My MLB Award Picks

Last week, the winners of MLB awards such as Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP were announced for each league. The winners are chosen by the BBWAA (Baseball Writers’ Association of American), not me. BUT… if they were chosen by me, below is how I would’ve voted for MLB’s most coveted awards.

National League

Rookie of the Year

Winner: CF Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves

Runner Up: RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Actual Winner: CF Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves

The Stats

Michael Harris II- .297/.339/.514/.853 (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) w/ 136 wRC+, .367 wOBA, 19 HRs, 4.8 fWAR in 114 G

Spencer Strider- 2.67 ERA, 2.39 xERA, 1.83 FIP, 2.30 xFIP, 13.81 K/9, 4.9 fWAR in 131.2 IP

The Story

If you predicted that two Atlanta Braves, these two in particular, would be atop the leaderboard of NL rookies, congrats on being a total liar! Last year, Harris was playing in High-A and skipped AAA en route to the big leagues. Strider had a cup of tea with the MLB team in 2021 (2.1 IP), but spent time in all of A, High-A, AA, and AAA. He spent most of his time (63 IP) in AA, where he had an unimpressive 4.71 ERA. Now, these two have become cornerstones of the Braves franchise and each were rewarded with early extensions. Neither fared well in the postseason, but the sample size was minute. Each of their overall statistics are incredibly impressive, not just for rookies. For context, Strider led all pitchers with 130+ IP in FIP by a sizable margin and ranked 16th in ERA. On the other hand, Harris is tied for 26th in both wRC+ and fWAR. When considering their numbers relative to the rest of the league, Strider looks more impressive than Harris. With that being said, I lean towards Harris for several reasons. Generally, the learning curve for young players tends to be steeper for position players than pitchers (see: Spencer Torkelson, Jarred Kelenic), which makes Harris’s consistency and success incredibly rare. Additionally, Strider’s numbers are fantastic and 131.2 IP isn’t a small sample size, but he only made 20 starts (11 bullpen appearances). Harris wasn’t a 162 game/full season player either, but he comes much closer to qualifying (based on PA) than Strider does (based on IP). Ultimately, in such a tight race, I would default to the rhetoric that a position player holds more value than a pitcher, especially when you consider the volume in which they play. Strider technically leads Harris in fWAR, but that’s not the case with bWAR (5.3 for Harris, 3.7 for Strider) and WAR isn’t a perfect stat or the be-all-end-all. In conclusion, I can confidently say that an Atlanta Brave will win this award (sorry Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Joey Meneses, and others). My pick is Michael Harris II, but Spencer Strider is equally as deserving.

Cy Young

Winner: RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Runner Up: LHP Julio Urías, Los Angeles Dodgers

Actual Winner: RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

The Stats

Sandy Alcantara- 2.28 ERA, 2.92 xERA, 2.99 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, 8.15 K/9, 5.7 fWAR in 228.2 IP

Julio Urías- 2.16 ERA, 2.81 xERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.81 xFIP, 8.54 K/9, 3.2 fWAR in 175.0 IP

The Story

There isn’t too much of a story to this race. Julio Urías had a fantastic season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but this award has belonged to Sandy Alcantara since about July. Urías has a slight advantage in ERA number over Alcantara, but Alcantara leads him in about every other important category, namely FIP by a wide margin. The calculated stats aren’t what make this a runaway race for Alcantara, however. The Cy Young will go to the Miami Marlins ace because of his dazzling performances coupled with his monstrous workload. Over 32 starts, a fairly standard number for a healthy and established pitcher over a season, Alcantara threw a league-leading 228.2 IP. For context, that means that Alcantara AVERAGED about 7 IP per start this year, which is a total anomaly in today’s game. Second place in the innings race (Aaron Nola) is 23.2 IP behind, despite making the same number of starts! The last pitcher to exceed Alcantara’s 2022 total was David Price in 2016 with 230.0 IP, but it took him 35 starts to get there and his stats (3.99 ERA) were less impressive. So yeah, what Sandy Alcantara did this year was nothing short of spectacular and improbable. Here’s to hoping that Alcantara can allocate some of these innings to the postseason soon!

