Early MLB Observations: American League

It’s cliche, but baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Last year, I wrote an article about MLB takeaways in April, which is cool, but pretty useless. This year, I held out until the back end of May! Starting off with the American League, I picked one player or storyline that has been notable for each team to start this season.

*Some stats are as of a few days ago, but the analysis expressed remains relevant

https://www.mlb.com/glossary

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays- 1B/3B Yandy Díaz

Hello, Yandy Díaz! There are many players to thank for Tampa Bay’s scorching hot start to the season, but Díaz should be at the forefront of that conversation. Díaz has been a steady and solid bat for the Rays since he was acquired in 2019. His game has always been predicated on high contact and walk rates, not power. His career SLG% is .425 and he’s only hit 49 home runs in the big leagues, but in 2023, his SLG% is nearing .600 at .593 and he’s already hit double digit home runs. His slashline of .321/.429/.593/1.021 with a 188 wRC+ and 2.0 fWAR has made Díaz one of, if not the best, player in MLB so far in 2023.

Baltimore Orioles- SS Jorge Mateo

Going into this season, I thought the Orioles could be a scrappy and sneaky good team, but after 40 games, they’ve just been plain good. Top prospect Gunnar Henderson has struggled to acclimate to big league pitching, but a former top prospect is blossoming next to Henderson. Once regarded as a top 30 prospect in all of baseball, Jorge Mateo has struggled mightily at the dish in the big leagues. Through 2022, his top wRC+ in a season was a measly 83. His elite speed made him a minor asset, but still an incredibly flawed player. So far in 2023, Mateo has improved in, quite literally, every aspect of hitting. He’s hitting .264/.308/.482/.790 with a 115 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR. The walk rate is yucky, but Mateo’s overall body of work is awesome for a player hitting towards the bottom of the lineup. With his improvement at the plate, coupled with some of the new MLB rules, Mateo already has 12 SBs, which is good for 5th in baseball. Jorge Mateo isn’t an MVP caliber player, but he’s been a key piece of Baltimore’s hot start.

Toronto Blue Jays- 3B Matt Chapman

The Toronto Blue Jays have had a fascinating start to the season. OF George Springer and RHP Alek Manoah have started off ice cold, but 3B Matt Chapman has been ridiculously good, posting marks at .317/.404/.538/.942 with a 162 wRC+ and 1.9 fWAR. Chapman has always been praised for his tremendous defense at the hot corner, but his offensive production has rarely been spectacular. Chapman has always possessed plus power, but this year he is roping the ball at a historic rate, ranking in the 100th percentile for hard hit rate and in the 99th percentile for expected slugging. 1B/DH Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is known as the pure masher in the lineup (career .506 SLG%), but if Matt Chapman can maintain close to his current slugging numbers throughout the 2023 season, the corner infielders for the Blue Jays may be able to supply enough power to provide for every household in Canada.

New York Yankees- LHP Nestor Cortes

The offensive challenges for the New York Yankees have been well documented, but there are also some red flags in the rotation. Yes, RHP Luis Severino and LHP Carlos Rodon have been plagued by injuries, but LHP Nestor Cortes was expected to be a reliable option, which he has not been to start the season. Cortes recorded back-to-back seasons with a sub 3.00 ERA in 2021 and 2022, but his current ERA for 2023 is at 5.53. Cortes is a finesse-over-power kind of pitcher, but that model doesn’t work well when his secondary pitches are getting crushed by opposing hitters. Simply put, Cortes just isn’t managing contact well and is surrendering too many barrels. His peripherals (3.90 xERA/4.60 FIP/5.14 xFIP) suggest that he’s been a bit unlucky, but the Yankees need him to right the ship and return to his front-line form.

Boston Red Sox- Starting Pitching

I’d like to begin this section with a shoutout to OF Masataka Yoshida, who has exceeded my expectations and currently holds a 137 wRC+. While Yoshida has been great, the Red Sox rotation has been, uh, awful. They haven’t been Oakland A’s bad (7.47 ERA), but the Red Sox rotation ranks 28th in baseball with an ERA of 5.79, accompanied by a 5.06 FIP. LHP Chris Sale was once one of MLB’s most dominant hurlers in the game, but he is clearly past his prime. The veterans, RHPs Nick Pivetta and Corey Kluber, have ERAs north of 6.00, while the youngsters, RHPs Brayan Bello and Tanner Houck hover just above a 5.00 ERA. LHP James Paxton had an encouraging first outing, but it remains to be seen if that can be repeated. The offense has been above average, but without improvement on the pitching side, Boston may be heading towards a last place finish in the AL East.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins- OF Joey Gallo

