Super Bowl Primer

The Super Bowl is here, so let's take a deep dive into each position group for the defending champ Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC challenger Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

QB Matchup: Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs Tom Brady (TB)

Regular Season Stats: 4,740 yards/38 TDs/6 INTs vs 4,633 yards/40 TDs/12 INTs

Postseason Stats: 580 yards/4 TDs/0 INTs vs 860 yards/7 TDs/3 INTs

Let’s start off with the fearless leaders of their respective teams, the $500m man vs the grizzled veteran, Mahomes vs Brady. Starting off with Mahomes, he seems fully healthy and dominating after his 300+ yard and 3 TD game vs a staunch Buffalo defense. In the matchup between Kansas City and Tampa Bay in the regular season, Mahomes diced the Tampa D, throwing for a cool 462 yards and 3 TDs. In his postseason career, Mahomes averages 293.4 yards per game with a cumulative 65.5% completion percentage and a 17/2 TD to INT ratio. Lastly, in the 2020 Super Bowl, Mahomes was imperfect with 286 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. You know what you’re getting with Patrick Mahomes, he is the epitome of you can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him.

Next, of course, is the villainous Tom Brady. After sitting out of the Super Bowl in 2020, Brady returns in 2021 with his brand new team. Tom Terrific comes into the Super Bowl following an up and down performance against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, throwing 3 TDs and 280 yards, but also surrounding 3 INTs. The first time around against the Chiefs, Brady threw for 345 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs. Regarded as the “GOAT” and an elite postseason performer, Brady has averaged 278.4 yards per game with a 80/38 TD to INT ratio. In Super Bowls, Brady averages 315.3 yards with an 18/6 TD to INT ratio. He’s had some phenomenal performances, such as his 500 yard game in the 2018 loss to the Eagles, but he’s also put up some dud games. Although both games culminated in wins, Brady led his offenses to 13 points in the 2002 and 2019 Super Bowls vs the Rams, throwing for a combined 407 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. With Pat Mahomes leading the other side, Brady is going to have to put up 2014, 2016, 2017-esque numbers, not his weak performances vs the Rams. If there is one thing I am sure of, it is that it will take more than 13 points to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs.

Advantage: Chiefs

RB Matchup: Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Le’Veon Bell/Darrel Williams (KC) vs Leonard Fournette/Ronald Jones (TB)

Regular Season Stats (combined): 283 carries/1,226 yards/7 rushing TDs/1 receiving TD vs 289 carries/1,345 yards/13 rushing TDs/1 receiving TD

Postseason Stats (combined):34 carries/143 yards/2 rushing TDs vs 71 carries/289 yards/2 rushing TDs/1 receiving TD

For Kansas City, health at the RB spot is the biggest question. Clyde Edwards-Helaire enjoyed a solid rookie season, but has been banged up down the stretch. Le’Veon Bell has struggled to find his footing in Kansas City and has injury questions himself. Enter Darrel Williams, the former undrafted free agent, who has been their leading rusher in the postseason with 5 yards per carry. This Kansas City offense is primarily about Mahomes and the passing game, but to put themselves in a position to win, they need efficiency from the RBs. Whether it be CEH, Le’Veon, or the unheralded Darrel Williams, efficient running is important for the Chiefs.

In the regular season, it was the former USC star Ronald Jones getting the primary touches and outshining former top 5 pick Leonard Fournette. Jones nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing, finishing with 978 yards and 7 rushing TDs, but with injuries slowing him down, it has been all about Fournette in the postseason. After averaging closer to 3 yards per carry in the regular season, Fournette is averaging 4.4 yards per carry through 3 postseason games. He hasn’t had any off-the-charts games, but he’s averaging 70 rushing yards per game and has recorded 14 receptions for 102 yards. Jones only has 23 carries for 78 yards, but with extra time to heal, he should play a bigger role in the Super Bowl. With Fournette looking better and the prospect of RoJo returning healthy, the Bucs have the advantage at RB.

