CBB Conference Tournament Predictions

This is March. Before the official madness, we have championship week across each conference in college basketball. For insight into several of the notable tournaments, continue to read below! Also, a big shoutout to Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, and Warren Nolan for the statistics that they provide and I reference throughout this article.

ACC

Favorite: Miami (24-6, 15-5)

Sleeper: NC State (22-9, 12-8)

My Pick: Miami

In a conference with so many teams clumped together and vying for postseason representation, it feels misleading to label any specific team as the favorite. As the layout is formed, however, I would deem the Miami Hurricanes as the favorites in the ACC. College basketball isn’t short on fun guards, but Miami’s backcourt trio of Isaiah Wong (16.2 PPG), Jordan Miller (15.1 PPG), and Nijel Pack (13.6 PPG) is must-watch TV. The Hurricanes score at a frenetic pace, averaging 79.7 PPG (1st in ACC) and ranking 11th in adjusted offense. Defense isn’t exactly Miami’s bread and butter, which can leave them vulnerable to certain upsets, but they can shoot any team out of the arena on any given night. Moving on, the NC State Wolfpack are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament, but they’ve been an inconsistent unit. The Wolfpack have generally taken care of business against the doormats of the conference, but they’re 2-6 in Quadrant 1 matchups and lack a signature non-conference win. Personnel wise, Gs Terquavion Smith (17.3 PPG, 4.4 APG) and Jarkel Joiner (17.3 PPG, 3.5 APG) were both recognized on the all-ACC list, while F/C D.J. Burns (13.1 PPG) is an immovable object in the post. NC State has the scorers to make a run in the ACC and NCAA Tournament, it’s merely a matter of improving their efficiency. To conclude, I think there are about seven teams capable of winning the ACC Tournament and securing an automatic bid to March Madness, but I’m sticking with Miami to get the job done. THE U!

Big 12

Favorite: Kansas (25-6, 13-5)

Sleeper: Texas Tech (16-15, 5-13)

My Pick: Kansas State (23-8, 11-7)

By all accounts, the Big 12 has been the best conference in college basketball this season. The league tends to “cannibalize” themselves, but nearly all of the teams in the conference have a shot at making the NCAA Tournament. The de facto favorites are the Kansas Jayhawks, the defending national champions and winners of the Big 12 regular season title. Kansas lost many of the key pieces from last year’s title run, but F Jalen Wilson (19.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG) returned to school and has emerged as a star. Bill Self infused this roster with new talent, namely freshman G/F Gradey Dick (14.5 PPG) and Texas Tech transfer G/F Kevin McCullar (11.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG). The Jayhawks are a well-rounded unit and have proven themselves to be a national contender time and time again, as demonstrated by their 15 wins against quadrant 1 opponents. Should Kansas and the other heavyweights get knocked out, don’t be surprised if it's at the hands of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas Tech has had an incredibly disappointing year by their own standards, but have looked much better over the last month. The Red Raiders compiled a four game winning streak in the middle of February, which included wins over Kansas State and Texas, before losing in heartbreak fashion against TCU (83-82) and Kansas (67-63). One reason for Texas Tech’s mini-resurgence is the return of big man Fardaws Aimaq (12.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG), a Utah Valley transfer who didn’t debut until the middle of January. In short, Texas Tech is a talented and (generally) well-coached team that could get hot this week and steal an NCAA Tournament bid. Kansas is the storied program of the state, but I’m riding with the rival Kansas State Wildcats to win the conference tournament. Coach Jerome Tang has turned the program around quicker than anyone could’ve imagined and should be a lock for National Coach of the Year. Fifth-year senior G Markquis Nowell (16.8 PPG, 7.7 APG) is one of the most electric players in the country and was a key carryover from last year’s KSU team, while fifth-year transfer F Keyontae Johnson (17.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG) has recovered incredibly from his heart condition that threatened to end his basketball career back in 2020. The Wildcats have gone toe-to-toe with the best competition in the country and have continued to show themselves to be one of the best teams in the country. Getting through the gauntlet that is the Big 12 tournament is no easy task, but Kansas State has been putting on a show all season long and I believe they can get it done.

*Note: Since writing this excerpt, Texas Tech has placed coach Mark Adams on administrative leave with an internal investigation being launched. With that being said, I don’t love the Red Raiders as a sleeper anymore, but we shall see.

