World Series Breakdown: Dodgers vs Rays
- Jeremy
- Oct 20, 2020
- 7 min read
We've navigated through a shortened regular season and lengthy postseason to get to this point, with both top seeds ready to duke it out. This is a David vs. Goliath matchup, the rag-tag Rays, with one of the leagues lowest payrolls, square up with the storied franchise that is the Dodgers, loaded with stars like Mookie Betts. The Dodgers are the pretty heavy favorites in Vegas, but the Rays are used to being overlooked. Here, I'll breakdown each part of the ball clubs and give my final World Series predictions.
Catcher: Will Smith/Austin Barnes vs Mike Zunino
Mike Zunino has delivered some clutch moments this postseason, but the "Fresh Prince of Chavez Ravine" has been an absolute monster all year long. Smith slashed .289/.401/.579 during the regular season and has provided that similar pop from behind the dish during the postseason. Austin Barnes may get some playing time, but it's all about Will Smith
Advantage: Dodgers
First Base: Max Muncy vs Ji-Man Choi/Yandy Díaz
This is an interesting comparison, because based on the name, you'd probably take Max Muncy. However, Muncy really struggled during the regular season and has hit some HRs in the postseason, but hasn't been on par with the Rays duo. Ji-Man Choi has absolutely raked in the postseason, slashing .385/.529/.615 in the ALCS vs. the Astros and providing plenty of smiles. Díaz has had a quiet postseason, but he's coming off a phenomenal regular season and can mash against lefties.
Advantage: Rays
Second Base: Kíke Hernández/Chris Taylor vs Mike Brosseau/Brandon Lowe
Brosseau hit the magical HR off Aroldis Chapman and Brandon Lowe had a hot start to the regular season, but neither have hit well in the postseason. The two together are hitting a lackluster 10 for 75 during this postseason, and although the Dodgers duo isn't deadly, Kíke had a strong NLCS and has a knack for clutch hits.
Advantage: Dodgers
Shortstop: Corey Seager vs Willy Adames
With all due respect to Willy Adames, Corey Seager is the vastly superior player. Seager has followed up an outstanding regular season (.307/.358/.585) with a monster postseason. The Dodgers shortstop had a solid series vs. the Padres in the NLDS, then absolutely exploded in the NLCS, hitting 5 homers en route to winning series MVP. Adames is pretty nice with the glove and is a fan favorite, but nothing near Seager.
Advantage: Dodgers
Third Base: Justin Turner vs Joey Wendle
Again, the Dodgers have the bigger name, but Joey Wendle isn't a slouch by any means. Wendle consistently gets on base (.342 OBP), but isn't an incredible power threat. Turner has been banged up and bruised quite a bit, but all the guy does is hit. He's such a pesky guy to pitch to; he works deep into counts and always finds a way to get on base. His lack of mobility as a base runner is something to be noted, but JT still holds the advantage.
Advantage: Dodgers
Left Field: Joc Pederson/A.J. Pollock vs Randy Arozarena
For the Dodgers, you have two guys that perform very differently. Pollock had a solid regular season, but has infamously struggled in the playoffs. On the other hand, Pederson had a horrific regular season, but come the postseason, it becomes Joctober with the way he swings the twig. Joc in the postseason is scary, but no one is scarier right now than Randy Arozarena. Sent to Tampa Bay in the odd Matthew Liberatore deal, Arozarena missed the majority of the regular season with COVID. Upon return, he produced an OPS above 1.000 and now is reeling off one of the most impressive postseason performances ever. He's 21-55 with a whopping 7 homers during the postseason, producing a wild 1.288 OPS. Move aside Joctober, the Randy Arozarena laser-show is already in motion.
Advantage: Rays
Center Field: Cody Bellinger vs Kevin Kiermaier/Manuel Margot
Another pretty easy pick, this has got to be Cody Bellinger. The reigning NL MVP had a regular season to forget, but he's been electric this postseason, with highlights such as his robbery of Fernando Tatis Jr and his series-clinching HR vs the Braves. Kiermaier is an elite defender, but offers little to nothing at the plate. Manny Margot is also a good defender and had a spectacular performance in Game 2 vs the Astros, but nothing near Cody Bellinger.
Advantage: Dodgers
Right Field: Mookie Betts vs Austin Meadows/Hunter Renfroe
An MVP candidate vs two power-hitters in slumps? Give me Mookie.
Advantage: Dodgers
Overall hitting advantage: Dodgers
Game 1 Starting Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw vs Tyler Glasnow
This series should feature some incredible matchups; a finesse pitcher vs power pitcher. Clayton Kershaw has a poor postseason reputation, but he's still one of the greatest pitchers of the generation. He casually was fantastic during the regular season and has avoided meltdowns in the playoffs... thus far. Kersh works the slow and accurate game, while Glasnow pumps 100 at batters with a hard curveball. Dubbed a CY Young dark horse by me, Glasnow doesn't have eye-popping 2020 base stats, but he strikes guys out at a prolific rate. I like Tyler to give the Dodgers some issues, but I can't necessarily say he's better than Kershaw.
