohio State) and that Notre Dame’s schedule hasn’t been particularly rigorous up to this point. I think this game will be a hard-nosed battle with neither defense giving much up. In the end, my gut says Indiana gets some key stops down the stretch and seals the upset victory with a D’Angelo Ponds interception.
Line: Penn State -8.5, O/U 54.5
Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)
Date: December 21st at 9:00 AM PST
Score Prediction: 34-24 Penn State
This matchup features two squads that fell short in their conference championship matchups, but still found their way to the playoff. There was little doubt that Penn State would remain in the field, as they were ranked third going into championship week and their only losses came at the hands of Ohio State and Oregon, both of whom qualified for the playoff. On the flip side, SMU had to sweat out their playoff berth after losing to Clemson, narrowly getting the final at-large spot over Alabama. Penn State QB Drew Allar (2894 passing yards, 69.1 CMP%, 21 TDs) has been steadily improving, but it’s the fearsome duo of RBs Nicholas Singleton (838 yards and 7 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (822 yards and 6 TDs) that drive the offense. Lest I forget TE Tyler Warren, who hauled in 88 catches for 1062 yards and 6 TDs en route to receiving the Mackey Award and finishing seventh in the Heisman Trophy race. Penn State’s best overall player resides on defense, that being EDGE Abdul Carter, a consensus All-American and future NFL first-round pick with 20 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. SMU’s signal-caller is QB Kevin Jennings, who has been incredible since taking over for Preston Stone. As the starter, Jennings has thrown for over 3000 yards and 22 TDs, while also adding 379 yards and 6 TDs on the ground. The cog for the Mustangs offense is Miami transfer RB Brashard Smith, who has amassed 1270 rushing yards and 18 total TDs on the season. Smith will be getting the ball early and often in this matchup, no doubt about it. LB Kobe Wilson is the heart and soul on defense in Dallas, as the fifth-year player has racked up 110 total tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 INTs. I think SMU is plenty deserving of making it to the playoff, but I don’t see them making much of a run. Penn State’s struggles against highly-ranked teams under James Franklin have been well-documented, but the Nittany Lions are simply better, deeper, and more well-rounded than their Mustang counterparts. This game should be competitive for the majority of regulation, but I think Singleton and Allen will wear down the SMU defense and help Penn State pull away in the second half.
Line: Texas -12, O/U 51.5
Location: DKR Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, TX)
Date: December 21st at 1:00 PM PST
Score Prediction: 21-20 Texas
If you’re a fan of the color orange, then this game is for you! On one hand, Texas was a shoe-in for the playoff regardless of the result of their SEC Championship Game matchup, which they ultimately lost. On the other hand, Clemson needed to beat SMU in the ACC Championship Game in order to qualify for the automatic bid and make the top 12. In their first season as members of the SEC, Texas has been wildly successful, only faltering to Georgia (twice…). The Arch Manning discourse has been loud all season, but Quinn Ewers is still the guy at QB for the Longhorns. Despite battling through some injuries and inconsistencies, Ewers has still managed to throw for 2665 yards and 25 TDs to 9 INTs. Texas spreads the ball out to a slew of playmakers, with RBs Tre Wisner (863 yards and 3 TDs) and Jaydon Blue (564 yards and 6 TDs) leading the way on the ground and WR Matthew Golden (738 yards and 8 TDs) and TE Gunnar Helm (611 yards and 5 TDs) catching passes. On defense, Texas is incredibly deep and talented. LB Anthony Hill Jr. (90 tackles, 16 TFLs, 7.5 sacks) is a menace, while CB Jahdae Barron (9 PDs and 5 INTs) is an All-American. They’ll have a tough test facing Clemson QB Cade Klubnik, who has finally tapped into his star potential, throwing for 3303 yards and 33 TDs, while running for 458 yards and 7 TDs. RB Phil Mafah has run for over 1100 yards and 8 TDs for the Tigers, leading the way for an efficient rushing attack. Like Klubnik, WR Antonio Williams broke out in 2024, catching 71 passes for 838 yards and 10 TDs. The 2024 Clemson defense pales in comparison to some of the team’s vaunted units in the late 2010s, but remains physical with All-American LB Barrett Carter (76 tackles, 11 TFLs, 7 PDs, 3.5 sacks) in the middle. Texas is, deservedly, a heavy favorite in this matchup, but I wouldn’t be too quick to write off Clemson. Yes, Texas moved to the impressive SEC, but the truth is that their schedule was generally pretty friendly. More specifically, Texas hasn’t played a QB as good as Cade Klubnik and I feel that’s being overlooked. I truly believe Klubnik and co. can give Texas a solid run for their money down to the wire, however I trust the Texas defense over the Clemson defense in crunch time. In a nail-biter, Texas survives.