Advantage: Tampa Bay

WR Matchup: Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Sammy Watkins (KC) vs Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Antonio Brown (TB)

Regular Season Stats (combined): 165 catches/2,257 yards/21 TDs vs 180 catches/2,329 yards/24 TDs

Postseason Stats (combined): 23 catches/344 yards/1 TD vs 27 catches/455 yards/4 TDs

The Chiefs will be without Demarcus Robinson in the Super Bowl due to COVID-19, and although Sammy Watkins has struggled to stay healthy, this is a scary group of WRs. Tyreek Hill torched defenses all season, recording 1,276 yards and 15 TDs in 15 games. His best performance in the 2020 season came against none other than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he had an earth shattering 13 catches for 269 yards and 3 TDs. In the Super Bowl last year, Hill lead all receivers with 9 catches for 105 yards. Past Tyreek, Mecole Hardman also has excellent speed and has shown off his prowess catching footballs. Sammy Watkins is questionable to play, but he is another weapon for Patrick Mahomes. This has been a season to forget for the former Clemson stud, but he has plenty of big game experience and showed out with 98 yards in the 2020 Super Bowl. With some dwindling depth, also expect to see return man Byron Pringle to take some snaps.

The Buccaneers receiving trio also has some availability questions as Antonio Brown missed the NFC Championship Game and remains questionable. During the regular season, Tom Brady was able to spread the ball out nicely, with Evans turning in his 7th 1,000 yard season with 13 TDs, Godwin racking up 840 yada and 7 TDs, and Antonio Brown getting 483 yards and 4 TDs in just 8 games. Throw in slot speedster Scotty Miller and this WR core is lethal. Defenses will have to pick their poison in the way that they have to defend these guys. In the postseason, Chris Godwin leads yards with 223, but has only caught 14 of 28 passes thrown his way. The Bucs can’t afford drops from Godwin, end of story. They won’t have to worry about a Jaire Alexander on the opposing side, but the Chiefs have some physical DBs that will make these WRs work. Both teams boast phenomenal WRs, so I’m gonna chalk this one up as a draw.

Advantage: Draw

TE Matchup: Travis Kelce (KC) vs Rob Gronkowski/Cameron Brate (TB)

Regular Season Stats: 105 catches/1,416 yards/11 TDs vs 93 catches/905 yards/9 TDs

Postseason Stats: 21 catches/227 yards/3 TDs vs 13 catches/192 yards/1 TD

All respect to George Kittle, Travis Kelce is the unquestionable top TE in football right now. Kelce has always been incredible, but he was a different breed this 2020 season. His 1,417 yards is the most by a TE in a season in NFL history and finished seconds in receiving yards (including WRs) in all of football. Tyreek Hill has swagger and speed, but Travis is undoubtedly Patrick Mahomes’ top target and safety net. He has carried his big regular season into the postseason, averaging 10.5 catches and 113.5 yards per postseason game. In his first career Super Bowl last season, Kelce had 6 receptions for 43 yards with a 4th Quarter TD that sparked the KC comeback. It is hard not to be excited to see what the 6’5” 260 lbs monster will do for an encore this Sunday.

Similar to their RB room, Rob Gronkowski racked up the regular season numbers, 45 catches for 623 yards and 7 TDs, but it has been Cameron Brate making the plays in the postseason. In three games, Brate has 11 catches for 149 yards and 1 TD, while Gronk holds only 2 receptions. Despite a quiet postseason in 2021, Gronk is historically one of the greatest postseason performers, recording over 1,200 yards and 12 TDs in 19 games. In its current state, this duo doesn’t quite matchup with Kelce, but it is plenty formidable.

Advantage: Chiefs

OL Matchup: Rankin/Allegretti/Reiter/Wylie/Remmers (KC) vs Smith/Marpet/Jensen/Stinnie/Wirfs (TB)

Stats: 11th best OL per PFF/28 sacks allowed (18 games)/28 penalties (18 games) vs 5th best OL per PFF/27 sacks allowed (19 games)/27 penalties (19 games)

I am not an offensive line guru, so I’ll keep this section simple. At full strength, the Chiefs boast a pretty strong OL, but without their typical OTs Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher, they’ll have a tough task in stopping the Buccaneers pass rush.