Big East

Favorite: Marquette (25-6, 17-3)

Sleeper: Villanova (16-15, 10-10)

My Pick: Villanova

The Big East will surely have several teams dancing in March, but no team will enter the field with loftier expectations than the Marquette Golden Eagles. Despite losing their top two scorers from last season, Marquette has surged to the top of the Big East behind breakout years from Gs Kam Jones (15.3 PPG) and Tyler Kolek (12.7 PPG, 7.9 APG). Marquette puts on an offensive clinic night in and night out, ranking 7th in the country for adjusted offensive efficiency and 1st in two point shot efficiency. They aren’t invincible, but the opposing team will have to bring their offensive A-game in order to take down Marquette, hence why they’re the favorite in this conference tournament. My favorite candidate in all of the country to steal a bid is Villanova. Following the retirement of coach Jay Wright, Villanova looked lost for the majority of the year. The Wildcats brought back several contributors from last year’s Final Four team, but they were without veteran G Justin Moore for the first several months, as he was rehabbing from a torn achilles he suffered in last year’s tournament. Moore has brought some much needed energy to the team, averaging 13.6 PPG and serving as a catalyst in Villanova’s recent upsets over Xavier and Creighton. F Eric Dixon (15.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and G Caleb Daniels (14.6 PPG) have been great for Villanova over the past several seasons, and then when you combine them with the return of Moore, as well as the continued development of prized freshman F Cam Whitmore (12.6 PPG), it’s not hard to imagine this team making a run in the Big East tournament. As a matter of fact, the Villanova Wildcats are my pick to win the Big East tournament and qualify for an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. I believe their overarching talent will shine through and a healthy Justin Moore will power them across the finish line.

Big Ten

Favorite: Purdue (26-5, 15-5)

Sleeper: Penn State (19-12, 10-10)

My Pick: Indiana (21-10, 12-8)

At this point it feels like a bit of a stretch to declare Purdue as the favorite, given that they had a sub-.500 record in the month of February and look tired. Alas, they won the Big Ten regular season title by a fair margin and are the only team in the conference with single digit losses. When you talk about the 2022-2023 Purdue Boilermakers, you must start (and maybe stop) with C Zach Edey, who stands at 7’4” and has run away with the Wooden Award thanks to a monstrous statline of 22.1 PPG, 13.1 RPG, and 2.3 BPG. Edey was productive in limited minutes during the past two seasons, but with his usage cranked all the way up now, he is borderline unstoppable. The primary contributors outside of Edey are freshman Gs Fletcher Loyer (11.9 PPG) and Braden Smith (9.8 PPG, 4.2 APG), who lack experience, but can knock down tough shots when needed. My sleeper team in the Big Ten got blown out by Purdue twice, but has the makeup of a team capable of making a nice run. Penn State has lost more games than they’ve won in conference play, but they have also captured some marquee road wins, like a blowout victory at Illinois and an overtime thriller at Northwestern. What enables Penn State to pull off high-level upsets is their prolific offense, ranked 15th in the country by adjusted efficiency and led by dynamic duo of Gs Jalen Pickett (18.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 7.0 APG) and Seth Lundy (14.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG). The Nittany Lions defense leaves much to be desired, but with Pickett and Lundy firing on all cylinders, Penn State can compete with most teams in the country. While I think Penn State is capable of making a conference tournament run and finding their way into March Madness, Indiana is my pick to win the conference. Returning for his senior year, F/C Trayce Jackson-Davis has lived up to All-American expectations, averaging 20.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG, and 2.8 BPG. With the unfortunate injuries suffered by fifth-year G Xavier Johnson, freshman G Jalen Hood-Schifino has been integral for this team, averaging 13.4 PPG and serving as one of the primary ball-handlers. Indiana isn’t exactly a sexy team, but they’re very well-rounded and can win games even when the three-pointer isn’t falling. The depth and experience of the Hoosiers will serve them very well come the postseason, hence making them a safe bet to perform well.

Mountain West

Favorite: San Diego State (24-6, 15-3)

Sleeper: Fresno State (11-19, 6-12)

My Pick: New Mexico (21-10, 8-10)

Like most years, the San Diego State Aztecs lead the way in the Mountain West. Brian Dutcher’s team is both deep and experienced, with fifth-year G Matt Bradley (13.0 PPG) leading the way. The offense doesn’t produce eye-popping numbers, but any of the nine players in their rotation can lead the team in scoring on any given night. The Aztecs are famously known for their stout defense and boy can these 2022-2023 Aztecs play defense. Bart Torvik has SDSU ranked 8th nationally in adjusted defense and 15th in three-point defense. Depending on how the conference tournament goes, San Diego State could climb to as high as a four seed in the NCAA Tournament. If you’re looking for a deep sleeper in the Mountain West, look no further than the Fresno State Bulldogs! Their regular season results were lackluster, but they were able to hold their own against the conference heavyweights such as SDSU and Nevada. Fresno State doesn’t lack experience, as leading scorer and former Kentucky and Arizona G Jemarl Baker (12.8 PPG) is in his fifth-season of college basketball. I wouldn’t put any money on Fresno State, but I think they can win their first matchup and keep it close with San Diego State. If you know me and my college basketball allegiances, you’d know with certainty that I’m picking New Mexico to win the Mountain West tournament. The Lobos were the last undefeated team in the country, headlined by a huge win on the road against Saint Mary’s. As conference play rolled around, New Mexico struggled to pull away late in games, resulting in several losses at the buzzer, such as the heartbreaking double overtime loss in Reno against Nevada (best college basketball game of the year, by the way). Now, New Mexico has fallen off of the bubble and almost certainly needs to win the Mountain West to make March Madness. Lucky for coach Richard Pitino, he has a trio of elite scoring options in F Morris Udeze (16.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and the guard duo of Jamal Mashburn (19.5 PPG) and Jaelen House (16.8 PPG, 4.7 APG). Ranked 19th nationally in adjusted offense, this team can score, it’s just simply a matter of if they can get defensive stops during crunch time. The odds are stacked against New Mexico, given that they’ll have to win four games in four days and will be greeted by a motivated bubble team in Utah State in the second round. With that being said, I will ride and die with these Lobos, give me New Mexico to steal a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Pac-12