Line: Ohio State -7.5, O/U 45.5
Location: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)
Date: December 21st at 5:00 PM PST
Score Prediction: 19-13 Ohio State
The last game of round one should be a doozy, featuring two rabid fan bases desperate for a win. Ohio State came into this season with lofty expectations, but ultimately missed the Big Ten Championship Game after a disastrous loss to Michigan. Meanwhile, Tennessee has had stretches of dominance, but had its conference title hopes dashed by a midseason loss to a mediocre Arkansas team. The man at the helm for Ohio State is QB Will Howard, who has thrown for 2860 yards and 27 TDs and 8 INTs with a 72.3 CMP% after transferring in from Kansas State. The numbers aren’t as gaudy as some may have expected, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a better running duo than RBs Quinshon Judkins (805 yards and 8 TDs) and TreVeyon Henderson (751 yards and 6 TDs). The crown jewel of the Buckeyes offense is freshman WR Jeremiah Smith, who leads the team with 934 receiving yards and 10 TDs. The defense in Columbus is loaded, starting up front with former blue-chip DEs J.T. Tuimoloau (12 TFLs and 6 sacks) and Jack Sawyer (5 TFLs and 4.5 sacks). On the back end, Alabama transfer S Caleb Downs has been as good as advertised, picking up All-American honors. After being touted as the future savior of Tennessee football and patiently waiting his turn, Nico Iamaleava has settled in as QB1 in Knoxville. Iamaleava has been good, but unspectacular, throwing for 2512 yards and 19 TDs to 5 INTs, while struggling in some of Tennessee’s bigger matchups. Conversely, RB Dylan Sampson has been a model of consistency, rushing for 1485 yards and 22 TDs and being recognized as the SEC Offensive Player of the Year. Sampson is an absolute superstar that will be a challenge for the Buckeyes to keep in check. Tennessee has gritted out victories all season with its stout defense, headlined by EDGE James Pearce Jr., who regularly faces double-teams, yet still managed to record 11 TFLs and 7.5 sacks in the regular season. Tennessee has a wealth of talented DBs, but look at CB Jermod McCoy (9 PDs and 4 INTs) to step up and take on the challenge of Jeremiah Smith. Not for lack of talent on offense, points are likely to come at a premium with these two stacked defenses on the field. Will Howard has taken his fair share of criticism, but when push comes to shove, I trust him to orchestrate his offense more efficiently in key situations than his counterpart in Nico Iamaleava. I like Ohio State to pull out a rugged win by less than a touchdown.
Quarterfinals
*All lines are projected from FanDuel via On3
Projected Line: Penn State -11.5, O/U 54.5
Location: Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
Date: December 31st at 4:30 PM PST
Score Prediction: 28-17 Penn State
Moving on to the quarterfinals, Penn State’s victory over SMU lands them in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State. The Broncos lone loss this season was in September against #1 Oregon, narrowly decided by a walk-off field goal. Since then, Boise State has run roughshod on the Mountain West, winning 11 straight games and earning a bye in the College Football Playoff. The undisputed leader at Boise and arguable face of college football is RB Ashton Jeanty, who received the Maxwell Award and finished second for the Heisman Trophy after totaling 2497 rushing yards and 29 TDs. His season has been nothing short of historic and it’ll be a blast to see him compete against an elite defense. Jeanty is incredible, but QB Maddux Madsen has quietly also had a great season, throwing for 2714 yards and 22 TDs to only 3 INTs. The Broncos defense doesn’t have much in terms of name recognition, but DEs Jayden Virgin (16 TFLs and 10 sacks) and Ahmed Hassanein (13 TFLs and 8.5 sacks) are All-Mountain West First Team honorees. Boise State has had an incredible season, but they’ll have their work cut out against a power team like Penn State. It’s one thing for Boise State to be able to run through an eight-man box from a Mountain West team, but it’s another when you’re facing a Penn State defense that has tons of future NFL players. On the flip side, I’m fairly concerned about Boise State’s ability to contain Penn State’s rushing attack between Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. For Boise State to pull this one out, they’ll need to force QB Drew Allar to turn it over multiple times on top of maintaining an efficient rushing attack. I don’t want to disrespect the greatness of Ashton Jeanty or diminish the season that Boise State has had, but I really like Penn State to control this one.