For the Buccaneers, they’ve been able to mainly stay healthy, with stalwarts like Smith, Marpet, and Jensen continuing with business per usual. Rookie Tristan Wirfs has played the RT position well and filled out the OL well. They have surrendered 5 sacks this postseason, but they’ve been facing some good front 7s. This matchup looks to go to Tampa Bay.

Advantage: Buccaneers

DL Matchup: Kpassagnon/Jones/Nnadi/Clark (KC) vs Suh/Vea/Gholston (TB)

Regular Season Stats (combined): 140 tackles/14.5 sacks/15 TFLs vs 98 tackles/9 sacks/22.5 TFLs

Postseason Stats (combined): 17 tackles/3 sacks/4 TFLs vs 10 tackles/0 sacks/0 TFLs

In their AFC Championship Game victory, the Chiefs were able to consistently get pressure on Josh Allen. To beat Tampa Bay, they’ll have to get after Tom Brady to get a W. Chris Jones is as disruptive as any IDL in the league, while Derrick Nnadi also gets work done inside. Frank Clark may not be as good as his massive contract would lead you to think, but he is a productive pass rusher for KC. Tanoh Kpassagnon (have fun saying that) is a fine rotational player that will mix in and out with guys like Mike Danna. If this group does its job well, expect a Kansas City repeat.

The DL is a mismatch for Tampa schematically, as they employ more of a 3-4 base with their top pass rushers off the edge. Skewing these numbers is also the long absences from Vita Vea, as he only appeared in 5 regular season games and was active, but not playing in the NFC Championship Game. This interior unit is strong with a fully healthy Vea and Suh playing well, but especially with the schematic differences between the two teams, Kansas City takes the cake for DL.

Advantage: Chiefs

LB Matchup: Hitchens/Wilson (KC) vs Pierre-Paul/White/David/Barrett (TB)

Regular Season Stats (combined): 151 tackles/0 sacks/6.5 TFLs/0 TOs vs 369 tackles/28 sacks/56 TFLs/8 TOs

Postseason Stats (combined): 16 tackles/0 sacks/1 TFL/0 TOs vs 64 tackles/6 sacks/8 TFLs/3 TOs

This here is both a schematic and skill mismatch for the Chiefs. Their primary nickel defense leaves them with typically 2 LBs. Hitchens is a 7 year veteran, but merely average as a player. Wilson, as well, is a long-time player (who played in Dallas before Kansas City like Hitchens), but doesn’t offer anything exciting or off the chart. If this analysis is bland, it’s fitting because that is what this Chiefs LB corps is.

At the LB spot, this one isn’t close. Tampa Bay has two explosive pass-rushers in Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett, who combined for 17.5 sacks in the regular season. On the inside, Tampa Bay has a great veteran in Lavonte David and a budding superstar in second-year player Devin White. This postseason, White has recorded 3 TOs (1 INT and 2 FRs) in 3 games, keeping his phenomenal season rolling. This LB group might be the best in football, so they definitely have the upper hand vs a primarily two man LB group for Kansas City.

Advantage: Buccaneers

CB Matchup: Ward/Breeland/Fenton/Sneed (KC) vs Davis/Murphy-Bunting/Dean (TB)

Regular Season Stats (combined): 165 tackles/29 PDs/6 INTs 200 tackles/28 PDs/6 INTs

Postseason Stats (combined): 38 tackles/4 PDs/1 INT vs 42 tackles/9 PDs/3 INTs

I’ll start by prefacing that these guys will be rotated in and out, these 4 won’t all be playing ever snap. With that put out there, this is a small named group that is sneaky solid. Not one of the leagues best, but Ward, Fenton, and Breeland are all solid players that can perform at a respectable level. L’Jarius Sneed has had some good moments in his rookie season too, but is far from a polished product. I keep saying these guys are solid, but not necessarily well equipped to stop the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and co.

Like the Chiefs, this isn’t the sexiest group, but these are some stingy CBs. Carlton Davis has had a strong season, recording 18 pass deflections and 4 INTs in the regular season, before famously locking down Michael Thomas in NFC Divisional Round. This postseason, Sean Murphy-Bunting has been making plays as shown by his 3 INTs. Jamel Dean isn’t quite at the level of his aforementioned teammates, but he’s a more than competent third CB that can hold his own.

