April Observations in the American League

It is way too early to draw conclusions as to how the 2022 MLB will unfold. However, that doesn't mean I can't OBSERVE what has transpired so far this baseball season. So that's exactly what I did right here!

*stats as of April 20th

** important developments since each section being written are noted

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are not, nor will they be, a good baseball team. However, they’ve been in several competitive games thus far, largely due to competent pitching. Many fans know LHP John Means, who started the season well before suffering an elbow injury. This is a devastating blow long term, but the Orioles have gotten strong performances from Bruce Zimmermann (9 IP, 0 ER), Spenser Watkins (8 IP, 2 ER), and Keegan Akin (7.2 IP, 0 ER). The track records of these three pitchers likely indicate tons of regression, but if they can be semi-competent, the Orioles will be able to stay close in more games. Promising RHP Tyler Wells has been unimpressive through two starts, but he’ll hopefully blossom into a solid arm in the rotation.

NOTE: Zimmerman and Watkins put forth two solid starts, combining for 4 ER in 11 IP. Akin finally surrendered a run, but still has an ERA hovering around 1.50.

Boston Red Sox

One could point out the incredible start for OF Alex Verdugo, who may finally be taking the next jump in terms of power, however I am going to focus on the starting rotation. In their first couple of starts Nathan Eovaldi has been fine, while Tanner Houck and Michael Wacha have looked incredibly sharp. On the contrary, veteran LHP Rich Hill has surrendered seven runs over nine innings pitched and RHP Nick Pivetta has a 10.03 ERA over his first three starts. With Chris Sale’s health uncertain, as well as Tanner Houck’s vaccination status (you must be vaccinated to play in Toronto), the Red Sox have a dilemma in the rotation. They could promote their top pitching prospect, RHP Brayan Bello, to the bigs, although he may not be an immediate fix. Maybe they’ll recall RHP Connor Seabold from the WooSox, but their best course of action may be inquiring with the A’s regarding RHP Frankie Montas. Boston’s lineup is too potent to be dragged down by subpar pitching, Chaim Bloom needs to bolster the rotation.

NOTE: Hill threw four shutout innings in his last start, but that doesn’t quite move the needle for me.

New York Yankees

RHP Gerrit Cole’s disastrous start is worth noting, but I find DJ LeMahieu’s hot start fascinating. LeMahieu was fantastic in 2019 and 2020 for the Yankees before returning to an average hitter in 2021. So far in 2022, DJ is slashing .306/.405/.444 with a 161 wRC+. What I find to be the most encouraging for LeMahieu is his ground ball and flyball rates so far, which sit at 50.0 GB% (career low) and 32.1 FB% (career high). Should DJ LeMahieu be able to continue to cut down his ground ball rate and increase his flyball rate, he could find himself returning to 2021 form or better.

NOTE: LeMahieu is on an eleven-game hitting streak!

Tampa Bay Rays

As always, the Rays are a fascinating team. One intriguing part of this ballclub is the options in the outfield. The options feel limitless, from Randy Arozarena to Manuel Margot to Josh Lowe to Kevin Kiermaier to Brett Phillips to sometimes even Harold Ramirez. Tampa Bay is the poster child franchise of using platoons to the extreme, which means the alignment will vary based on what pitcher they are facing on a given day. Both as left handed hitters, Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips have similar profiles: great defense, medicore bat. Kiermaier has a much nicer payday than Phillips, but based off of his atrocious start at the plate, mixed with a whopping 5 DRS from Phillips already in 2022, as well as vastly better plate discipline, Phillips appears deserving of more playing time.

NOTE: Congrats to Kiermaier on his walk off homerun against the Red Sox, but my stance remains unchanged.

Toronto Blue Jays

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that almost everyone expected the Blue Jays to have a great offense in 2022. However, I don’t think many folks expected the Blue Jays to have such great offensive output from the catcher position. Danny Jansen flashed some power in 2021, but hasn’t profiled as a great offensive player. Jansen hit two HRs in his first three games before getting injured, which has given Zack Collins more consistent playing time. Recently traded from the southside of Chicago, Collins has ripped the cover off of the baseball, slashing .400/.429/.800 with a 264 wRC+ in 21 PAs. Third catcher Alejandro Kirk hasn’t clicked yet this year, but has a solid track record at the plate.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been plagued with injuries to begin the year, but they’ve still had success. Eloy Jimenez and Yasmani Grandal have started off slow, but the development of Andrew Vaughn is huge for the future of Chicago. The former #3 overall selection in the draft, Vaughn had moments of success in 2021, but was below average overall. Through a little over 30 PAs, Vaughn is slashing .310/.375/.552 with a 179 wRC+. Vaughn struggled in the power department as a rookie, and although he doesn’t necessarily profile as a big power hitter, it is encouraging to see the youngster improve his slugging.

