South Region Bracket Breakdown

This is March. In the spirit of March Madness, I’ve given a report on every team in the southern region.

1 Alabama

Record: 29-5 overall, 16-2 in conference, 13-5 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 15th in adjusted offense, 3rd in adjusted defense, 1st in effective field goal defense, 4th in tempo

Notable Stats: F Brandon Miller (19.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 40.1 3P%), G Mark Sears (12.5 PPG), F Noah Clowney (10.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG)

Breakdown: The Alabama Crimson Tide have ascended to the #1 overall seed primarily because of their spectacular newcomers. Freshmen Fs Brandon Miller and Noah Clowney have seamlessly transitioned to the college game, while Ohio transfer G Mark Sears has been a steady force in the back court. The x-factor for Alabama is G Jahvon Quinerly, the most notable returner from last year’s team. Quinerly started off the season slow, largely due to recovering from a torn ACL, but has looked like a star as of late. For an Alabama team that typically lives and dies from the three-point line, Quinerly can be an explosive force driving to the bucket if/when the threes aren’t falling. The Crimson Tide are very deep and well-rounded, there is no doubt that they’re capable of making a run to the National Championship.

2 Arizona

Record: 28-6 overall, 14-6 in conference, 9-2 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 4th in adjusted offense, 40th in adjusted defense, 9th in two-point percentage, 7th in tempo

Notable Stats: F Azuolas Tubelis (19.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG), C Oumar Ballo (14.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG), G Courtney Ramey (10.6 PPG, 3.6 APG, 40.9 3P%)

Breakdown: Despite losing three NBA draftees from last year’s team, Arizona has remained as one of the best teams in the country. F Azuolas Tubelis is the driving force for the Wildcats, as he led the Pac-12 in both points per game and rebounds per game. Paired with C Oumar Ballo, Arizona likely boasts the best front court in the country. What has held Arizona back is inconsistent guard play. Gs Courtney Ramey and Kerr Kriisa are snipers when they’re feeling it, but they thrive off of rhythm and will occasionally struggle immensely. Freshman G Kylan Boswell isn’t a marksman from deep, but has seen his role expand more and more as the season has gone on. Boswell might not score 20 PPG in the big dance, but he can be a spark plug off the bench and provide a jolt of energy for Tommy Lloyd.

Of note: G Kerr Kriisa (shoulder) and C Oumar Ballo (hand) are dealing with nagging injuries

3 Baylor

Record: 22-10 overall, 11-7 in conference, 11-10 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 2nd in adjusted offense, 99th in adjusted defense, 18th in offensive rebounding percentage, 188th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Keyonte George (15.8 PPG), G Adam Flagler (15.5 PPG, 4.7 APG), G LJ Cryer (14.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG)

Breakdown: We are a few years removed from Baylor’s title run, but several contributors from that team remain. First and foremost, coach Scott Drew remains at the helm. Senior G Adam Flagler has developed into a top scoring threat, as has junior G LJ Cryer. Fifth-year senior F/C Flo Thamba doesn’t fill up the stat sheet, but he provides necessary size and versatility. The true player to watch for Baylor is senior F Jonathan Tchamwa Tchactchua, who has missed the majority of the season due to injury, but is a hard-nosed asset off the bench. Baylor may lack true big men, but their stable of Gs are lethal and can carry the Bears to a deep run.

4 Virginia

Record: 25-7 overall, 15-5 in conference, 5-5 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 70th in adjusted offense, 25th in adjusted defense, 5th in turnover percentage, 360th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Armaan Franklin (12.5 PPG), F Jayden Gardner (12.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG), G Kihei Clark (10.9 PPG, 5.4 APG)

Breakdown: As per usual, Tony Bennett's team is built on defense and limiting possessions. G Kihei Clark has been an integral part of the team for the last several years and remains a viable threat on both sides of the ball. Junior G Reece Beekman has also emerged as a defensive ace, averaging nearly two steals per game. Armaan Franklin and Jayden Gardner are veteran leaders that are capable of making plays in the clutch. My concern for Virginia is their lack of big men. F Ben Vander Plas has been ruled out for the rest of the season, leaving 6'11" F Kadin Shedrick (5.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG) as the only traditional post presence. UVA's style of play can lull opposing offenses into forcing tough shots, but if Virginia can't set the pace early on, can they keep up with the more explosive teams in their region?