Projected Line: Texas -13.5, O/U 51.5
Location: Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
Date: January 1st at 10:00 AM PST
Score Prediction: 27-24 Texas
Texas being here is no surprise, but Arizona State? The team picked to finish last in the Big 12? The Sun Devils have shocked the world as second-year coach Kenny Dillingham has seemingly worked miracles to get his team to win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff. One of the most important changes for Arizona State from 2023 to 2024 comes under center, with Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt taking over at QB. The redshirt freshman has been awesome, throwing for 2663 yards and 24 TDs to 5 INTs, while also running for 383 yards and 5 TDs. The Sun Devils are 11-1 with Leavitt starting, losing against Cincinnati when Leavitt was injured. Next to Leavitt in the backfield is RB Cam Skattebo, one of the most exciting and beloved players in the sport. A first-team All-American, Skattebo has bruised and battered his way to 1568 yards and 19 TDs on the ground, as well as 37 catches for 506 yards and 3 TDs as a receiver. With leading WR Jordyn Tyson (75 catches for 1101 yards and 10 TDs) likely out for the remainder of the season with a collarbone injury, Skattebo’s importance in the offense has only grown. The rag-tag Sun Devils defense isn’t star-studded with eye-popping stats, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a more versatile trio of DBs than Myles Rowser (93 tackles, 5 PDs, 4 TFLs), Xavion Alford (82 tackles, 4 PDs, 2 INTs), and Shamari Simmons (70 tackles, 7 TFLs, 3 PDs, 1 INT). Texas is projected to be about a two touchdown favorite in this matchup, but that’s been the norm for Arizona State, who has played with an underdog mentality all season long. If Arizona State had a healthy Jordyn Tyson, I’d pull the trigger all the way on this upset. However, Tyson won’t be out there and this is the best team Arizona State will have faced all season. The talent edge is just a little too much for me to ignore and down the Longhorns. On the back of some big plays at WR, whether it be Matthew Golden or Isaiah Bond (health permitting), Texas survives and advances to the semifinals.
Projected Line: Oregon -1.5, O/U 53.5
Location: Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)
Date: January 1st at 2:00 PM PST
Score Prediction: 30-28 Oregon
When the College Football Playoff bracket was released, one of the first things that many fans noticed was the simple path for an Oregon-Ohio State rematch. When these teams matched up in October, Oregon eked out a 32-31 win. That game was in Eugene, while the (hypothetical) rematch will take place in Pasadena at the world famous Rose Bowl. QB Dillon Gabriel, a transfer from Oklahoma, has fit in nicely with the Ducks, leading the Big Ten with 3558 passing yards, 28 TDs, and a 73.2 CMP%. Gabriel, who finished third in voting for the Heisman Trophy, is a fantastic player in his own right, but certainly benefited from playing next to standout RB Jordan James. James has been a workhorse for Oregon, carrying the ball 226 times for 1253 yards and 15 TDs. Oregon’s talented WR corps is led by Tez Johnson (866 yards and 10 TDs) and Evan Stewart (613 yards and 5 TDs). The defense is nasty, starting up front with DEs Matayo Uiagalelei (13 TFLs and 10.5 sacks) and Jordan Burch (11 TFLs and 8.5 sacks), as well as DT Derrick Harmon (9 TFLs and 5 sacks). With a strong backend to add, it’s not hard to see how Oregon is undefeated and ranked as the top team in the country. With that being said, it’s hard to beat a team twice, let alone a team as loaded as Ohio State. The difference in their first meeting was turnovers, as Ohio State fumbled, while Oregon didn’t. With Oregon’s great ability to take care of the ball, I’ll err on the side of history repeating itself and pick the Ducks to edge out the Buckeyes.
Projected Line: Georgia -6.5, O/U 52.5
Location: Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
Date: January 1st at 5:45 PM PST
Score Prediction: 28-13 Georgia
Just like in the Peach Bowl, we have a team who everyone expected to be here (Georgia) and an ultimate underdog (Indiana). One of the biggest wrinkles here is the injury to Georgia QB Carson Beck, who is expected to miss this quarterfinal matchup. That would enter in backup QB Gunner Stockton, who is 25 for 32 for 206 yards and an INT on the season. Stockton is a former highly-regarded recruit, but he’s played so sparingly, especially against high-level opponents. Expect the Bulldogs to pound the rock with RBs Nate Frazier (634 yards and 8 TDs) and Trevor Etienne (571 yards and 9 TDs), the latter of whom has dealt with injuries throughout the season but was a big transfer addition from Florida. The defense has had its ups and downs, but is overall ferocious at each level. The line is anchored by DL Mykel Williams (9 TFLs and 5 sacks), second level by LB Jalon Walker (57 tackles, 11 TFLs, 6.5 sacks), and secondary by S Malaki Starks (73 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 PDs, 1 INT). My inclination is to say that Georgia’s deep defense suffocates the Hoosiers offense. Getting by Notre Dame will take just about everything Indiana has to offer and it feels like a huge ask for them to follow up and do the same against an even more talented Georgia team. Another win for Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers would be incredible, but I think Indiana runs out of steam when they run into Kirby Smart and Georgia, even without Carson Beck.
