April Observations in the National League

It is way too early to draw conclusions as to how the 2022 MLB will unfold. However, that doesn't mean I can't OBSERVE what has transpired so far this baseball season. So that's exactly what I did right here!

*stats as of April 21st

** important developments since each section being written are noted

NL East

Atlanta Braves

The defending champs haven’t looked the part so far in 2022, albeit they are without superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. for the time being. They are also without 1B Freddie Freeman, although that is likely permanent given his long-term deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s gotta be hard to replicate that kind of production at first base, right? Well, the former Oakland A’s 1B Matt Olson has absolutely mashed for his hometown Braves, slashing .400/.516/.640 with a wRC+ above the moon at 227. He doesn’t just hit the ball, he obliterates it. Olson ranks fourth in MLB in average exit velocity and fifth in total barrels this season. One may think a big lefty like Olson would struggle against left-handed pitching, but Olson rips the ball regardless of who’s pitching. Saying goodbye to Freddie Freeman was challenging, but the Braves made the smart decision trading for Olson, he’ll be one of the best power hitters in baseball for a while.

Miami Marlins

Before this year, Jazz Chisholm Jr. dazzled the baseball world largely with his style and flair. This year, Jazz has coupled that swagger with great results at the plate. Through 32 PAs, Chisholm is slashing .296/.344/.741 with a 192 wRC+. He’s always had the speed and defense and if Jazz can continue to have success offensively, he’ll cement himself as a key building block for the Miami Marlins moving forward. Other youngsters have shown promise too, such as Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz. Sanchez played well in 2021 (116 wRC+) and has continued that with a 177 wRC+ in 2022. One thing I’m looking for Sánchez to improve on is his walk rate, which has been subpar. Bryan De La Cruz had a great debut in 58 games in 2021 and has continued that with a 238 wRC+ in 2022. De La Cruz hits the ball very hard and has a good eye, two key components in making a solid ballplayer.

New York Mets

No deGrom? No problem. Max Scherzer has been great, Chris Bassitt has done well, and Carlos Carrasco has pitched like he did back in Cleveland. None of these observations are particularly surprising. However, the emergence of Tylor Megill is huge for the New York Mets rotation. As a rookie in 2021, Megill posted a 4.52 ERA and 4.69 FIP in 89.2 IP. Those numbers aren’t great, but indicated that Megill could be a useful backend starter and, if nothing else, an innings eater. Fast forward to 2022, Jacob deGrom’s injury thrusted Megill into the role of the Opening Day starter. He absolutely delivered, posting five shutout innings and only surrendering three hits. He rode that momentum into another stellar start, shutting out the Philadelphia Phillies over 5 ⅓ IP. Tylor didn’t pitch as well against the San Francisco Giants in his last start, but his 2.20 ERA and 2.38 FIP to start the year is phenomenal. Megill isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, but he’s done a terrific job limiting walks in 2022. As well, his average fastball velocity is up to 96.0 MPH, placing him in the 90th percentile of all of baseball. Tylor Megill may not keep up this hot start, but his emergence as a quality pitcher makes a deep Mets rotation even deeper.

Philadelphia Phillies

Coming into the season, many (including myself) expected the Phillies to have a potent offense, a respectable rotation, and a porous bullpen. Thus far, the rotation has been lackluster for Philadelphia. Zack Wheeler is coming off a disastrous start against Miami, giving up seven runs through only three innings. His velocity is down to 94.9 MPH, although I’d assume he’ll add velocity as the season goes on. If the velocity doesn’t correct itself, however, I may worry about Wheeler. Aaron Nola is looking for a bounce back season in 2022, but the results haven’t been great so far (5.52 ERA and 5.85 FIP). Ranger Suárez has been shaky, Zach Eflin hasn’t been great, leaving Kyle Gibson as the only solid starter so far in 2022. I expect positive regression for guys such as Wheeler and Nola, but it truly is integral for the Phillies to have strong starting pitching if they want to return to the postseason.

Washington Nationals

Outside of Juan Soto, the Washington Nationals are bereft of talent. Trading Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the deadline last year signaled a big rehaul for the Nats. The headliners of that trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers were RHP Josiah Gray and C Keibert Ruiz. Gray had growing pains when he debuted in 2021, but this isn’t unusual for young pitchers. So far in 2022, the results have been positive for Josiah. He coughed up four runs in four innings in his season debut against the New York Mets, but has bounced back in his last two starts, throwing 10.1 innings while only surrendering one run. The next step for Josiah Gray is limiting walks in the big leagues, as he’s averaged over 4 BB/9 in his 85 big league innings. On the other hand, Keibert Ruiz had a respectable 2021 season, posting a 101 wRC+ in 96 plate appearances. He’s started off slow in 2022, slashing .261/.255/.326 with a measly 61 wRC+. However, Ruiz hits the ball hard, as shown by his 34.1% hard hit rate this season. Like his teammate Josiah, Keibert needs to improve on walks. He only walked 6.3% of the time in 2021 and has yet to walk in 2022, not good. For the greatness they gave up (Scherzer and Turner), there are lofty expectations for this duo.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Seiya. Suzuki. Possibly the biggest storyline of the 2022 season so far has been the debut of Japanese phenom Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki’s stardom in the NPB is undeniably, given that he posted a career slashline of .315/.414/.570 with 182 HRs over nine seasons. His track record indicated that he could find success in Major League Baseball, but there is often a sharp learning curve from the NPB to MLB. Through 16 games as a Cub, Seiya is slashing .354/.492/.688 with a 227 wRC+ and 4 HRs. Regression is inevitable, however he’s demonstrated that he can handle the change to MLB pitching. It’s early, but Seiya Suzuki certainly has the inside track to the NL Rookie of the Year.