Cleveland Guardians

Going into the season, Cleveland expected their pitching staff to carry them to victories. That may be true as the season goes on, but the offense has been spectacular so far. Jose Ramirez continues to play like one of the best talents in the sport, which is unsurprising, but the outfield play for the Guardians has been stellar. Myles Straw, recently inked to an extension, has shown his value early with a 160 wRC+ and solid defense. Oscar Mercado has been a painfully disappointing big leaguer, but he has demonstrated tons of power in 2022 with a .564 SLG% in 39 PAs. I’m not sure Mercado can continue this power surge, but his improved exit velocity and barrel rate is encouraging. Lastly, it’s the phenom rookie Steven Kwan. Kwan is slashing .387/.524/.548 with an insane 222 wRC+. He doesn’t hit the ball incredibly hard, but he is an elite contact hitter with a knack for finding gaps. Don’t be shocked if Kwan continues to rake en route to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.

NOTE: The numbers are worsening, but I’m not at all concerned about Kwan.

Detroit Tigers

It would feel wrong not to make the Detroit Tigers segment related to Miguel Cabrera. As I type this, Miggy is closing in on his 3,000th hit. The career accolade is awesome, but it’s also awesome that Cabrera is hitting well so far this year. His power isn’t there anymore (.389 SLG%), but he’s getting on base and still hitting the ball hard. The successor to Miguel Cabrera’s throne, top prospect Spencer Torkelson, has shown great maturity at the big league level. Batting average enjoyers won’t love him (.194 AVG), but Torkelson has a 17.9 BB%, good for 11th of all qualified hitters. He has shown off his 70 grade power with a .419 SLG% and a max exit velocity of 111.5 MPH. He’s legit, no doubt about it.

NOTE: Miguel Cabrera, welcome to the 3,000 hit club.

Kansas City Royals

Top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. has struggled with the big league learning curve, but he’s always worth observing when the Royals are on. Moving on, the Royals bullpen has been intriguing thus far. Flamethrower Josh Staumont has given up 1 ER in 6 IP, Scott Barlow has an ERA of 1.35 through 6.2 IP, and Amir Garrett has yet to surrender a run. To further the cause, lesser known names such as Collin Snider and Dylan Coleman have combined for 9.1 IP without giving up a run. I can confidently say that this bullpen won’t rival the elite 2015 Kansas City bullpen, but a competent bullpen can keep the Royals in games and possibly give them assets to move at the deadline.

Minnesota Twins

I’ll begin this Twins column with a prayer; please Byron Buxton, please stay healthy. Now that that has been taken care of, is 2020 Dylan Bundy back? As a member of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Bundy had a career year in 2020, pitching to a 3.29 ERA and 2.95 FIP in 65.2 IP. Regression was expected, but many believed Bundy could be a front-line starter for the Angels in 2021. Alas, Bundy had a disastrous year, posting a 6.06 ERA and 5.51 FIP in 90.2 IP. Once a possible extension candidate in Anaheim, Dylan Bundy inked a one year deal with Minnesota in the offseason. He looked solid during spring, but it was fair for people to be skeptical about how that would translate into the regular season. Through two starts, Bundy has a 0.87 ERA and 1.82 FIP. His average fastball velocity has dipped to a career-low at 89.5, but he’s located it well and used a quartet of other pitches, as well. My guess is that Dylan Bundy will find a sweet spot between his 2020 and 2021 campaign, let’s go with 4.10 ERA and 4.35 FIP.