Advantage: Buccaneers

S Matchup: Sorensen/Mathieu/Thornhill (KC) vs Winfield Jr./Whitehead/Edwards (KC)

Regular Season Stats (combined): 194 tackles/17 PDs/10 INTs vs 179 tackles/15 PDs/5 INTs

Postseason Stats (combined): 26 tackles/6 PDs/1 INT vs 27 tackles/3 PDs/1 INT

Tyrann Mathieu is the heart and soul of this defense, leading the team with 6 INTs and putting up 62 tackles, but don’t sleep on the other guys. Sorensen led KC in regular season tackles at 91 tackles and as a viewer, I always see Sorensen making plays. Former UVA Cavalier Juan Thornhill also is a thorn in offenses sides, despite dealing with some injuries. Tyrann “The Honey Badger” Mathieu is the epitome of a big game player, so I expect him to be a difference maker in this matchup.

This trio of safeties is plenty talented, but their health is a serious question. Winfield missed the NFC Championship Game with a nagging ankle injury, and although he says he’ll play, we don’t know if he’ll be 100%. The same goes for Jordan Whitehead, who left the game vs the Packers with various injuries and is questionable to play in the Super Bowl. Mike Edwards has stepped in and played well through the season, but he can’t do it himself. If I were told that all of these guys were gonna be 100% healthy, I may switch my pick on this, but with question marks for Winfield Jr. and Whitehead, I’m gonna go with the safer Chiefs.

Advantage: Chiefs

ST Matchup: Butker/Townsend/Hardman/Pringle (KC) vs Succop/Pinion/Mickens (TB)

Regular Season Stats: 92.6 FG%/45 Punt AVG/26.7 KR AVG (1 TD)/7 PR AVG (1 TD) vs 90.3 FG%/45.2 Punt AVG/24.3 KR AVG/6.2 PR AVG

Postseason Stats: 80 FG%/44 Punt AVG/22.7 KR AVG/4 PR AVG vs 100 FG%/43.3 Punt AVG/21 KR AVG/7.8 PR AVG

Amongst a potent offense and good defense, the Chiefs have great special teams. Harrison Butker has blossomed into one of the best kickers in football, despite missing a FG and XP this postseason. Tommy Townsend isn’t a great punter, but they don’t task him with many opportunities (1 punt in the playoffs). Lastly, the returning duo of Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman is as explosive as any returner in the league. Pringle boasts a KR TD and Hardman, with his world class speed, a 1 PR TD.

Tampa Bay has a perfectly normal special teams group. Succop has been pretty money on normal FGs, but has missed 6 XPs this season. Pinion is towards the bottom of punt yard averages and Jaydon Mickens is nothing special return wise. Chiefs take this one for sure!

Advantage: Chiefs

Total Advantage: Chiefs (5-4-1)

X-Factor: Chris Jones, Kansas City DT.

I said it in the DL column, if that front four gets home like they did vs Josh Allen and the Bills, the Chiefs should win. Jones didn’t get a $20M AAV contract because he’s a slouch, the guy makes great plays on the QB from the interior. No QB does well with pressure, especially the pure pocket passer in Tom Brady. Getting after Brady and forcing quick decisions will also help overmatched Chief DBs in their assignments. Chris got paid to make plays, and there is no game bigger than the game on February 7th.

Prediction: 38-27 Chiefs

Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes- 27-37 for 310 yards and 4 TDs

Don’t let the 11 point margin fool you, this should be a great game that is competitive till the end. Ultimately, I think the Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce connection will cripple the Tampa Bay defense down the stretch. Tampa Bay’s offense should have some success, but I think Kansas City will be able to bend and not break to stop Tom Brady from converting TDs. The key for a Tampa Bay victory is taking advantage of a weak opposing OL, but Mahomes has the escapability to overcome and diagnose pressure. In the end, Tom is denied of another ring and Pat Mahomes gets #2, with likely many more in his future.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you think will win the Super Bowl? Who takes home Super Bowl MVP? Let me know in the comments below!

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