FA Analysis: The Curious Case of George Springer (and why he deserves the money)

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George Springer was born on September 19, 1989 in New Briton, Connecticut. Growing up in a state that isn’t known for baseball, Springer’s greatness radiated and stood out. After being drafted in the 48th round out of high school, George would be selected 11th overall in the 2011 draft to the Houston Astros after attending the University of Connecticut. Fast forward to January 2021, and Springer will now be calling the great white north his new home and is $150m richer. How did he get here? Is he worth the money?

Following a cup of tea in the big leagues in 2014, Springer began to show off his potential in 2015. It was no incredible season, but George slashed .276/.367/.459 with 16 HRs/16 SBs, as well as a 133 wRC+ and a 3.9 WAR. Come 2016, Springer posted similar numbers, slashing .261/.359/.457 with a 126 wRC+ and 5 WAR, but improved his power numbers in his first full season, swatting 29 HRs and 29 2Bs. Springer had been solid, but unspectacular at this point.

Next, there is the big breakout for the former highly-touted outfielder. In 2017, Springer put up a .283/.367/.522 with an .889 OPS, 140 wRC+, and 4.5 WAR. He continued to hit for power, raising his ISO to .239 by hitting 34 HRs and 29 2Bs. He was recognized with his 1st All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger award, and a 13th place finish in the AL MVP. A great season, 2017 was so special because of Springer’s postseason heroics.

After a 101 win regular season, the Astros matched up with the Boston Red Sox. The ‘Stros would wind up winning the ALDS in 4 games behind a 7-17 (H to AB), 3 XBH, and 1.180 OPS from good ole George Springer. The Astros would meet the New York Yankees in the ALCS and would win the series in 7 games, but Springer went a measly 3-26 with 0 XBHs. With a sour taste in his mouth, Springer, with Randy Arozarena’s recent performance in mind, put up possibly the greatest postseason series by a hitter ever.

In a Game 1 loss, Springer went hitless in 4 ABs. Down 1-0 on the road in Los Angeles, Springer went 3-5 with a clutch 11th inning 2R HR to lift the Astros to a 7-6 victory. In Games 3 and 4, George combined for 2 hits in 8 ABs with a 2B and HR. So how the heck was this one of the greatest series performances of all time? Well in Game 5, series knotted at 2 a piece, Springer went 2-3 with 3 BBs and a big HR. Behind 8-7 entering the bottom of the 7th, George took the first pitch from Brandon Morrow and sent it into the left field bleachers, starting a 4 run inning that would help propel the Astros to a 13-12 win (via an Alex Bregman walkout single versus Kenley “Washed” Jansen). With a chance to win it all in Game 6, Springer was the only source of offense for H-Town, going 2-3 with a IBB and a solo HR, the only run scored in a 3-1 loss. Tied at 3, the World Series would come down to a winner-take-all Game 7 at Chavez Ravine.

Worthy of it's own paragraph, George Springer had an unforgettable Game 7. He’d begin the game with a 2B off of new Padre Yu Darvish as the Astros tacked 2 early runs on the Dodgers. In his second AB in the 2nd with 2 outs, Springer annihilated a 3-2 astball into left center Dodger Stadium and knocked Yu Darvish out of the game. Springer would lineout twice and strike out in his final 3 ABs, but the damage was done and he left his mark. On a game by game basis, it seems like Springer had a good performance, as evaluating game-by-game results in baseball is very different than football or basketball. Going 2 for 5 doesn’t sound sexy, but the cumulative numbers are eye-popping. Through all 7 games, a .379/.471/1.000 clip with a 1.471 OPS, 5 HRs (ties WS record), 7 RBIs, and a WS record 29 Total Bases led to Springer being named the 2017 World Series Most Valuable Player. Following the devastating Hurricane Harvey, the Houston Astros were World Champs on the back of their budding star CF.

