Big Ten College Football Preview

For folks like me, Christmas doesn’t come on December 25th. Rather, Christmas is the first college football Saturday of the year, when I can wake up to ESPN’s College Gameday, flip over to Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff, and hours later conclude my day with some good, old-fashioned Pac-12 after dark. The 2022 college football season is nearly upon us, so this week I will be putting out predictions for each power five conference, starting off with the Big Ten.

* denotes division winner

** denotes conference champion

West

Wisconsin Badgers* (11-1, 8-1)

Year after year, the DNA of the Wisconsin Badgers remains the same; run the ball and play defense. Running the ball shouldn’t be an issue for Wisconsin, given that they bring back star RB Braelon Allen, who’s coming off of a 1,200 yard season in 2021. Wisconsin’s trouble may be in the pass game, where the Badgers struggled immensely last year and now lose several top targets for this season. QB Graham Mertz doesn’t need to be perfect, he just needs to be efficient and limit turnovers. The defense loses a fair amount of talent, including leading LBs Leo Chenal and Jack Sanborn. Expect third-year LB Nick Herbig to emerge as the face of the defense and a menace to opposing Big Ten offenses. Above all, I trust the strong coaching of head coach Paul Chryst and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard to help propel Wisconsin to a Big Ten West title.

Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2, 7-2)

Iowa operates in a very similar fashion to Wisconsin, but the Hawkeyes rely even heavier on their defense. The defense delivered in 2021 and should continue to stifle opponents with talented returners such as LB Jack Campbell and CB Riley Moss. In my Big Ten podcast, I identified LB Jestin Jacobs as a possible breakout candidate. The offense is… uh… not great. The QB room is a mess with neither RS Senior Spencer Petras nor RS Junior Alex Padilla inspiring too much confidence with their play. Iowa also loses two of its best offensive players from 2021 in C Tyler Linderbaum and RB Tyler Goodson. If the QB and offensive line play can hover around average, the Hawkeyes will have a great chance at returning to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship. Iowa QBs, please get the ball to TE Sam LaPorta, he’s a baller that has had his production handicapped by an inadequate passing game.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4, 5-4)

If you want experience, this Minnesota offense has it. QB Tanner Morgan and top WR Chris Autman-Bell have been college students since prohibition (or maybe 2017), while RB Mohamed Ibrahim has amassed over 3,000 rushing yards at Minnesota. The talent and experience is evident at the skill positions, but Minnesota has to overhaul the offensive line with only one returning starter. Additionally, the front seven of the defense loses a ton, including NFL draftee EDGE Boye Mafe. There is a bit more continuity in the Golden Gophers secondary, which bodes well for one of the Big Ten’s top defenses in 2021. With a weak non-conference slate and a relatively favorable cross-division matchups (no Ohio State or Michigan), it's quite conceivable that P.J. Fleck’s squad gets back up to nine wins and contends for the Big Ten West crown.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-5, 5-4)

It really is make-or-break for Scott Frost in Lincoln. Heading into his fourth season at the helm of the Cornhuskers, Frost has amassed an atrocious 15-29 record. That performance wouldn’t fly at a MAC school, let alone for such a proud program like Nebraska. Personnel wise, the offense has several new faces, including Texas transfer QB Casey Thompson and former Pitt offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. I expect improvement for the Nebraska offense, but they lack firepower. Defensively, they landed impact transfers in former TCU DL Ochaun Mathis and former Alabama DL Stephon Wynn. When you add in the return of leading LB Luke Reimer, there’s reason to feel optimistic about the Nebraska defense. The scheduling for the Cornhuskers is interesting. They’re eased into the season with matchups against Northwestern, North Dakota, and Georgia Southern. On the other hand, they close out the season with Michigan (away), Wisconsin (home), and Iowa (away). It’s certainly possible that Nebraska wins 8-9 games and Scott Frost’s seat gets cooler, but it’s equally as possible that they have a repeat 3-9 season that concludes with boosters chasing Frost out of town. That’s Nebraska football!

NOTE: After Nebraska’s opening loss to Northwestern… things aren’t looking great in Lincoln.

Purdue Boilermakers (6-6, 3-6)

Coming off of a great 2021 season that concluded with a thrilling win in the Music City Bowl, Purdue has a lot of production to replace. They bring back signal-caller Aidan O’Connell (3,712 yards and 28 TDs in 2021), but bid farewell to top receiving options David Bell, Jackson Anthrop, and Milton Wright (academically ineligible). The Boilermakers added WR Charlie Jones from Iowa out of the transfer portal, but he alone won’t fill the void left by Bell and company. The defense was (generally) stellar last season, but they lost George Karlaftis from the line and Jaylan Alexander at the second level. Purdue’s schedule isn’t too grueling (no Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State) and they should have steady production at the QB position, but I have a hard time predicting them more than 6 or 7 wins given the production they are losing.