5 San Diego State

Record: 27-6 overall, 15-3 in conference, 5-5 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 41st in adjusted offense, 5th in adjusted defense, 7th in three point defense, 244th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Matt Bradley (12.9 PPG), G Darrion Trammell (9.5 PPG, 1.5 APG), F Jaedon LeDee (7.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG)

Breakdown: San Diego State may be the deepest team in the country, as they have nine players that get quality minutes. G Matt Bradley leads the team in scoring, but any given player is capable of taking over a game. Transfer G Darrion Trammell (Seattle) and F Jaedon LeDee (TCU) have become integral pieces of this Aztecs team, while G Adam Seiko and F/C Nathan Mensah have been awesome role players for the last five years. SDSU has been able to win higher scoring games, but their bread and butter is to dictate the game through their stifling defense. I’m not sure if this team has what it takes to make a Final Four run, but they match up very well with Charleston, their first round opponent, and could claw out another few victories.

6 Creighton

Record: 21-12 overall, 14-6 in conference, 3-9 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 26th in adjusted offense, 18th in adjusted defense, 20th in two-point defense, 152nd in tempo

Notable Stats: C Ryan Kalkbrenner (15.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.2 BPG), G Trey Alexander (13.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG), G Baylor Scheierman (12.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG)

Breakdown: Creighton came into the season with lofty expectations, but looked dead in the water when they went on a six game losing streak in December. Luckily, the Blue Jays turned it around and look like a more formidable contender. The catalyst for their success is C Ryan Kalkbrenner, who was dealing with a nagging injury and illness during their big losing streak. Opposing defenses have to respect Kalkbrenner and F Arthur Kaluma (11.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG) on the inside, but Creighton has capable shooters from the perimeter with Gs Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman, and Ryan Nembhard. Creighton lacks quality depth, which could hurt them if anyone gets into foul trouble. With that being said, Creighton is an exciting team that is stout on both sides of the ball and has several playmakers that can make a sizable impact on any given night.

7 Missouri

Record: 24-9 overall, 11-7 in conference, 6-9 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 10th in adjusted offense, 176th in adjusted defense, 13th in two-point percentage, 75th in tempo

Notable Stats: G/F Kobe Brown (15.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG), G D’Moi Hodge (14.8 PPG, 2.6 SPG), G DeAndre Gholston (10.7 PPG)

Breakdown: The Missouri Tigers have been one of the biggest surprises in college basketball. Coach Dennis Gates inherited G/F Kobe Brown, one of the best players in the SEC, but went portaling for Gs D’Moi Hodge (Cleveland State), Deandre Gholston (Milwaukee), and Nick Honor (8.0 PPG, Clemson transfer), as well as former UNI Panther F Noah Carter (9.5 PPG). The Tigers can score with the best of them, as evident by their strong offensive rating on Torvik. The Missouri defense leaves a lot to be desired and they lack great big man depth, but they have consistently found ways to win. They haven’t been perfect, but they’ve captured several marquee wins, such as a sweep of Tennessee, a blowout vs Illinois, and a thrilling win at Iowa State. Their path in the tournament is challenging, but don’t sleep on these Missouri Tigers.

8 Maryland

Record: 21-12 overall, 11-9 in conference, 3-10 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 36th in adjusted offense, 39th in adjusted defense, 48th in turnover percentage, 310th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Jahmir Young (16.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG), F Donta Scott (11.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG), F Julian Reese (11.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG)

Breakdown: Maryland has transitioned into a tournament team in year one of the Kevin Willard era. The Terrapins have leaned on returning G Hakim Hart (11.5 PPG) and Fs Donta Scott and Julian Reese, but their leading scorer is actually G Jahmir Young, a transfer from Charlotte. Maryland is quite well-rounded; they’re solid on both ends, but not spectacular in any particular area. Maryland has been nearly invincible at home, surrendering only one loss at the XFinity Center. On the road, Maryland is an abysmal 2-9 with those wins being over Minnesota and Louisville. In a small sample size, they are 3-2 in neutral site games, which obviously will be the location of any NCAA Tournament game. Maryland has a solid core with their quartet of guards and forwards, but I’m not sold that this is a team that will make it super far in March Madness. I believe that beating West Virginia is feasible, but I have my doubts about the Terrapins advancing to the second weekend.