The Twins are off to a solid start and have performed well in every facet. RHPs Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez have formed a formidable trio at the top of the Minnesota rotation, but that isn’t necessarily surprising or unexpected. With OF Joey Gallo, you can expect the unexpected! I wrote about Gallo in one of my preseason articles and thought he’d bounce back, but I didn’t expect his power numbers to skyrocket so quickly. In 31 games, Gallo is hitting .209/.327/.582/.909 with a 147 wRC+ and an fWAR of 0.8, which already surpasses his total from 2022. He still doesn’t hit for average and remains a strikeout machine, but he’s hitting the ball hard on a more consistent basis and churning out XBHs. Gallo’s three true outcome approach means that he’ll certainly encounter extended slumps, but with that comes runs of insanity. Even if his stats fall off a bit, it seems likely that the Twins got a steal with Joey Gallo.

Cleveland Guardians- 2B Andrés Giménez

After a breakout 2022 and a hefty extension worth over $100m, 2B Andrés Giménez has regressed drastically to begin the season. His underlying numbers from 2022, including a .353 BABIP, suggest that Giménez had overperformed, but his 2023 metrics are startling. Giménez ranks in the 1st percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit rate, while only barrelling and (expected) slugging in the 5th percentile. Thus far, his overall slashline is .234/.305/.365/.670 with an 86 wRC+. His speed remains elite and he’s an above-average defender, but his offensive production is abysmal. Should this be the production Giménez provides moving forward, the Guardians will regret having to pay him until 2030.

Detroit Tigers- LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

I wouldn’t go as far to say that they’ve been good, but the Detroit Tigers have been competitive. As a whole, the Tigers rotation hasn’t been very good, but LHP Eduardo Rodriguez has had a massive resurgence. Rodriguez had a wacky 2022 season, posting a 4.05 ERA/4.20 xERA/4.43 FIP in only 91 IP. Those numbers aren’t bad, but they aren’t good enough for a player making $15.4m per year. As a member of the Red Sox, Rodriguez struck batters out at a very high rate, but that wasn’t apparent in 2022. So far, his strikeout numbers in 2023 aren’t eye-popping, but they are improved from last season. His strikeout rate feels less important when he’s inducing more soft contact than he ever has in his career. Rodriguez’s improvements have culminated in a 1.57 ERA/2.59 xERA/3.07 FIP in 51.2 IP. I wouldn’t count on him to maintain an ERA below 2.00, but Eduardo Rodriguez may finally be tapping into his full potential.

Chicago White Sox- Starting Pitching

Over the last few years, the fall off of the Chicago White Sox has been a sight to see. Going into 2023, Chicago felt like they’d be able to lean on their starting pitching to remain competitive. Thus far, the results have been awful. RHP Lucas Giolito has looked decent with a 3.86 ERA, but 2022 AL Cy Young candidate Dylan Cease has been very disappointing with a 4.86 ERA. RHP Lance Lynn is healthy this season, but his 7.51 ERA has been more harmful than helpful, which can also be said about RHPs Michael Kopech (5.74 ERA) and Mike Clevinger (4.79 ERA). As a whole, the rotation ranks 27th in MLB with a cumulative 5.29 ERA. Diving deeper, White Sox starters are sporting a 3.79 BB/9, good for 27th in baseball, and 1.66 HR/9, ranking 26th. This group has no issue throwing hard and striking batters out, but it’s virtually worthless if they continue to surrender so many walks and homers.

Kansas City Royals- LHP Aroldis Chapman

The Royals have been awful, just absolutely and hilariously awful. They don’t exactly have a wealth of assets to deal, but LHP Aroldis Chapman should fetch a solid return. His 3.68 ERA doesn’t appear to be incredible, but he has a 2.68 xERA, 1.59 FIP, and his numbers are slightly skewed due to one bad outing. Relievers are very volatile and Chapman has been trending downwards over the last few years, which makes it a bit tough to project his future output. However, he’s regained his famous velocity, averaging 99.8 MPH and ranking in the 100th percentile in fastball velocity. With his fireballing powers back, I feel much more confident in Chapman succeeding moving forward. He still walks more batters than you’d like, but even that mark (4.30 BB/9) is much improved from his walk rate around 6.50 across the previous two seasons. He’d only be a rental, but his salary is cheap and his upside is high enough for a contender to pay a decent price to acquire Chapman’s services.

AL West

Texas Rangers- C Jonah Heim

Since arriving in Texas, Jonah Heim has been a great defender behind the dish with a subpar, but acceptable, bat. In 2022, he started 127 games and compiled a 99 wRC+ with 8 DRS and a 98th percentile rank in framing, which all accumulated into a 2.8 fWAR. In today’s game, that’s a perfectly solid statline for a catcher, but Heim has cranked it up to another level in 2023. Through 35 games, he’s slashing .315/.371/.528/.899 with a 148 wRC+ and 1.9 fWAR. Heim has always had the capacity to hit the ball hard, but this season he is doing so with more consistency. Some regression at the plate seems inevitable, but Jonah Heim is trending towards the top ten of catchers in baseball.