The 2017 season was quite the year for Springer and ‘Stros, but a massive caveat would be revealed in the years to come. During their 2017 season, the Astros used cameras to install a sign-stealing operation, a clear act of cheating. There are charts that document the alleged trash can banging and sign stealing, but the exact scheme will never be fully navigated down to the finest detail. The chart, created by Tony Adams, alleges that Springer received a trash can bang (a.k.a signaling of the pitch to come) 199 times out of 933 opportunities. Considering that the trash can banging, which occurred in only 58 home games, had major affects on Springer’s continued breakout is foolish. It’s fair to say that the sign-stealing was beneficial for each player, Springer not withstanding, but 199 pitches are marginal in the grand scheme of 140 games. To continue, there is little evidence to show that sign-stealing was in use in the postseason, quieting the narrative that Springer’s heroics were a result of cheating. The Astros cheating scandal was absolutely awful and by no means do I condone their actions, but it did not define George Springer’s season.

Fair or not, the cheating scandal has skewed the majority's perception of Astros players stats from 2017 on, as the scandal didn’t break until 2019 and fans were skeptical of the timeline of the Astros trash-can banging. In 2018, Springer wasn’t quite as phenomenal as he was in 2017, but still slashed .265/.346/.434 with a .780 OPS, 118 wRC+, 2.9 WAR, and 22 HRs. A bit of a step back at face value for George, but nonetheless a respectable season. Diving deeper, Springer was mediocre in the first half of 2018 (.249/.333/.415 & 110 wRC+) before heating it up after the All-Star Game, which he somehow made. Following the Midsummer Classic, Springer hit .301/.374/.476 with a 137 wRC+. In conclusion, Springer wasn’t a superstar in 2018, but his season totals don’t tell the whole story.

Entering his age 28 season, George hit like one of the very best players in all of baseball. Prior to the All-Star break, Springer hit .303/.384/.589 with a 155 wRC+ and 18 HRs. Looking like an MVP candidate, Springer would miss some time with an injury, which would ultimately sink his MVP candidacy. In the end, he hit .292/.383/.591 with a .974 OPS, 156 wRC+, 6.5 WAR, and 39 HRs (leading to a whopping .299 ISO). Despite missing 22 games, Springer still finished 7th in AL MVP voting and near the top 10 in many statistical categories. Superstar? I think so.

Then there is this past season, the odd COVID-shortened season. In a considerably down year for the Astros, the first season after the sign-stealing scandal came out. With other stars like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa having uncharacteristic seasons, Springer was the best of the bunch. He hit .265/.359/.540 in the regular season with a .899 OPS, 146 wRC+, 1.9 WAR (shortened season), and 14 HRs. He wasn’t 2017-esque in the 2020 postseason, but he had a strong ALDS back at Dodger Stadium, hitting 7 of 18 with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs. After an 0-4 showing in Game 7 of the ALCS vs the Tampa Bay Rays, the Astros were eliminated and George was going to hit the open market.

His market moved slow, but George Springer is now set to a sign a 6 year contract worth $150m (25 AAV). This whole article has led up to the question, is he worth it? My answer is a definitive yes, I think the Blue Jays are getting a helluva player on a very fair deal. The sign-stealing saga should not at all cloud judgment on Springer; he’s a career .270/.361/.491 hitter with a 134 wRC+ who averages about 50 XBHs per year. He’s not a premier defender and may shift to the corners as his contract moves, but he is by no means a defensive liability. A top 3 CF, top 10 OF, a top 25 player in the MLB, I don’t care that he’ll be on the wrong side of 30, Springer is a game changer for a young Jays team. His postseason pedigree and top of the lineup presence boost the Jays as contenders for 2021 and more so for the future to come. With AAVs (average annual value) creeping up to and beyond 30, the Blue Jays have penciled in their #8 spot at only 25.

George Springer is undoubtedly one of the most intriguing players in all of the MLB. From playing in the shadow of his teammates like Jose Altuve, to delivering World Series moments that baseball fans will forever remember (and Dodgers fans will have nightmares over), to emerging as a lethal hitter and MVP candidate in 2019, to his play in 2020 following the leak of the Astros sign-stealing scandal, it all led up to this prolonged free agency. He has settled in Toronto, but the story of George Springer is far from complete.

The Connecticut born.

The first round pedigree.

The 3x All-Star.

The less-publicized Astro superstar.

The World Series Hero.

The curious case of George Springer.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Do you like George Springer? Is he worth the pay? How will the Toronto Blue Jays do with him in 2021? Let me know in the comments below!

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