Cincinnati Reds

There isn’t a ton of excitement in Cincinnati. It is disgraceful the way in which Bob Castellini has dismantled this organization. Thus far, the Reds only have three players that are at/exceed the league wide average wRC+ of 100. The pitching hasn’t been much better, but there is certainly more hope. Highly touted prospects RHP Hunter Greene and LHP Nick Lodolo have arrived at Great American Ball Park, and although the results have been inconsistent, they serve as a glimmer of hope for a team in the gutters. Greene has a 5.27 ERA in 13.2 IP, but he is averaging nearly 100 MPH on his fastball with a great spin rate. He isn’t struggling with striking guys out or generating whiffs, rather he is walking too many batters and giving up a significant amount of hard contact. One must keep in mind that Greene is only 22 years old with limited experience at the higher level of the minor leagues. He’s far from a finished product, but it’s hard not to be excited and wowed by Hunter Greene. Nick Lodolo doesn’t throw 100 MPH like Greene, but he has just as great of a pedigree as his fellow rookie. Lodolo has a 5.52 ERA over 14.2 IP in 2022, but his peripherals (4.58 FIP, 2.81 xFIP, 3.53 xERA) are encouraging. Nick is primarily a sinker ball pitcher, throwing his sinker nearly 60% of the time. His secondary pitches haven’t fared well in the bigs yet, but his sinker has been generally successful against big league hitters. Lodolo also needs to limit the walks, but he has the makeup of a front line starter in the future.

Milwaukee Brewers

While the Brewers rotation continues to succeed, the offense has been abysmal. The catalyst is the former NL MVP, Christian Yelich. Yelich is slashing .192/.302/.327 with a 85 wRC+ over 63 PAs. It truly is a mixed bag for Yelich, as shown by his strong 12.7 BB% (75th percentile), but a horrific .327 SLG%. It goes even deeper! Yelich has a 60% hard hit rate (4th in all of baseball) and a 14.3% barrel rate (84th percentile). Those numbers alone would lead one to believe that Yelich is a great hitter, but he strikes out at a prolific rate and has a ground ball rate nearing 50%. Couple those numbers with an incredibly low BABIP (.265) and you have the conundrum that is 2022 Christian Yelich; he hits the ball hard, but doesn’t lift the ball enough and has been slightly unlucky. The Brew Crew doesn’t need Christian to play at an MVP level, but they need him to exceed the stats of an average player in order for the team to have a chance of going deep into the postseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

While we eagerly await the arrival of SS O’Neill Cruz, don’t look past the hot start from 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes. Hayes was mediocre in 2021, posting a 88 wRC+ in 396 PAs. However, he’s been clicking on all cylinders in 2022. Through 15 games, Hayes is slashing .327/.407/.423 with a 146 wRC+. I wouldn’t go as far to say that he’s been flawless, but he’s hit the ball hard, walked at a solid rate, and limited strikeouts. Don’t forget about Ke’Bryan’s glove either! In 2021, he produced 16 DRS and 13 OAA in 766.1 innings, while he’s already produced 4 DRS and 1 OAA in 2022. He’s fast too! His power numbers aren’t eye-popping, but Ke’Bryan Hayes appears to be on track to becoming one of the premier third basemen in the sport.

St. Louis Cardinals

For the St. Louis Cardinals, it’s easy to observe the tremendous start from 3B Nolan Arenado, as well as the return of Albert Pujols (he hasn’t been bad!). Digging deeper, switch-hitting outfielder Dylan Carlson is in a peculiar situation. A former top prospect, Carlson struggled in his debut season in 2020 (he was my ROTY pick!). In 2021, he improved his walk rate and tapped into some gap power. Following his 113 wRC+ season in 2021, many (including myself) thought that Dylan Carlson could take another step forward. Alas, he has begun the 2022 season slashing .218/.262/.273 with a 60 wRC+. Unlike the aforementioned Christian Yelich, the underlying numbers don’t see a ton of positives from Dylan. Sure, his .240 BABIP should increase, but Carlson’s primary issue is that he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough. Through 61 plate appearances in 2022, Carlson has yet to barrel a ball and has a weak 16% hard hit rate. It doesn’t help that he has a 52% ground ball rate, either. He is only 23 and has time to further develop, but my faith in Dylan Carlson is beginning to dwindle.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are 6-10, but there are some intriguing aspects of this roster. Everyone loves (Seth) Beer, but it’s Arizona’s pitching staff that caught my eye. Zach Davies has performed poorly, but every other consistent starter on the team has an ERA at or below 2.00. Merrill Kelly has dazzled in 15.1 innings, surrendering only one run and striking out 28.6% of the batters he’s faced. These guys haven’t pitched a ton, but Zac Gallen (1.00 ERA), Humberto Castellanos (2.00), and Tyler Gilbert (1.59) have been more than serviceable. Am I forgetting anyone? Oh. Madison Bumgarner still pitches? After failing to make it out of the third inning on Opening Day, Bumgarner has surrendered only one run over his last fifteen innings. He’s not throwing hard, he’s not getting strikeouts, and he’s walking way too many batters, but he has a 1.00 ERA as of now. Will that balloon as the season goes on? Probably. For now, though, MadBum is getting the job done. In total, the Arizona staff has a 2.36 cumulative ERA, good enough for the second best of all teams in the league.

