Today's Games: A Guide to the Final Four

After weeks of phenomenal basketball, the field of 68 has been shrunk to just four teams. We are left with the Kansas Jayhawks, Villanova Wildcats, Duke Blue Devils, and North Carolina Tar Heels. After my painfully bad bracket, I’ll take a stab at picking the winners of the Final Four games. Let’s go!

1 Kansas Jayhawks vs 2 Villanova Wildcats (3:09 PM PST on TBS)

By the numbers:

PPG: KU 78.3 (16th) NOVA 71.9 (122nd)

PPG allowed: KU 67.3 (107th) NOVA 62.2 (18th)

Adjusted Offense: KU 118.4 (7th) NOVA 117.2 (9th)

Adjusted Defense: KU 91.7 (18th) NOVA 91.7 (17th)

Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes): KU 69.5 (61st) NOVA 62.6 (345th)

Strength of Schedule: +12.02 (4th) NOVA +11.12 (11th)

Record: KU 32-6 (T2nd) NOVA 30-7 (6th)

Based on the numbers above, these teams are very close to one another. There’s a slight advantage to Kansas, which makes sense given the fact they are a number one seed. Offensively, the Jayhawks have a slight advantage, while the Wildcats have a slim edge on the defensive side. One key difference between these teams is the pace of play. Kansas doesn’t run their offense at a frenetic pace, but compared to the snail-pace Wildcats of Villanova, the Jayhawks offense can be considered fast. If Kansas can speed up the game, they’ll be in position to win. If Villanova can slow the game down and limit possessions, I believe Jay Wright’s squad will advance to the title game.

By the personnel:

Kansas projected starting lineup:

G 6’1” DaJuan Harris (5.4 PPG, 4.2 APG)

G 6’5” Ochai Agbaji (18.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG)

G 6’6” Christian Braun (14.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG)

F 6’8” Jalen Wilson (11 PPG, 7.4 RPG)

F 6’10” David McCormack (10.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG)

6th man: G 6’0” Remy Martin (8.6 PPG, 2.6 APG, 1.1 SPG)

Villanova projected starting lineup:

G 6’3” Collin Gillespie (15.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG)

G 6’4” Caleb Daniels (10.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG)

F 6’7” Jermaine Samuels (11.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG)

F 6’7” Brandon Slater (8.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG)

F 6’8” Eric Dixon (9.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG)

Note: G 6’4” Justin Moore (14.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG) tore his achilles and is out for the remainder of the season

Kansas G Ochai Agbaji, a National Player of the Year Candidate, is certainly the best overall player in this matchup. However, G Remy Martin has been electric for the Jayhawks in the postseason, averaging over 15 PPG during March Madness. Remy struggled adjusting at Kansas throughout the year after his transfer from ASU, but he’s recaptured what had him selected as the pre-season Big 12 Player of the Year. A fifth-year senior, G Collin Gillespie is the heart and soul of Villanova. He hasn’t shot great in the postseason, but Gillespie is a special talent that can take over games. With the injury to G Justin Moore, look for senior G Caleb Daniels to move into the starting lineup and elevate into a higher role. To the paint, Kansas has a slight advantage with 6’10” David McCormick protecting the rim, but the Wildcats play bigger than a team with no players clocking in any taller than 6’8”. Caleb Daniels is the obvious x-factor for Villanova, while I’d say sophomore F Jalen Wilson is the key for Kansas. If Wilson plays well and can shoot efficiently, it will open up the offense for Kansas and give them more looks on the perimeter.

By the history:

All-time matchups: 5-4 Villanova over Kansas

Most recent matchup: No. 18 Villanova over No. 1 Kansas 56-55 (Dec. 21, 2019)

Head coach matchups: 5-3 Jay Wright over Bill Self

Head coach tenure: Jay Wright (2001-present) Bill Self (2003-present)

National Championships: 3 Kansas (1952, 1988, 2008) 3 Villanova (1985, 2016, 2018)

These are two prestigious programs with rich histories. Since Bill Self and Jay Wright took over at their respective schools in the early 2000s, Kansas and Villanova have been mainstays at the top of the college basketball world. Most of the matchups between Self’s Jayhawks and Wright’s Wildcats have been very close, but the big difference is Villanova’s postseason success over Kansas. Villanova defeated Kansas in the Elite Eight in 2016, then turned around two years later and throttled the Jayhawks in the Final Four. It’s hard to determine who is the better coach, it truly comes down to personal preference and the eye test. I don’t see a huge advantage in the coaching department, but I consider Villanova’s Jay Wright to currently be the best coach in all of college basketball.