Most Valuable Player

Winner: 3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

Runner Up(s): 3B Nolan Arenado/1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

Actual Winner: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

The Stats

Manny Machado- .298/.366/.531/.897 w/ 152 wRC+, .382 wOBA, 32 HRs, 7.4 fWAR in 150 G

Nolan Arenado- .293/.358/.533/.891 w/ 151 wRC+, .381 wOBA, 30 HRs, 7.3 fWAR in 148 G

Paul Goldschmidt- .317/.404/.578/.982 w/ 177 wRC+, .419 wOBA, 35 HRs, 7.1 fWAR in 151 G

The Story

Am I being a homer? Maybe, but I don’t think so. The best hitter in the National League in 2022 was Paul Goldschmidt, plain and simple. However, this award isn’t named the best hitter award, it’s the Most Valuable Player. That leads us to the age-old question, the one that has been contested since our hunter and gatherer ancestors roamed the earth: what does it mean to be the most valuable? One way to calculate value in baseball is using the wins above replacement (WAR) statistic, which is meant to measure a player’s value compared to replacement level production. By fWAR, the Fangraphs type of WAR that I use, Manny Machado narrowly edges out the pair of Cardinals corner infielders with a 7.4 fWAR compared to 7.3 (Nolan Arenado) and 7.1 (Paul Goldschmidt). WAR isn’t a perfect or all-encompassing stat, however, especially when you consider that different forms of WAR such as bWAR (WAR produced by Baseball-Reference) often produce significantly different results. With three incredible candidates for the award, I think it is worth looking at each player’s situation to further discover who is the most valuable. Unlike the MVP race in the American League, all candidates led their team(s) to the playoffs. The situations of these players are quite different, though, as Arenado and Goldschmidt were slotted next to each other in the St. Louis lineup, benefitting from the fear that one another imposed on opposing pitchers. On the flip side, Machado had virtually no protection in the Padres lineup for the majority of the season and was often the sole contributor to San Diego’s offense. The Cardinals comfortably won the NL Central, while the Padres grabbed the 2nd Wild Card spot, but left little room for error. It’s purely hypothetical, but if the Cardinals didn’t have one of Arenado OR Goldschmidt, I think they would still make the playoffs and maybe even still win the division. On the other hand, I can confidently say that the Padres would not have made the playoffs without Manny Machado. By all accounts, Manny Machado carried the San Diego Padres to the postseason and, to me, served the most value of a single player to his team. I can’t fault any voter for selecting Nolan Arenado, who was a two-way wizard, or Paul Goldschmidt, the best hitter in the National League in 2022, as they are both more than worthy of receiving the award. In total, though, Manny Machado is my vote for National League MVP based on how integral and VALUABLE he was to his team.

American League

Rookie of the Year

Winner: CF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

Runner Up: C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

Actual Winner: CF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

The Stats

Julio Rodriguez- .284/.345/.509/.854 w/ 146 wRC+, .366 wOBA, 28 HRs, 5.3 fWAR in 132 G

Adley Rutschman- .254/.362/.445/.807 w/ 133 wRC+, .354 wOBA, 13 HRs, 5.3 fWAR in 113 G

The Story

The National League Rookie of the Year candidates were surprises dating back to before the season, while the American League award comes down to two former highly-touted prospects. At the end of 2021, MLB Pipeline had Julio Rodríguez listed as baseball’s #2 overall prospect, behind only Adley Rutschman. In 2022, Rodríguez made the Mariners 26-man roster on Opening Day, while Rutschman’s MLB debut was delayed until late May due to a nagging injury. Rodríguez looked overmatched to start the season in April, but once he found his groove, he couldn’t stop hitting. On top of being an offensive threat, J-Rod made his presence felt with his tantalizing speed and defensive prowess. Not to be overlooked, Rodríguez’s spectacular season helped propel the Mariners to their first postseason appearance since 2001. While Rutschman didn’t lift his team to the playoffs, his emergence was a key factor in the Orioles having their first winning record since 2016. Adley displayed impressive discipline (13.8 BB%) and looked like an experienced veteran both at and behind the dish. Behind the dish? Rutschman was credited with an eye-popping 18 DRS (defensive runs saved) and quickly earned the trust of the Baltimore pitching staff. He’s only played in 113 games in the bigs, but I already can confidently put him as a top 5 C in baseball. It’s a travesty that one of these players is gonna be denied this award, but I suppose life isn’t fair. Each player impacted their respective teams significantly in several different facets, but I’d ultimately cast my vote for Julio Rodríguez due to his overall advantage as a hitter. Moving forward, both Rodríguez and Rutschman are the faces of their franchises and will likely be engaged in MVP conversations against each other for a long time.