AL West

Houston Astros

The reemergence of Justin Verlander is great to see, but not necessarily surprising. The loss of Carlos Correa was expected to be devastating for the Astros, but so far they’ve gotten by just fine. Rookie Jeremy Peña has been flawless in his irst 45 PAs, slashing .308/.364/.590 with a 181 wRC+. He’s not getting cheap hits either, as supported by his 93.2 average exit velocity and 19.4% barrel rate. The bat is good, but Peña can do even more. Pena is a wizard with the glove, producing 3 DRS and 3 OAA before even playing 100 innings. Top it off with elite speed (91st percentile sprint speed per Baseball Savant), Jeremy Peña is the full package. He’ll cool off, but he’s shown flashes that he can be the Astros everyday SS for a long time.

Los Angeles Angels

At the time of this passage being written, the Los Angeles Angels lead the American League in win percentage. We all know the wonders of Shohei Ohtani and it’s worth noting that young outfielder Brandon Marsh is off to a torrid start. What fascinates me about the Angels is the reinvention of Noah Syndergaard. Through two starts, Syndergaard has a 1.59 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 11.1 IP. He’s been great before, what is fascinating about this? Well, Syndergaard established himself as a big strikeout pitcher during his time as a New York Met. In Anaheim, the big righty only has five strikeouts, but has a ground ball rate of 68.6% that ranks second of all pitchers with 10 innings pitched. As he builds up velocity (remember he’s only pitched 13 innings since 2019), the strikeout numbers should rise. Should he maintain this incredible ground ball rate and get his fastball up to high 90s, Noah Syndergaard will be one of the best pitchers in the American League.

Oakland Athletics

Did you know Christian Bethancourt still played baseball? Me neither. Luckily, he’s found himself on the Oakland A’s! Oakland fully tore down their team, stripping just about every piece of any of their former postseason experience (even their manager!). One positive development this year has been the bullpen for the A’s. Former top prospect A.J. Puk has a 1.69 ERA through 5.1 IP, veteran Justin Grimm has given up 1 run in 4 IP, and the duo of Sam Moll and Dany Jimenez have combined for 9 shutout innings. Lou Trivino, who is considered the best reliever of the bunch, hasn’t been off to a great start, but I have faith that he’ll bounce back. It’s been made clear that the A’s love to trade away their players, so the success of the bullpen means they may be able to trade away even more solid players!

NOTE: Grimm has imploded, but the sentiment remains the same.

Seattle Mariners

Robbie Ray? What’s going on buddy? The reigning AL Cy Young winner hasn’t looked the same in the Pacific Northwest. His three starts have produced a 4.19 ERA and 5.66 FIP, but the concerns with Ray go deeper. For starters, his fastball velocity is down almost two MPH from last year. That may be contributing to his lack of strikeouts so far, with Robbie averaging 6.05 K/9 so far, down from where he usually is around 12 K/9. Next, a huge part of Robbie Ray’s resurgence in 2021 had to do with his improved command. In 2020, Ray managed to produce a whopping 7.84 BB/9, then made a full 180 and had just a 2.42 BB/9 in 2021. Through three starts in 2022, his BB/9 has crept up to 3.26. Overall, advanced metrics are less than impressed with the beginning of Ray’s career with the Seattle Mariners. The sample size is tiny, but should these trends continue, Robbie Ray may regress closer to 2019 form, i.e. an average starter rather than an ace.

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers spent lots of money in free agency to bring in talents such as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, but the team is still far from contention. A huge flaw for Texas is their starting pitching. Jon Gray, signed away from Colorado, has been unimpressive in his first two outings. Former top prospects Dane Dunning and Spencer Howard have been horrible. Dunning has made three starts, posting a 5.68 ERA in 12.2 IP while walking a ton of batters. Howard, on the other hand, threw only three innings in his first start before being chased out, giving up six earned runs. Martín Pérez is nothing more than a filler in a rotation, and while Taylor Hearn sports a 1.64 FIP, I don’t see him as much more than a back-of-the-rotation arm. The clear next step for the Texas Rangers towards contention is overhauling the starting rotation. As it is currently constructed, it may be one of the worst units in the sport.

NOTE: Prospect Glenn Otto threw five innings of one run ball in his 2022 debut. The Rangers would love to see him develop into a competent rotational piece.

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading! Will DJ LeMahieu keep up his hot start? Who will be the next player to join the 3,000 hit club? Is Jeremy Peña legit? Let me know in the comments down below!

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