Midwest Region Bracket Breakdown

This is March. In the spirit of March Madness, I’ve given a report on every team in the midwest region.

I'd like to give a huge thank you to my friends, Joey Bonadonna and Noah Mgrublian, for their help with this article. Without them, it may not have been ready until the Final Four

1 Houston

Record: 31-3 overall, 17-1 in conference, 7-2 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 12th in adjusted offense, 4th in adjusted defense, 3rd in EFG% defense, 343rd in tempo

Notable Stats: G Marcus Sasser (17.1 PPG, 3.2 APG, 1.7 SPG), F Jarace Walker (11.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.0 BPG), G Jamal Shead (10.3 PPG, 5.4 APG, 1.8 SPG)

Breakdown: Houston is certainly one of the favorites to win the tournament despite losing to Memphis in the AAC Championship on Selection Sunday. Their rotation is filled with high-impact defenders and are able to break you down with their slow but efficient offense. The big question, however, will be the health of senior guard and leading scorer Marcus Sasser, who suffered a groin injury in the conference tournament. While his status is still uncertain, he has been practicing with the team. If he is available, this team should be able to have the firepower to go to the Final Four in their hometown. If not, watch for highly-touted freshman F Jarace Walker to help lead the charge in Sasser’s absence. If neither are up to the task, the Cougars could fail to meet their expectations for what has been an otherwise fantastic season.

2 Texas

Record: 26-8 overall, 12-6 in conference, 14-8 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 19th in adjusted offense, 10th in adjusted defense, 17th forced turnover rate, 103rd in tempo

Notable Stats: G Marcus Carr (15.9 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.8 SPG), G Sir’Jabari Rice (12.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.1 APG), F Timmy Allen (10.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.5 APG)

Breakdown: Texas emerged on top out of the wild Big 12 Tournament by taking down favorite Kansas in the championship. Few Horns fans thought this might be enough to put them on the one line, but alas, they will have to move forward as a two-seed. G Marcus Carr has been nothing but sensational for the Longhorns since transferring in from Minnesota and that hasn’t changed this season. His facilitation on offense, as well as his ability to grab steals has led him to be one of the premier guards in the country over his college career. Another transfer that will have to take a step up from the regular season is former Iowa State guard Tyrese Hunter. He has been one of the more inefficient players in the Texas lineup this season, but with a fantastic March on record in last year’s Sweet Sixteen run for the Cyclones, he could be a major factor for Texas if they want to go on a long run.

3 Xavier

Record: 25-9 overall, 15-5 in conference, 9-6 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 8th in adjusted offense, 81st in adjusted defense, 3rd in 3P%, 39th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Souley Boum (16.6 PPG, 4.4 APG, 42.5 3FG%), G Colby Jones (15.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.4 APG), F Jack Nunge (14.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 42.4 3FG%)

Breakdown: The Xavier Musketeers have enjoyed a return to glory in the first season of the second stint of Sean Miller, making their first trip to the big dance since 2018. Their electric offense has helped lead them back behind All-Big East performances from the backcourt of sixth-year senior transfer G Souley Boum and junior G Colby Jones. One big problem for this Xavier team is their inconsistency on offense, as well as their perimeter defense, which was evident in their Big East Championship loss to Marquette. The Musketeers will also miss senior forward Zach Freemantle (15.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG), who suffered a setback in rehabbing his foot injury that he suffered in the middle of the season. This team certainly has the guys to make for a deep run, but if they get off to a cold start, Xavier could be an early exit from the tournament.

4 Indiana

Record: 22-11 overall, 12-8 in conference, 6-9 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 34th in adjusted offense, 47th in adjusted defense, 21st in two-point defense, 140th in tempo

Notable Stats: F Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 2.7 BPG), G Jalen Hood-Schifino (13.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.2 APG), F Race Thompson (7.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG)

Breakdown: The Hoosiers came into the season as favorites to win the Big Ten, but injuries and a tough non-conference schedule plagued them at the beginning of the year. However, they have been on a good run lately, going 12-5 down the stretch, finishing 3rd in the Big Ten. Their tandem of Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino is as good as any in the country, but they lack a true third scorer on the roster. Mike Woodson is looking to bring this team back to the championship-level greatness the program experienced back in the 1980s, but the Hoosiers will only go as far as TJD and JHS can take them.