By Las Vegas:

Game line: Kansas -4.5

Game over/under: 134

Moneyline: Kansas -200 / Villanova +170

The Athletic: 8 of 11 experts picked Kansas

Bleacher Report: Kerry Miller picked Kansas 68-59

Yahoo! Sports: 8 of 10 experts picked Kansas

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas, as well as various sports media members, are big on the Jayhawks. Given Villanova’s loss of Justin Moore it makes sense, but I wouldn’t count out the champions of the west region. The line of -4.5 Kansas is sketchy to me. On one hand, Kansas could blow the Justin Moore-less Wildcats out of the water. On the other hand, Villanova could grit and grind their way to winning the game, or at least make it a one possession game. Ultimately, I wouldn’t touch the game line. I expect each possession to be very valuable in this game, especially if Villanova is able to play at their pace. With that being said, I would take the under on 134.

My Pick: 67-59 1 Kansas over 2 Villanova

I cannot reiterate this enough, DO NOT SLEEP ON VILLANOVA. They are a resilient bunch that play well as a cohesive unit. Even without Justin Moore, the Wildcats are a talented and well-coached squad. With that being said, I am taking the Kansas Jayhawks. One of the biggest reason I’m rocking (chalking, and Jayhawking) with Kansas is their deep bench. The Jayhawks can trot out up to ten players, while Villanova will go six to seven players deep. Villanova has had success with a small bench all year long, but it will be a challenge for a reserve player such as G Chris Arcidiacono, who averages only 1.6 PPG. Kansas boasts the spark plug Remy Martin off the bench, as well as a capable backup big man (Mitch Lightfood) and a solid shooter (Jalen Coleman-Lands). Depth isn’t crucial to success (see: North Carolina and Villanova in the Final Four), but Kansas simply has more guys that can do damage. I like Remy Martin scoring double-digits off the bench and leading the Kansas Jayhawks to their first title tilt since 2012.

2 Duke Blue Devils vs 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (5:49 PM PST on TBS)

By the numbers:

PPG: Duke 80.1 (6th) UNC 78.1 (19th)

PPG allowed: Duke 67.4 (113th) UNC 71.1 (211th)

Adjusted Offense: Duke 121.0 (1st) UNC 114.4 (18th)

Adjusted Defense: Duke 95.5 (45th) UNC 94.7 (39th)

Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes): Duke 67.3 (170th) UNC 70.3 (39th)

Strength of Schedule: Duke +7.84 (52nd) UNC +8.99 (29th)

Record: Duke 32-6 (T2nd) UNC 28-9 (16th)

The baseline team statistics indicate a gap between these two teams. They aren’t ridiculously far apart overall, but Duke has a far more potent offense than North Carolina. Defensively, Duke allows fewer points per game, while North Carolina grades out slightly better on KenPom’s adjusted defense statistic. UNC runs their offense at a faster pace, but Duke doesn’t move at a snail’s pace like Villanova, which leads me to believe that tempo won’t play a huge factor in this game. Defense is the key for both of these teams. Limiting transition buckets will go a long way in deciding this game. Duke boasts arguably the top offense in all of college basketball, will the Tar Heels rise to the occasion and shut the Blue Devils down? Time will tell.

By the personnel:

Duke projected starting lineup:

G 6’1” Jeremy Roach (8.6 PPG, 3.1 APG)

G/F 6’5” Wendell Moore Jr. (13.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG)

G/F 6’6” A.J. Griffin (10.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG)

F 6’10” Paolo Banchero (17.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG)

C 7’0” Mark Williams (11.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG)

6th man: G 6’4” Trevor Keels (11.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG)

North Carolina projected starting lineup:

G 6’0” R.J. Davis (13.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG)

G 6’4” Caleb Love (15.7 PPG, 3.7 APG)

G/F 6’8” Leaky Black (4.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG)

F 6’9” Brady Manek (15.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG)

C 6’10” Armando Bacot (16.5 PPG, 12.8 RPG)

6th man: G/F 6’8” Puff Johnson (2.8 PPG, 1.8 RPG)