Northwestern Wildcats (5-7, 2-7)

Northwestern has had runs of success over the past few years, but the Wildcats had a disastrous 2021 season, finishing at 3-9. The offense has some pieces, including LT Peter Skoronski and 1,000 yard rusher Evan Hull. QB play will determine the success of the Northwestern offense, with Ryan Hilinski the favorite to man the job. He’s shown flashes, going all the way back to his time at South Carolina, but has yet to put it all together. The defense was porous in 2021, but the Wildcats return a majority of starters, sans stud S Brandon Joseph. CB A.J. Hampton is a player to watch for on defense. Pat Fitzgerald is a great coach, but I don’t foresee great things for his squad in 2022.

NOTE: Congrats on the Week 0 win over Nebraska!

Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9, 0-9)

Quietly, Illinois nearly made a bowl game in 2021. It was an important step forward for Bret Bielma, but regression is likely coming. QB Tommy DeVito swapped Syracuse orange for Illinois… orange and is expected to be the starter. Expect a ton of usage from RB Chase Brown, who is coming off of a 1,000 yard season. The defense was serviceable last season and returns half of its starters. Overall, the Fighting Illini didn’t get significantly worse, but they also didn’t add too much substance to a flawed roster.

NOTE: Illinois looked good in Week 0, but it was Wyoming.

East

Ohio State Buckeyes** (12-0, 9-0)

For most programs, an 11-2 season that concluded with a Rose Bowl victory would be a humongous success. In Columbus, however, Ohio State isn’t satisfied after losing to rival Michigan for the first time in ages. The Buckeyes will be without first round wideouts Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, but they’re offense is in fine hands with QB C.J. Stroud returning. Stroud is a bonafide Heisman candidate himself, but backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson and top receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba are also viable candidates to take home the trophy. Throw in a strong offensive line, headlined by LT Paris Johnson Jr., and other complimentary pieces such as WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Julian Fleming, and you have yourself one of the premier offenses in the country. The pitfall for the Buckeyes in 2021 was their defense. After poaching defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State, I feel much more confident in Ohio State on defense. The defensive line is oozing with talent, featuring former top recruits in Zach Harrison, J.T. Tuimoloau, and Jack Sawyer. The Ohio State Buckeyes are not just the clear frontrunner to win the Big Ten, they are one of the strongest contenders to win it all in 2022.

Michigan Wolverines (10-2, 7-2)

What a time to be a Michigan Wolverine! Last year was a special season for the maize and blue, featuring a Big Ten title, College Football Playoff berth, and… you know… they finally beat Ohio State. Michigan returns starting QB Cade McNamara, but it remains to be seen if he reclaims his starting role or if second-year QB J.J. McCarthy emerges as QB1. Regardless of who is taking the snaps, there will be tons of handoffs to dynamic junior Blake Corum and local legend Donovan Edwards. Most of Michigan's 2021 receivers are returning, including Ronnie Bell, who is returning for a fifth year after missing (essentially) all of last year with an injury. The defense doesn’t have the same level of continuity after Aidan Hutchinson, Daxton Hill, and David Ojabo all turned pro. If you’re looking for a new game wrecker on the Wolverine defense, look no further than DT Mazi Smith, a total vacuum on the inside who is poised for a big senior season. The defense will likely take a step back, but it should remain one of the better units in the conference. In total, it will be incredibly challenging for Michigan to recreate last season’s success, but they have the blend of talent and experience to do so. As it did last year (and as it usually does), Michigan’s championship aspirations boil down to their performance against Ohio State. They beat them once, but can they do it again in Columbus?