5 Miami

Record: 25-7 overall, 15-5 in conference, 5-5 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 11th in adjusted offense, 137th in adjusted defense, 18th in EFG%, 107th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Isaiah Wong (16.2 PPG, 3.4 APG, 37.8 3P%), G Jordan Miller (15.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.7 APG), F Norchad Omier (13.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG)

Breakdown: After a nice run in last year’s tournament, Miami is back and ready to shake up the college basketball world. They’re offense runs through their trio of guards, Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, and Nijel Pack (13.6 PPG). I’m not sure there’s a group of guards that I’d prefer over Miami’s stable of playmakers. The Hurricanes score at a frenetic pace, averaging 79.7 PPG (1st in ACC) and ranking 11th in adjusted offense. Defense isn’t exactly Miami’s bread and butter, which can leave them vulnerable to certain upsets, but they can shoot any team out of the arena on any given night. High-profile teams such as Houston and Indiana may await the Hurricanes, but they are more than capable of beating any team in the country. The key for Miami is F Norchad Omier, who has been dealing with an ankle injury. If he’s a full go, Miami will be dangerous.

6 Iowa State

Record: 19-13 overall, 9-9 in conference, 10-11 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 89th in adjusted offense, 7th in adjusted defense, 2nd in forced turnover rate, 326th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Jaren Holmes (13.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.4 APG), G Gabe Kalscheur (12.9 PPG, 1.4 SPG, 36.4 3P%), C Osun Osunniyi (8.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG)

Breakdown: Iowa State lost some big contributors from last year’s team, but have been able to reload and return to the NCAA Tournament. I’ve been a St. Bonaventure fan over the last few years, and evidently TJ Otzelberger is too, as he reeled in G Jaren Holmes and C Osun Osunniyi from the transfer portal last offseason. Defensively, the Cyclones are good enough to win a National Championship; they’re the second best team in the country at forcing turnovers and rarely give up easy looks. The issue for Iowa State is their brutal turnover rate on offense and their mighty struggles at the free throw line. ISU doesn’t need to score 100 points, but they’ll struggle to win if they turn it over 20 times and can’t connect consistently from the charity stripe. Their path moving forward doesn’t look too treacherous, but Iowa State will be tested by Pittsburgh in the Round of 64.

7 Texas A&M

Record: 25-9 overall, 15-3 in conference, 7-6 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 23rd in adjusted offense, 30th in adjusted defense, 2nd in free throw rate, 233rd in tempo

Notable Stats: G Wade Taylor IV (16.5 PPG, 4.0 APG, 87.5 FT%), G Tyrece Radford (13.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG), F Henry Coleman III (9.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 53.2 FG%)

Breakdown: Texas A&M missed the NCAA Tournament by the skin of their teeth last season, but responded with an electric run this season. This Aggies roster is a beautiful symphony of veteran players with experience at multiple schools, namely G Tyrese Radford (Virginia Tech), F Henry Coleman III (Duke), and G Dexter Dennis (Wichita State, 9.2 PPG). Sophomore G Wade Taylov IV has nearly doubled his scoring production from his freshman year and can knock down threes at a nice clip. TAMU had an ugly start to the season in non-conference, but reeled off a 15-3 record in conference and nearly won the SEC regular season title. They can win in different ways, outlasting opponents in the 50s, but also prevailing in the 80s. The path to Houston for the Final Four won’t be easy, but I think the Texas A&M Aggies are capable of playing their way into the second weekend and beyond.

8 Iowa

Record: 19-13 overall, 11-9 in conference, 4-7 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 4th in adjusted offense, 173rd in adjusted defense, 8th in turnover rate, 57th in tempo

Notable Stats: F Kris Murray (20.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG), F Filip Rebraca (14.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 57.1 FG%), G Tony Perkins (12.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.5 SPG)

Breakdown: Iowa is a weird team. The adjusted offense statistic adores the Hawkeyes, but they don’t necessarily score in a spectacularly efficient manner. The key contributor to their top five offensive rating is likely (or certainly) their ability to avoid turnovers, limiting turnovers better than all but seven other teams in the country. F Kris Murray is a bona-fide stud and the alpha of the team, filling in beautifully for his departed brother Keegan. Senior F Filip Rebraca is a worthy competitor down low, as are Fs Patrick McCaffrey (10.0 PPG) and Payton Sandfort (10.0 PPG). The question marks come from the backcourt. G Tony Perkins has improved as a scorer each season in Iowa City, but they lack formidable true ball handlers beyond him. The Hawkeyes have had electric wins (Michigan State in OT), but also head scratching losses (swept by Nebraska). I like their chances of moving on to the Round of 32, but their inconsistencies have me hesitant to take them deep.