9 West Virginia

Record: 19-14 overall, 7-11 in conference, 6-13 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 13th in adjusted offense, 50th in adjusted defense, 19th in free throw percentage, 110th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Erik Stevenson (15.5 PPG), F Tre Mitchell (11.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG), G Kedrian Johnson (11.2 PPG)

Breakdown: West Virginia’s record isn’t pretty, but the Mountaineers are more than deserving of a tournament bid. For context, 13 of West Virginia’s 14 losses were against Quad 1 opponents, a product of the incredible competition in the Big 12. They looked dead in the water, unable to close out games against tough opponents back in January, but WVU concluded the regular season with colossal victories over Iowa State and Kansas State. G Erik Stevenson, at his fourth school in five years, has been the leader of this squad, leading the team in points per game and posting a solid 38.1% from deep. F Tre Mitchell has also been an integral part of the team and a great compliment to Stevenson after transferring from Texas. West Virginia is doing this all without G Jose Perez, a Manhattan transfer that was unceremoniously denied eligibility by the NCAA for the 2022-2023 season. Virtually nothing about West Virginia is sexy, but they’re a tough team with ample experience against the best of the best in college basketball this year.

10 Utah State

Record: 26-8 overall, 13-5 in conference, 2-4 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 14th in adjusted offense, 64th in adjusted defense, 9th in effective field goal percentage, 101st in tempo

Notable Stats: G Steven Ashworth (16.3 PPG, 4.5 APG), F Taylor Funk (13.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG), F Dan Akin (12.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG)

Breakdown: If you believe in momentum heading into the tournament, Utah State may be the team for you! They were very average to begin conference play, but exploded with a seven game winning streak before falling to San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship Game. When the Aggies are in a groove, they’re really tough to stop because they’re so elite from beyond the arc. G Steven Ashworth leads the way with a 44.3 3P%, while sixth-year F Taylor Funk can knock down jump shots with ease (37.8 3P%). Their record against Quad 1 opponents leaves a bit to be desired, but they had limited opportunities and generally pass the eye test. These Aggies are a viable candidate to make a Sweet Sixteen run.

11 North Carolina State

Record: 23-10 overall, 12-8 in conference, 1-6 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 28th in adjusted offense, 86th in adjusted defense, 4th in offensive turnover percentage, 71st in tempo

Notable Stats: G Terquavion Smith (17.5 PPG, 4.2 APG), G Jarkel Joiner (17.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG), D.J. Burns (12.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG)

Breakdown: In terms of electricity in the backcourt, North Carolina State may be one of the best teams in the country. G Terquavion Smith has continued his scoring rampage from his freshman year at NC State, while G Jarkel Joiner emerged by way of Ole Miss. This team isn’t short on playmakers, they’ve just struggled in terms of efficiency. Their ability to not turn the ball over is huge, especially as it gets to crunch time. The issue in crunch time is the Wolfpack’s inability to shoot free throws, as indicated by their 340th ranking in free throw rate. F D.J. Burns rounds out a strong trio with Smith and Joiner, a formidable group that could, in theory, carry NC State to a few tournament wins. It’s certainly possible, but Creighton will be a tough matchup and the Wolfpack need to turn up their efficiency to win these postseason games.

12 College of Charleston

Record: 31-3 overall, 16-2 in conference, 0-1 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 74th in adjusted offense, 70th in adjusted defense, 17th in offensive rebound percentage, 23rd in tempo

Notable Stats: G Dalton Bolon (12.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG), F Ante Brzovic (11.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG), G Ryan Larson (10.6 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.6 SPG)

Breakdown: By all accounts, this has been a magical season for College of Charleston. From November 14th to January 21st, the Cougars went on an insane 20-game winning streak and made headlines nationally. This team isn’t a one man wrecking crew, rather they have six players averaging 9+ points per game. They aren’t built on high-profile transfers, they just work well as a cohesive unit. F Ante Brzovic brings quality size, while coach Pat Kelsey has an embarrassment of riches at guard, led by Dalton Bolon. Charleston plays at a frenetic pace, which can be tough to stop for opposing defenses. They make a lot of their money from the three-point line, but not necessarily at an efficient rate. College of Charleston has the makeup of a Cinderella team, but San Diego State’s imposing defense will be tough to overcome.