Houston Astros- 1B José Abreu

The defending champs have started the season a bit slow, but there’s little reason to doubt the Astros making a deep playoff run. The biggest cause for concern in Houston is the atrocious debut of 1B José Abreu. Abreu signed with the Astros this offseason after a fantastic run with the Chicago White Sox, as he was an above average hitter, often by a significant margin, each season on the southside. It was expected that Abreu would be a stable and consistent cog in the middle of Houston’s vaunted lineup, but that has not come to fruition. So far, Abreu is batting .223/.274/.268/.542 with a 51 wRC+ and -0.9 fWAR. Among qualified players, there’s a strong argument to be made that he’s been the worst position player in baseball to begin 2023. There isn’t really one thing you can point to for Abreu’s struggles, as he’s fallen off in every offensive category. I’d anticipate that Abreu is able to improve as the season rolls along, but I have my doubts about the Astros getting a good return on investment.

Los Angeles Angels- LHP Tyler Anderson

The Los Angeles Angels always have fun storylines going on. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are cool, but I’m going to go in a different direction. Prior to 2022, LHP Tyler Anderson was a fairly average pitcher that was able to provide bulk innings for his team. Upon joining the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2022, Anderson transcended into one of the game’s best pitchers, recording a 2.57 ERA/3.10 xERA/3.31 FIP across 178.2 IP. The Dodgers are often lauded for their ability to resurrect the careers of mediocre players, with Anderson being a recent example. After signing as a free agent with the Angels, Anderson has been quite disappointing. Through 37.2 IP, Anderson has a 5.26 ERA/5.46 xERA/5.80 FIP. There are a few primary reasons for his trouble, all stemming from his fastball. Anderson has always been a soft tosser that seldom strikes out batters, but he thrived with the Dodgers because he was able to manage the quality of contact from opposing hitters, but he hasn’t been able to do that with the Angels. To make matters worse, he has a 4.54 BB/9 after limiting batters to 1.71 BB/9 in 2022. If walks continue to be an issue, Tyler Anderson (and the Angels) will be in major trouble.

Seattle Mariners- OF Jarred Kelenic

It has been a whirlwind of a few years for OF Jarred Kelenic. He was once the headliner in an Edwin Diaz trade, emerged as the prized prospect in all of baseball, then fell flat in the majors. His 2021 season was bad (74 wRC+ in 91 games), then his 2022 was even worse (55 wRC+ in 54 games). He occasionally hit the ball hard, but his plate approach was poor and wasn’t consistently making quality contact. Many, including myself, wrote Kelenic off and declared him as a bust. It appears we wrote off Kelenic, but he didn’t write back! In 2023, he’s slashing .283/.331/.538 with a 140 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR. He still strikes out a ton and doesn’t walk enough, but he’s now punishing the ball with consistency. He’s always had the power upside, but he finally tapped into it at the major league level.

Oakland Athletics- OF/DH Brent Rooker

I would like to officially declare 2023 as the year of Brent Rooker (cc: Noah Mgrublian). Heading into this season, Rooker had established himself as an elite player… in AAA. His tantalizing power was evident on the farm, but vanished as he got more consistent playing time in MLB. In 2021, as a Minnesota Twin, Rooker slashed .201/.291/.397/.688 with a 91 wRC+ and a -0.4 fWAR. Splitting time between Kansas City and San Diego, Rooker hit .125/.222/.156/.378 with a measly 15 wRC+ and a -0.4 fWAR in only 16 games in 2022. Rooker, being too good for AAA, but not good enough for MLB, was claimed by the Oakland Athletics. Talk about a perfect fit! Expectations were non-existent for Rooker, he figured to just be another filler player for a pitiful A’s team. Thus far, that has been far from the case. He currently is hitting .284/.391/.567/.958 with a 167 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in 2023. Sure, he may cool down from being 67% above average, but his batted ball profile suggests that this isn’t a pure fluke. He’s been among the best players in baseball in terms of hitting the ball hard, barrelling the ball, and slugging. He strikes out and whiffs pretty often, but he makes up for it with a great 13.6 BB%. One may assume that the A’s will sell high on Rooker, given that they are a cheap and inept organization, but he has team control until 2028. Brent Rooker could command a big trade package, however he could also remain with Oakland (Las Vegas?) for the indefinite future. The year of Brent Rooker.

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