Semifinals
Location: Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
Date: January 9th at 4:30 PM PST
Score Prediction: 28-27 Georgia
Into the semifinals, a Georgia-Penn State clash would be incredibly fun and very hard to pick. If you take away the names and history and just look at the rosters, I like Penn State. Even as a decent skeptic of QB Drew Allar, it’s easier to have confidence in him than whoever is playing QB for Georgia, whether that be an inexperienced Gunner Stockton or a banged up Carson Beck. I like Penn State’s weapons more too. I am partial to the RB duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen over Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier, although the margin isn’t huge. With a defense that also ranks higher than Georgia in a lot of categories through regular season play, there really is a lot to like with Penn State in this matchup. With that being said, Penn State, under James Franklin, has been abysmal in big games (3-17 vs top ten opponents) and simply does not deserve the benefit of the doubt. Conversely, Georgia under Kirby Smart has been battle-tested over and over again and demonstrated the ability to win tough games despite challenging circumstances. My prediction is that Penn State looks better, or at least more consistent, on offense, but Georgia wins in the margins and pulls out a win thanks to a huge punt return from WR Anthony Evans III and a clutch pick six from playmaking DB Dan Jackson. This Bulldogs team is flawed, but here they find a way to win and move on to the National Championship.
Location: Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
Date: January 10th at 4:30 PM PST
Score Prediction: 34-26 Oregon
In contrast to the previous game, I did not struggle to pick a winner for this semifinal matchup. Oregon vs Texas would feature two megabrands oozing with talent, but the better team is clear and that is Oregon. Dillon Gabriel is a better QB than Quinn Ewers, Jordan James is a better RB than Tre Wisner or Jaydon Blue, and the duo of WRs Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart is better than TE Gunnar Helm and WR Matthew Golden. Texas probably has a slight edge on defense as a whole unit, but I don’t think it’s by a huge margin. The Longhorn DBs, led by CB Jahdae Barron and S Andrew Mukuba, are elite, but so is the Oregon DL, led by DEs Matayo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch. I wanted to pull the trigger on Texas getting upset in the last two rounds against Clemson and Arizona State, so it really isn’t hard for me to pick Oregon, the only undefeated team and presumed favorite, to win this football game.
National Championship
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
Date: January 20th at 4:30 PM PST
Score Prediction: 31-20 Oregon
For all the marbles, we have an exact rematch of the 2022 season opener and Dan Lanning’s head coaching debut, as the Oregon Ducks travel to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Georgia Bulldogs. That game was a rout, ending 49-3 in favor of Georgia, but I don’t think that will be the case this time. In this installment, number one Oregon will be the favorite with their high-powered offense and gifted defense. Georgia certainly doesn’t lack title pedigree, but they’ll need some big performances to hoist another trophy. The obvious spot to look at is under center, which could be manned by either QB Gunner Stockton or Carson Beck. Georgia certainly hopes that Beck, their unquestioned starter when healthy, is able to recover in time for this matchup, but I pose this question: what version of Carson Beck will we get? Will we get the version of Beck that threw several picks and looked unplayable in the first half against Alabama? Or will we get a version of Beck playing more in his 2023 form with precision accuracy? If it happens to be the latter, then Georgia may be in business. With so much in the air at QB for the Bulldogs however, the safe and savvy choice is Oregon. Oregon has been incredibly consistent all season long, is filled with talented veteran players, and can pull out wins in different ways against stiff competition. This is finally the year for Oregon, the Ducks will emerge victorious in the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff. WR Evan Stewart, the former five star phenom and Texas A&M transfer, will reel in two TDs and help ascend his team to the top of the college football world. Sco Ducks!
If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you think will win the College Football Playoff? Will it be a favorite like Oregon or Georgia? Or maybe an underdog like Indiana or Arizona State? Let me know in the comments down below!
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