Mountain West MBB Conference Tournament Predictions

March! March is here and the whole sports world turns its attention to college basketball. Before March Madness, conference tournaments make or break bubble teams, determine national seeding, and occasionally birth underdogs known as "bid stealers." In this article, I break down the Mountain West tournament, featuring the defending champs in San Diego State, as well as tournament hopefuls such as Wyoming..

First Round (3/9)

9 New Mexico over 8 Nevada

7 Utah State over 10 Air Force

6 Fresno State over 11 San José State

Analysis: In their lone regular season matchup, Nevada defeated New Mexico by nine. Each team has an impressive backcourt, with Nevada boasting Grant Sherfield (18.5 PPG) and Desmond Cambridge Jr. (16.3 PPG), while New Mexico has Jamal Mashburn Jr. (18.3 PPG) and Jaelen House (16.9 PPG). Neither team is great from three, but New Mexico has the slight advantage, so I'll roll with the Lobos. Next, Air Force has a putrid offense, averaging under 60 PPG. Utah State has been a bit disappointing this season, but they are competent both offensively and defensively, which makes me lean to the Aggies. For the last game of the first round, San José state is a really bad basketball team, checking in at #292 on KenPom. Fresno State is a very mediocre team, but they should easily defeat the Spartans of San José State.

Quarterfinals (3/10)

1 Boise State over 9 New Mexico

4 Wyoming over 5 UNLV

2 Colorado State over 7 Utah State

3 San Diego State over 6 Fresno State

Analysis: New Mexico is one of the better scoring teams in the Mountain West, but Boise State is one of the best defensive teams on a national rank. The Broncos beat the Lobos by eight in their regular season matchup behind a great performance from G Marcus Shaver Jr. (18 points). Boise doesn't score a ton, but they should be able to score enough to defeat New Mexico. Wyoming and UNLV is a very intriguing matchup, especially following UNLV's victory over Wyoming last week. Cowboys F Graham Ike is one of the best players in the conference, averaging 19.9 PPG and 9.6 RPG. Wyoming also has another great scorer in G Hunter Maldonado, who scores 18.7 PPG. Speaking of great scorers, UNLV G Bryce Hamilton ranks top ten in the nation with 21.8 PPG. This game should be phenomenal, and ultimately, I like Jeff Linder's Cowboys to pull it out. Utah State can score, but not at the rate that Colorado State can. Junior G David Roddy, recently named the Mountain West Player of the Year, has eclipsed 20 points in 13 games this season. Colorado State won both regular season matchups and I expect them to win the third one as well. Last week, Fresno State took San Diego State to 2OT, but I don't see this rematch being as close. SDSU is notorious for showing up in the postseason and they still have members of the 2019-2020 squad that was poised to be a top seed. Cal transfer G Matt Bradley has been the heart and soul of this Aztecs team, averaging 17.8 PPG. Fresno State is a mediocre offensive team, which paired with SDSU's elite defense, could doom the Bulldogs. Give me SDSU by double digits.

Semifinals (3/11)

4 Wyoming over 1 Boise State

2 Colorado State over 3 San Diego State

Analysis: Boise State and Wyoming split the season series with two close games. Boise is built on defense, while Wyoming wins games largely due to their great scorers. The big question is if the Broncos can guard Graham Ike, who scored over 50 points combined in their regular season games. Time will tell, but my guess is Ike takes the game over and sends his team to the title game. San Diego state smoked Colorado State in their matchup right after New Year's, but they avenged the loss with a narrow 58-57 victory. SDSU has an elite defense, though it's offense isn't anything special. CSU may not get up to their 75.0 PPG average, but I think they can make enough shots down the stretch to pull out a victory.

Championship (3/12)

2 Colorado State over 4 Wyoming

Analysis: Advancing to the championship game likely puts Wyoming in position to make March Madness, but securing an automatic bid would be sweet for Jeff Linder's squad. Both regular season games between these teams were great; Wyoming defeated CSU in OT in Laramie, while CSU won 61-55 in Fort Collins. Graham Ike will be challenging to guard for an undersized Rams team, however it's not impossible (Ike shot 3-13 in Fort Collins). I've gone back and forth on the winner of this game, but when push comes to shove, I'm picking Colorado State because they have the conference's top player, David Roddy.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Can Wyoming get off the bubble? Will the Aztecs defend their title? Who do you have winning it all? Let me know in the comments down below!

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Note: Thank you to Action Network for the graphic provided at the top of the article