13 Furman

Record: 27-7 overall, 15-3 in conference, 0-2 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 31st in adjusted offense, 181st in adjusted defense, 1st in two-point percentage, 126th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Mike Bothwell (18.0 PPG), F Jalen Slawson (15.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG), G JP Pegues (12.0 PPG, 4.0 APG)

Breakdown: Furman has fielded solid teams since 2016, but haven’t been able to punch their ticket to the tournament until now. G Mike Bothwell has been with the program since 2018, progressing more and more each season, eventually becoming the top dog for the Paladins this season. He’s not a marksman from deep, but Bothwell can get crafty and get a bucket when you need one. Furman doesn’t boast incredible size but Fs Jalen Slawson (6’7”) and Garrett Hien (6’9”, 8.0 PPG) are a solid duo that can actually shoot the three-ball competently. Furman isn’t just offensively efficient by SOCON standards, but ranks 9th in efficient field goal percentage among the entire country. The offense is lethal, but the defense is lackluster. Similar to Charleston’s matchup against San Diego State, Furman will be challenged to maintain their offensive success against a Virginia team known for their discipline on defense. The impending task(s) may be daunting, but don’t count out the Paladins.

14 UC Santa Barbara

Record: 27-7 overall, 15-5 in conference, 0-0 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 65th in adjusted offense, 204th in adjusted defense, 22nd in two-point percentage, 311th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Ajay Mitchell (16.4 PPG, 5.1 APG), F Miles Norris (14.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG), F Andre Kelly (9.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG)

Breakdown: UC Santa Barbara may be seeded low, but they are more than capable of making a run. The name of the game for the Gauchos is efficiency, as they 22nd in two-point percentage and 28th in overall field goal percentage. To add, they don’t turn the ball over at a high rate, which is a must for teams trying to pull off upsets. Since transferring from Oregon after his freshman year, F Miles Norris has continued to develop into a legitimate scoring threat, both in the paint and from beyond the arc. Sophomore G Ajay Mitchell isn’t a premier perimeter threat, but he’s a playmaker that is remarkably efficient from the field. If UCSB is able to replicate their season stats into their matchup versus Baylor, they have a very plausible chance of winning.

15 Princeton

Record: 21-8 overall, 10-4 in conference, 1-1 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 100th in adjusted offense, 146th in adjusted defense, 9th in defensive rebounding, 168th in tempo

Notable Stats: F Tosan Evbuomwan (15.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.8 APG), G Ryan Langborg (12.1 PPG), F Caden Pierce (8.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG)

Breakdown: Champions of the Ivy League, Princeton is seeking their first NCAA Tournament win since 2011. The Tigers are strong as they move inside, grading out well in both two-point offense and defense, accompanied by strong offensive rebounding. The majority of their three pointers come from G Matt Allocco (11.0 PPG, 40.7 3P%), but they aren’t built to win by chucking threes. F Tosan Evbuomwan and G Ryan Langborg have ample experience within the program and have the characteristics of being mid-major monsters in the tournament. With that being said, it may take a miracle for Princeton to overcome Arizona. I’ll be rooting for them, though!

16 Texas A&M- Corpus Christi

Record: 24-10 overall, 14-4 in conference, 0-3 in Quad 1 games

Metrics: 151st in adjusted defense, 235th in adjusted defense, 50th in three-point percentage, 87th in tempo

Notable Stats: G Trevian Tennyson (15.6 PPG), F Isaac Mushila (14.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG), G Terrion Murdix (13.4 PPG, 5.4 APG)

Breakdown: Regardless of how they fare against Alabama, the Texas A&M- Corpus Christi Islanders will have a win in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, by way of their First Four victory over Southeast Missouri State. G Trevian Tennyson is an absolute baller, not just by Southland standards, but on a national level. F Isaac Mushila is also a phenomenal compliment to Tennyson, a duo that led the Islanders to a conference title. We have seen a 16 seed beat a 1 seed before, but I don’t think TAMU-CC will continue the trend.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you think will emerge from this region? Will an underdog make a deep run? Let me know in the comments below!

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