Advantage: Push
Game 2 Starting Pitchers: TBD (Dustin May) vs Blake Snell
The Dodgers haven't officially announced a game two starter, so I'll slot in Dustin May over Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin. The rookie was electric in the regular season, putting himself in Rookie of the Year contention. Dustin May wasn't great in the NLCS, but he throws a 100 mph sinker and all of his pitches move, so he is a legit threat. Snell is a former CY Young winner, who like May, has had success during the regular season. Snell, and May for this matter, hasn't worked deep into games, so he needs to be incredible if he's usually going around 5 innings. Both great pitchers, I don't see a clear advantage.
Advantage: Push
Game 3 Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler vs TBD (Charlie Morton)
Walker Buehler is slotted in for game three. I'm gonna assume Chuck Morton goes for the Rays. Buehler didn't have a dominant regular season, but has been near unhittable during this postseason. He ran into some trouble during game six vs. the Braves, but ultimately left unscathed. On the flip side, Charlie Morton had a forgettable regular season filled with injuries and ineffectiveness. Come the postseason, however, he is a different breed. Over the past two postseasons, Morton has given up only 2 runs through 25 2/3 innings. Buehler might be the better pitcher at this point, but Morton's postseason pedigree makes me side with Tampa Bay.
Advantage: Rays
Game 4 Starting Pitchers: TBD (Tony Gonsolin) vs TBD (Ryan Yarbrough)
Neither team has lined up the starter for this game, but I'm going to make the educated guess that it'll be Gonsolin vs Yarbrough. Gonsolin, nicknamed "Goose," enjoyed a fantastic regular season with an ERA hovering around 2.30. He's only thrown 6 1/3 innings in the postseason, but he's surrendered 7 runs. Yarbrough, in typical Rays fashion, has been very solid while getting no press. He's nothing spectacular, but he's a guy that you know you'll get some quality innings from. This is close, but I like Gonsolin finding his groove.
Advantage: Dodgers
Bullpen: Brusdar and the boys vs "The Stable"
Probably the two best bullpens meet here, so this should be a fun one if you love pitching. For the Dodgers, I expect Julio Urías to continue to be used in his swing role, where he has been dominant this postseason. Past Julio, truth be told, the Dodgers pen has been unspectacular in the postseason. Blake Treinen has been fine, Brusdar Graterol has been a mixed bag, then Pedro Baez and Dylan Floro have been solid in limited innings. The biggest question mark is Kenley Jansen. He's been okay this postseason, but until we see him fully exonerate his demons, he's not trustworthy. For the Rays, their stallion Nick Anderson hasn't been perfect this postseason, but he is nonetheless a stud. John Curtiss was hampered by a big inning vs the Yankees, but really outside of him, the Rays pen has been insane. Ryan Thompson, Aaron Slegers, Peter Fairbanks, and Diego Castillo have been lights out. They may have the less well-known names, but the Rays bullpen will take the cake right now.
Advantage: "The Stable" a.k.a Rays
Overall pitching advantage: Rays
With each area broken down, I'll hop into some predictions!
Bold Prediction #1: Yandy Díaz leads the series in HRs
Díaz might not start every game and has struggled in the postseason, but he is a big man with some big time power. Kevin Cash will plug Yandy in against the Dodger lefties, then he will feast.
Bold Prediction #2: Cody Bellinger is neutralized by the Rays lefties
I mentioned how Bellinger has looked more like himself this postseason, but he hasn't faced the slew of lefties that the Rays have. He'll likely see Snell and Yarbrough from the get-go, then Aaron Loup, Jose Alvarado (if healthy), and Josh Fleming from the pen. Mix in some of the power righties and I think Belli will be a non-factor at the plate.
I really don't have many bold predictions, or much more to say, in general. So it is time to reveal my final predictions.
For the 2020 World Series between the Dodgers and Rays...
I have winning...
In seven games...
*pause for dramatic effect*
The Tampa Bay Rays!
World Series MVP: Charlie Morton
The Dodgers may have the bigger names and may come off as the superior team, but the grit and depth of this Rays team is too good. Their offense won't go as crazy as the Braves did, but some clutch hitting from the Randy Man, Zunino, and Ji-Man will be enough to hand off to their elite bullpen. Assuming Morton pitches game 3, he'd likely be the guy in the do-or-die game 7. I gushed over his playoff performances earlier, so I'll have him be the second pitcher in a row winning World Series MVP, following Stephen Strasburg's magnificent 2019 postseason.
If you've made it this far, thanks for reading! Who do you have winning the World Series? How will Randy Arozarena play? Will Joctober continue its reign? Can Kersh and Kenley break their postseason struggles? Let me know down in the comments below!
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