Maryland Terrapins (8-4, 6-3)

Maryland? Yeah, Maryland. Screw the Spartans and Nittany Lions, I have the Terrapins finishing third in the Big Ten East. QB Taulia Tagovailoa started to find his groove in 2021 and settle into a more consistent passer, as shown by his 26/11 TD to INT ratio and 3,860 passing yards. To add, Tagovailoa’s weapons are some of the best in the country. Former five-star and 2021 leading receiver WR Rakim Jarrett is back, along with a healthy Dontay Demus Jr., who was off to a blazing start last year before getting injured and is a nightmare to guard at 6’4”. Maryland also took a flier on talented former Florida WR Jacob Copeland, who could emerge as a solid third option. The defense was abominable last year, but new (promoted) defensive coordinator Brian Williams has seven returning starters at his disposal. With marginal improvement from the defense, Maryland can compete in every game they’ll play. Their schedule is tough, but they avoid Iowa and Minnesota in crossplay and host their toughest non-conference opponent (SMU) at home. At bare minimum, Maryland should be exciting on offense.

Michigan State Spartans (8-4, 5-4)

Michigan State may have been the biggest surprise team in the country last year, setting them up for an encore in 2022. This encore will be without star RB Kenneth Walker III, who is off to greener (greener than Michigan State green?) pastures as a Seattle Seahawk, but it will feature returning QB Payton Thorne and his top WR Jayden Reed. MSU may rely on Thorne throwing the ball a bit more without Walker in the backfield, but the Spartans added a talented RB duo of Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard from the transfer portal. It’ll be interesting to see who steps up as the third option in the passing game with WR Jalen Nailor and TE/FB Connor Heyward departing. The achilles heel for the Spartans in 2021 was their pass defense, which ranked among the worst units in the sport. Georgia CB transfer Ameer Speed should have a big role and S Xavier Henderson could take a step forward. An early season trip to Seattle to square off against Washington should be a good indicator of what the Spartans are capable of this season.

Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5, 4-5)

Penn State may be the toughest Big Ten team to evaluate heading into this season. They started off 5-0 last year before falling off of a cliff and finishing with a 7-6 record. QB Sean Clifford returns for a fifth year, which is nice for stability, but he hasn’t proven to be a true difference maker and star. RB Keyvone Lee is back, but his running mate RB Noah Cain has departed for LSU. Speaking of departures, top WR Jahan Dotson is now a Washington Commander. Fortunately, WR Parker Washington is back and poised for a big year as the WR1, while the RB room was bolstered with the addition of five star RB Nick Singleton. Weapons aside, Penn State’s offensive success is largely dependent on Sean Clifford elevating from a game manager to a game changer. The defense will be without NFL draftees Arnold Ebiketie and Brandon Smith, but new defensive coordinator Manny Diaz inherits a fair amount of returning talent, including DT PJ Mustipher and CB Joey Porter. The Nittany Lions are capable of winning 10 games, but I have a hard time putting my faith in Sean Clifford against the heavyweights of the conference.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-9, 1-8)

Rutgers had a losing record in 2021, but looked like a much more competent team than some of the Scarlet Knight teams in recent memory. The offense loses two legit playmakers to the NFL in RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Bo Melton. Syracuse transfer WR Taj Harris was a nice addition, but he won’t be a big factor if the QB play doesn’t improve. Noah Vedral, the primary QB in 2021, returns, as does Gavin Wimsatt, who appeared in four games. If the QB play doesn’t improve, the offense will be miserable, plain and simple. The defense has a couple intriguing players in the secondary, led by safeties Avery Young and Christian Izien. CB Max Melton is a player that could emerge as a significant contributor for the Scarlet Knights. I believe that Greg Schiano has the program on the right track, but this team is deficient in talent and their schedule isn’t easy.

Indiana Hoosiers (3-9, 1-8)

Last year, I really believed in Indiana. I was hooked on the electricity of Michael Penix Jr., the sure hands of Ty Fryfogle, and the punishment enforced by Micah McFadden. Spoiler alert, Indiana went 2-10. Now, Michael Penix is gone and the QB battle is between returner Jack Tuttle and Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak. The cupboard is bare regarding weapons with virtually all of IU’s rushing production gone and top targets WR Ty Fryfogle and TE Peyton Hendershot off to the pros. Auburn transfer RB Shaun Shivers figures to be the top rushing option and hopefully WR D.J. Matthews Jr. returns to his 2018 Florida State form. The defense was bad in 2021 and the Hoosiers will be without the heart and soul of the team, LB Micah McFadden, in 2022. Within what figures to be a fairly poor defense, CB Tiawan Mullen is a legit NFL draft prospect and former first team All-American. The Indiana football team may not be too great this season, but hey! It should be a special season in Assembly Hall for the basketball team!

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Will Michigan repeat as champs? Does Maryland break out as a team? Will Scott Frost save his job and right the ship at Nebraska? Let me know in the comments below!

Don't forget to follow our Instagram, Twitter, andcheck out the podcast!