9 Auburn

Record: 20-12 overall, 10-8 in conference, 3-10 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 37th in adjusted offense, 27th in adjusted defense, 5th in 3-point defense, 162nd in tempo

Notable Stats: F Johni Broome (14.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG), G Wendell Green Jr (13.8 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.3 RPG), F Jaylin Williams (11.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.1 SPG)

Breakdown: Auburn may be one of the toughest teams in the field to evaluate. They rank in the top 40 for both adjusted offense and defense, thus they’re respectable on both sides of the floor, but they aren’t great, either. Morehead State transfer F Johni Broome is the most consistent player for Bruce Pearl, with F Jaylin Williams being a close second. The ultimate wild card for Auburn is G Wendell Green. He averages 13.8 points per game, but shoots 29.5% from deep. Some games, he can effectively take over and win games (24 points against Tennessee), but he can also falter and lose games (2-14 against Vanderbilt). I truly believe the winner of Iowa-Auburn will get humbled by Houston, but stay tuned.

10 Penn State

Record: 22-13 overall, 10-10 in conference, 7-7 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 15th in adjusted offense, 115th in adjusted defense, 6th in turnover rate, 313th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Jalen Pickett (17.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 6.7 APG), G Seth Lundy (14.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 40.6 3P%), G Andrew Funk (12.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 85.7 FT%)

Breakdown: Hot wouldn’t come close to describing how well Penn State is playing right now. The Nittany Lions are 5-1 in March, with the only loss coming at the hands of Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game. The 10 seed truly doesn’t do justice for what kind of team Penn State is at this point of the season. G Jalen Pickett is the NCAA version of Bat Man, while G Seth Lundy plays a perfect Robin. Penn State is able to win big games because they take care of the ball and are lethal from deep (38.5 3P%). Penn State is able to lose big games because they are 361st in free throw percentage and 362nd in forcing turnovers. With those numbers, they can’t afford Pickett or Lundy to have an off-night in March Madness if they want to advance. I feel for both Penn State and Texas A&M that they have to face each other in the first round, given how great they’ve been lately. Someone between the two of them have to win, though, and I think either team could go deep.

11 Pittsburgh

Record: 23-11 overall, 14-6 in conference, 4-4 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 32nd in adjusted offense, 162nd in adjusted defense, 50th in EFG%, 177th in tempo

Notable Stats: F Blake Hinson (15.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 38.7 3P%), G Jamarius Burton (15.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.4 APG), G Nelly Cummings (11.1 PPG, 4.8 APG, 87.8 FT%)

Breakdown: Pittsburgh just barely snuck into the field of 68 and probably should’ve lost to Mississippi State in the First Four, but they survived and advanced. If you value experience, you should definitely like Pitt. They have not one, not two, not three, not four, but FIVE fifth-year players. F Blake Hinson is the leading scorer, while Gs Jamarius Burton and Nelly Cummings are a dynamic duo in the backcourt. They looked iffy to conclude the regular season, but boast several strong wins from both conference and non-conference play. In order for the Panthers to advance, they must get off to a hot start on offense and buy in on defense down the stretch. Matched up with Iowa State, Pitt is more than capable of winning.