Favorite: UCLA (27-4, 18-2)

Sleeper: Utah (17-14, 10-10)

My Pick: Arizona (25-6, 14-6)

UCLA has been a dominant force this season, a well-oiled machine with Pac-12 Coach of the Year Mick Cronin at the helm. F Jaime Jaquez (17.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG) was named as the Pac-12 Player of the Year, G Jaylen Clark (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 SPG) was named the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, C Adem Bona (7.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) was named the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, and G Tyger Campbell (12.9 PPG, 4.7 APG) received first team all-Pac-12 honors. Sense a theme? UCLA has such a cohesive squad that plays all forty minutes with 110% effort. They don’t score at a prolific clip, but they can shut down any opposing offense in the country and have playmakers (namely Jaquez) that can make shots in the clutch. The uncertain status of Jaylen Clark (lower leg) is a concern for the Bruins, but they remain the favorites. If you’re looking for the perfect example of what streakiness is, look no farther than the Utah Utes. In conference play, Utah had four winning streaks and three losing streaks with no sandwiching of wins and losses. As a matter of fact, the Utes were 10-5 in conference play heading into mid-February before dropping five straight. Picking a team that is so cold going into the tournament to make a run is bizarre, but it would be perfectly fitting for the inconsistent nature of this Utah team. Personnel wise, Utah has a steady presence inside with C Branden Carlson (16.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) and three (inconsistent) outside threats in Gs Gabe Madsen (11.5 PPG), Lazar Stefanovic (10.3 PPG), and Marco Anthony (9.8 PPG). The second round matchup against Arizona seems daunting for Utah, but don’t forget that the Utes blew the Wildcats out back in December. Speaking of the Wildcats, Arizona is my pick to win the conference tournament. Despite losing three NBA first-round picks, Arizona has been a top ten team in America all season long. The lead man is F Azuolas Tubelis (19.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG), but the emergence of C Oumar Ballo (13.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG) ought not to be overlooked. While that duo down low can terrorize the paint, Gs Courtney Ramey (10.8 PPG) and Kerr Kriisa (10.7 PPG) are two of the best shooters in the conference. Arizona doesn’t go too deep into their bench, but look for young (17 years young) G Kylan Boswell (4.5 PPG) to provide some energy when he steps onto the court. Arizona is 3rd in the country with 83.1 PPG, and if UCLA is without defensive ace Jaylen Clark, I think it's fair to expect the Wildcats to play fast and turn the (assumed championship) game into a shootout. Cats cut down the nets in Las Vegas.

SEC

Favorite: Alabama (26-5, 16-2)

Sleeper: Arkansas (19-12, 8-10)

My Pick: Alabama

Going into the year, there was some excitement radiating from Tuscaloosa as Nate Oats brought in a top three recruiting class, but few expected the Crimson Tide to ascend to these heights. Freshman F Brandon Miller (19.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG) took home countless awards and is regarded as one of the best players in the country. Newcomers have been the key for Alabama, with Ohio transfer G Mark Sears averaging 13.3 PPG and freshman F Noah Clowney posting a statline of 10.0 PPG and 8.2 RPG. For all of the new faces in Coleman Coliseum, senior G Jahvon Quinerly (7.8 PPG) is the glue of the team and provides electricity off of the bench. When Quinerly is in a rhythm, he’s unstoppable as he drives down the lane. Alabama loves to chuck threes, which sometimes results in blowouts, but also occasionally bites them in the rear end. What makes Alabama special, though, is how they’re able to battle through adversity and grit out wins when they struggle to shoot (see: Auburn at Alabama). One of the few programs that rivaled Alabama’s 2022 recruiting success was Arkansas, a team with lofty preseason expectations, but disappointing results. The Razorbacks seem to be in position to make the NCAA Tournament, but their sub-.500 record in conference play isn’t very flattering. Of note, many of their conference games were played without prolific freshman G Nick Smith Jr. (13.8 PPG), who has been limited to a dozen games due to injuries. Since transferring from Wichita State, G Ricky Council IV (16.5 PPG) has emerged as a top scoring option for Eric Musselman, as has freshman G/F Anthony Black (12.8 PPG, 4.2 APG). Arkansas has the DNA to win the SEC Tournament and make a run in March Madness, but they simply need to limit turnovers and establish their identity on offense. If they can get contributions from their big men, mainly Makhi Mitchell (6.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG), then Arkansas should feel good about their chances of making a run. With that being said, roll tide roll. Alabama seems poised to start clicking from beyond the arc and propel their way to securing a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

It’s time for madness in the month of March. The road to the greatest sports spectacle in the world begins now.

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