If there’s one thing this matchup provides, it’s star power. The Blue Devils are led by projected top five pick Paolo Banchero, who has looked more like a fifth-year player than a true freshman. Don’t sleep on A.J. Griffin, one of the best shooters in the country and possible lottery pick in the NBA Draft. Down low, Duke big man Mark Williams is as powerful of a force as you’ll find in college basketball. However, North Carolina may be even stronger in the post with Armando Bacot, one of the premier players in the country on both ends of the floor. Bacot is the unquestioned leader for the Tar Heels, but if you need a clutch bucket, Caleb Love is your guy. As demonstrated in his 30 point performance against UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen, Love is capable of taking over a game. He’s not as flashy as Bacot or Love, but Brady Manek might be the biggest factor in UNC’s success. When Manek is on, North Carolina often wins. When Manek is off, North Carolina often loses. Neither team goes particularly deep into their bench, but Duke has a great energizer in Trevor Keels (11.3 PPG) off the pine. In terms of looking player-by-player, this is an incredibly tight matchup.

By the history:

All-time matchups: 142-115 North Carolina over Duke

Most recent matchup: North Carolina over No. 4 Duke 94-81 (March 5th, 2022)

Head coach matchups: 1-1 Mike Krzyzewski vs Hubert Davis

Head coach tenure: Mike Krzyzewski (1980-present) Hubert Davis (2021-present)

National Championships: 5 Duke (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, 2015) 6 North Carolina (11957, 1982, 1993, 2005, 2009, 2017)

Given the intensity and animosity of this rivalry, it is a bit surprising to see North Carolina boast a nearly 30 win lead all-time over Duke. Aside from possibly the legendary John Wooden at UCLA, no coach has been as successful in college basketball as Mike Krzyzewski at Duke. In his final season at the helm of the Blue Devils program, the rival Tar Heels are led by a first-time head coach: Hubert Davis. It would be asinine to compare Coach K and Davis, but what we do know is that Davis has righted the ship and brought North Carolina to the Final Four. Now, Hubert Davis didn’t bring UNC to the Final Four by playing, rather he kept his team composed during trying moments during the regular season and helped guide the Tar Heels into the postseason. Duke and UNC split the season series, with the Blue Devils winning in a blowout in Chapel Hill, while the Tar Heels spoiled Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor. These two teams may not be loved by basketball fans across the country, but there’s no disputing that these are two of the greatest basketball programs of all-time. There have been countless incredible games between these teams, but these teams have never played in the NCAA Tournament. With that being said, I believe this is the biggest and most important game between the Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels.

By Las Vegas:

Game line: Duke -4.5

Game over/under: 151

Moneyline: Duke -190 / North Carolina +160

The Athletic: 11 of 11 experts picked Duke

Bleacher Report: Kerry Miller picked Duke 83-77

Yahoo! Sports: 9 of 10 experts picked Duke

Similar to their affinity with Kansas, the media loves Duke. Should Duke win, I think they’ll cover the -4.5 spread. It’s merely a gut-feeling, but I think Duke winning means that the game isn’t coming down to the final possession. With that being said, I would be weary of betting on the line given the unpredictability of this rivalry. The O/U is high, but these teams exceeded a cumulative score of 151 in both of their regular season tilts. The scores in college basketball fluctuate quite a bit, but I love the over 151. I understand the majority of analysts picking Duke to win, but I am a little surprised with how overwhelming the support for the Blue Devils is. North Carolina is the hottest team in the country and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they win this game.

My Pick: 82-77 2 Duke over 8 North Carolina

I really want to pick UNC, I really do. However, I think we’ll see an angry Duke team looking to avenge their embarrassing loss against North Carolina back at Cameron Indoor. Paolo Banchero is the star of the team and may draw the most attention, but I think Duke will win this game behind a strong performance from A.J. Griffin. Griffin has been a tad bit inconsistent, but he’s one of the top players in the sport when he’s on. I expect this game to be neck and neck all the way through, lots of trading buckets. My confidence in the Blue Devils is not nearly as strong as the slew of experts I referenced above, I really think there is a good shot that the Tar Heels win this game. Maybe it’s the Coach K factor, but I am locking in my pick of the Duke Blue Devils advancing to the National Championship.

It’s March Madness! It’s the most unpredictable spectacle in sports, as proven by my pick for the title losing in the first round! In the end, however, the fans have been given a Final Four made up entirely of blue bloods. Tonight’s games should be fantastic! After all of my thorough research and writing, I’m certain I’ll be wrong with both of my picks. But that is the beauty of the madness!

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Which teams will move on to the title game? Who is gonna win it all? What players will shine in the Final Four? Let us know in the comments below!

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