12 Drake

Record: 27-7 overall, 15-5 in conference, 1-1 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 69th in adjusted offense, 44th in adjusted defense, 3rd in defensive rebounding, 222nd in tempo

Notable Stats: G Tucker DeVries (19.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 38.7 3FG%), G Roman Penn (12.6 PPG, 5.4 APG, 4.6 RPG), G Garrett Sturtz (9.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 59.2 FG%)

13 Kent State

Record: 26-6 overall, 15-3 in conference, 0-3 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 118th in adjusted offense, 47th in adjusted defense, 20th in forced turnover rate, 144th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Sincere Carry (17.6 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.7 SPG), G Malique Jacobs (13.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.6 APG), F Miryne Thomas (10.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG)

Breakdown: The metrics may not indicate it, but Kent State is one of the most fun teams to watch in the country. That starts (and maybe ends?) with fifth-year G Sincere Carry, one of the best playmakers from the MAC and within the field of 68. He’s no sniper from deep, but can create shots for himself and hit tough jumpers. Don’t let his name fool you, there is no sincerity in the way that he dices up defenses. I like F Miryne Thomas a lot; he’s an athletic forward at 6’8” that can hit threes at an impressive rate. Truth be told, Kent State doesn’t have any incredibly notable shortcomings, rather it may just be tough to hang with a power six team like Indiana. Personally, I didn’t pick the Golden Flashes, but they certainly could pull off an upset.

14 Kennesaw State

Record: 23-8 overall, 15-3 in conference, 0-4 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 137th in adjusted offense, 109th in adjusted defense, 34th in 3-point shooting, 120th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Chris Youngblood (14.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 46.3 FG%), G Terrell Burden (13.5 PPG, 4.2 APG, 1.7 SPG), F Demond Robinson (11.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 54.0 FG%)

Breakdown: Kennesaw State is an incredibly intriguing double digit seed. They aren’t a household name, but they boast something I covet come March: strong three-point shooting. Lead G Chris Youngblood shoots above 40% from deep, while reinforcement Gs Brandon Stroud and Kasen Jennings can also stroke it. What has me timid about pulling the trigger on the Owls is their lack of a well-sized big man. If they can go unconscious from the three-point line, sign me up for Kennesaw State. That’s somewhat unlikely, though.

15 Colgate

Record: 26-8 overall, 17-1 in conference, 0-1 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 44th in adjusted offense, 206th in adjusted defense, 1st in three-point shooting, 81st in tempo

Notable Stats: G Tucker Richardson (13.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.8 APG), F Keegan Records (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 67.5 FG%), G Oliver Lynch-Daniels (12.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 50.3 3P%)

Breakdown: Colgate has been a frequent attendee of the big dance, but they don’t have much to show for it in terms of wins. My friend Joey Bonadonna is a huge fan of Colgate, which I initially dismissed because it’s Joey, but I see the Colgate vision. Colgate is the most efficient shooting team in the country. They’re 1st in three-point shooting percentage, 7th in two-point shooting percentage, which culminates into being 1st in overall efficient shooting. G Tucker Richardson and F Keegan Records are certified bucket-getters, but it’s really G Oliver Lynch-Daniels and F Ryan Moffatt (10.5 PPG) that drive their explosion from beyond the arc. The obvious knock on the Raiders is their defense (or lack thereof). I don’t expect the unit to become elite overnight, but they’ll need to get some stops to compete with Texas and possible future opponents. I don’t necessarily advise taking a 15 seed over a 2 seed, but don’t be shocked if Colgate causes chaos.

16 Northern Kentucky

Record: 20-12 overall, 14-6 in conference, 0-2 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 204th in adjusted offense, 122nd in adjusted defense, 14th in forced turnover rate, 359th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Marques Warrick (19.1 PPG, 1.3 SPG, 44.3 FG%), G Sam Vinson (11.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.4 SPG), G Trevon Faulkner (8.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 82.7 FT%)

Breakdown: I love Northern Kentucky, shoutout to Jake Altman. Unfortunately, their fate in March may be sealed with a brutal matchup against Houston. Win or lose, G Marques Warrick is worth the watch, with a plethora of moves at the bucket and a sweet shot from beyond the arc. The biggest issue for the Norse is their defense and rebounding; they rank 320th in three-point defense and 333rd in defensive rebounding. F Chris Brandon leads the team with 9.8 rebounds per game, but few others contribute. If Houston can consistently get second chance looks, it’s over for NKU. I’m rooting for Northern Kentucky this year, and Marques Warrick is only a junior (run it back next year?), but I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on the Norse.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you think will emerge from this region? Will an underdog make a deep run? Let me know in the comments below!

Don't forget to follow our Instagram, Twitter, and check out the podcast!