Cy Young

Winner: RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

Runner Up: RHP Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

Actual Winner: RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

The Stats

Justin Verlander- 1.75 ERA, 2.66 xERA, 2.49 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 9.51 K/9, 6.1 fWAR in 175.0 IP

Dylan Cease- 2.20 ERA, 2.70 xERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, 11.10 K/9, 4.4 fWAR in 184.0 IP

The Story

Many of these awards are tough to pick… this one is not. After being sidelined since essentially 2019 (6 IP in 2020) with injuries, Verlander didn’t only return to ace form in 2022, but was so dominant that he won the ERA title by a sizable margin. Durability was a (valid) concern for JV going into the year, but he managed to make 28 starts and get through 175 innings while maintaining an average fastball velocity of 95.1 MPH. Now on the free agent market, Verlander is going to be paid handsomely this offseason. Regarding the runner up, Dylan Cease had a phenomenal year for the Chicago White Sox that deserves tons of recognition. In most years, Cease would have a great argument to win the Cy Young, but unfortunately 2022 is not one of those years. What I find to be most remarkable about Cease’s season is the fact that he was so successful without fixing his walk issue (3.82 BB/9). He certainly needs to improve that walk rate to maintain this season’s stellar statistics, but kudos to Dylan Cease for an awesome 2022! There’s no shame in coming in second place!

Most Valuable Player

Winner: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

Runner Up: RF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Actual Winner: RF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

The Stats

Shohei Ohtani (hitting)- .273/.356/.519/.875 w/ 142 wRC+, .370 wOBA, 34 HRs, 3.8 fWAR in 157 G

Shohei Ohtani (pitching)- 2.33 ERA, 2.69 xERA, 2.40 FIP, 2.65 xFIP, 11.87 K/9, 5.6 fWAR in 166.0 IP

Aaron Judge- .311/.425/.686/1.111 w/ 207 wRC+, .458 wOBA, 62 HRs, 11.4 fWAR in 157 G

The Story

Hot take! Aaron Judge ran away with this award via the BBWAA’s voting (28 out of 30 first place votes), but I’m not sure I agree with their decision. Judge had one of the greatest offensive seasons in MLB history, a Bonds-esque performance. No matter what homerun record you recognize to be the “real” one, 62 long-balls is incredibly impressive. He narrowly lost the batting average title, but led in just about every other relevant offensive statistic. Not only was he a monster at the plate, Judge also graded out as a solid defender with 3 DRS and 2 OAA (85th percentile) while splitting time between his natural RF position and also CF. By all accounts, Aaron Judge had a legendary season. After hyping Judge up to the highest degree, how could I possibly pick against him for MVP? Well, Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani had been one of the most tantalizing players in MLB since his arrival from Japan, but health (or lack thereof) kept holding him back from unleashing his true potential. In 2021, Ohtani unleashed his full potential and took the sports world by storm with 46 HRs, a .964 OPS, and a 151 wRC+ on offense, accompanied by a 3.18 ERA/3.52 FIP in 130.1 IP on the mound. That wasn’t just an MVP season, it was unprecedented brilliance that the sport had never seen. In 2022, Ohtani managed to one-up himself. His offensive output decreased a bit (151 wRC+ in 2021 to 142 wRC+ in 2022), but remained elite. Offensively, Ohtani’s numbers don’t deserve to even be compared to Judge’s. However, Ohtani paired his great hitting numbers with a Cy Young caliber season as a pitcher. His slightly decreased workload hampered his Cy Young candidacy, but Ohtani was nearly unhittable with a 2.33 ERA/2.40 FIP courtesy of his filthy slider and a fastball that averaged 97.4 MPH. Comparing Ohtani’s combined pitching and hitting fWAR, he totals out at 9.4 fWAR, which comes up 2 fWAR behind Judge. But does WAR capture the greatness and uniqueness of Ohtani? I don’t think so. What Aaron Judge did in 2022 was marvelous, but we’ve seen similar offensive seasons such as Miguel Cabrera in 2013 (193 wRC+, 1.078 OPS), Bryce Harper in 2015 (197 wRC+, 1.109 OPS), and of course the otherworldly run for Barry Bonds from 2001 to 2004 (>200 wRC+ each season). Meanwhile, there is no comparison for Shohei Ohtani’s production in the modern era of baseball, only Babe Ruth’s two-way years in the early 1900s come close to resembling Ohtani. Ruth had success as both a hitter and a pitcher, but he never had a season with such dominance on both sides that can rival Ohtani’s 2022 season. If I don’t stop myself here, this may turn into a five paragraph, MLA formal essay. Aaron Judge had the best non-steroid offensive year in the modern era, there is no denying that. However, Shohei Ohtani is the most valuable player with his unparalleled and unprecedented two-way performance.

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