Colorado Rockies

Kris Bryant is the big name on the Rockies, but he’s had an unimpressive start to the season. A Rockie who has been impressive is 1B/OF Connor Joe. A former Rule 5 pick, Joe quietly had a great 2021 in Colorado (116 wRC+ in 63 games). In 2022, Joe has absolutely raked, posting a slashline of .327/.422/.600 with a 181 wRC+. He doesn’t hit the ball ridiculously hard, but he has a great feel for the strike zone, which has culminated in a 12.5 BB% and only a 17.2 K%. Playing at Coors Fields is nice for hitters, but Connor Joe hits well regardless of where he is. In 2022, Joe has a 216 wRC+ on the road and a 155 wRC+ at home. He may not be a super sexy player, but Connor Joe has an argument to be the best player on the Colorado Rockies.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Welcome back, Cody Bellinger. After a disgustingly bad 2021 season and 2022 spring training, the former MVP is back to hitting the cover off the ball. In 60 plate appearances, Bellinger is hitting at a clip of .273/.333/.582 with a 165 wRC+ and 4 HRs. His power vanished in 2021, but he’s hitting the ball hard 51.4% of the time in 2022. He strikes out a ton, but I tend to believe strikeouts are more of a pitching stat than a hitting stat. At face value, it shouldn’t be that shocking to see a former MVP bounce back from a tough season. Except it wasn’t just a tough season, Bellinger had a 48 wRC+ over 95 games in 2021, good for the second worst mark among batters with 350 plate appearances. In 2019 (his MVP season), Cody had no weakness as a hitter, producing only red marks on his Baseball Savant page (if you know, you know). Then in 2021, he didn’t do anything right at the plate. The case of Cody Bellinger is fascinating. For now, Cody Bellinger is hitting incredibly.

San Diego Padres

For the beginning of the season, the Padres are looking to merely right the ship until their star SS Fernando Tatís Jr. returns from a wrist injury. The offense is putrid without Fernando, but the starting pitching has been dazzling. San Diego’s own Joe Musgrove has led the charge, posting a 1.89 ERA in 19 IP. Despite a blowup start in his last start against the Dodgers, LHP Sean Manaea has a 3.47 ERA and nearly threw a no-hitter in his Padres debut. Speaking of blowup starts and near no-hitters, Yu Darvish bizarrely surrendered 9 ER in his third start of the year, but has allowed only 1 ER through his other 18.2 IP. Top prospect MacKenzie Gore has looked the part in his first two starts in MLB, holding a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 IP. With Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger nearing full health, the Padres will have a logjam of starting options. I see no reason that this unit won’t conclude the season as one of the best rotations in all of baseball.

San Francisco Giants

Following an improbable run in 2021, the baseball world has been waiting to see what the San Francisco Giants do for an encore in 2022. Face of the franchise catcher Buster Posey rode into the sunset of retirement following last season, opening up a hole behind the plate. Enter Joey Bart. Bart, the former #2 pick out of Georgia Tech in 2018, absolutely mashed in his first two minor league seasons. Then, Joey was thrusted into the bigs during the 2020 COVID season, producing a slashline of .233/.288/.320 with a 69 wRC+ in 111 PAs. It was clear that he wasn’t ready, which prompted the Giants to return him to AAA for the majority of the 2021 season. After looking like himself in 2021, and following the retirement of Posey, Joey Bart seemed poised to become the full-time catcher in San Francisco. So far, Bart has made the majority of starts over backup Curt Casali and the results aren’t incredible, but they are encouraging. In 43 PAs, Bart is slashing .171/.326/.371 with a 115 wRC+. The cons with him are that he’s striking out at a ridiculous rate (48.8%) and isn’t generating enough power, but Bart is walking at a phenomenal rate (16.3%), hitting the ball hard (50% hard hit rate), and has produced an above-average wRC+ (note: offensive statistics are WAY down to start 2022). Filling Buster Posey’s shoes is a tough task, but I believe Joey Bart, should his power continue to improve, will be a more than competent replacement for the future Hall of Famer.