2021 MLB Season Predictions

After an abbreviated 2020 season that saw the Los Angeles Dodgers hoist the World Series trophy, all 162 games are back for 2021! The fun kicks off tomorrow, so without further ado, here’s your full scale predictions and guide to the 2021 MLB season.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers 105-57

San Diego Padres 95-67 (WC)

San Francisco Giants 79-83

Arizona Diamondbacks 75-87

Colorado Rockies 69-93

Let’s kick it off with the division of the reigning champs, the Dodgers of Los Angeles. OF Joc Pederson and UTL Enrique Hernandez highlight guys that departed from L.A., but with the return of 3B Justin Turner and the addition of Trevor Bauer, the rich got richer. RHP Trevor Bauer joins a rotation that’ll see Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urías, Dustin May, David Price, and Tony Gonsolin get starts! With the depth of the Dodgers rotation, they’ll be set for the adjustment back to 162 games, while Bauer may not get his wish of starting on short rest. The offense for LAD remains largely the same, with OFs Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger headlining a deep lineup. Look for Gavin Lux to establish himself as the everyday 2nd Basemen, garnering NL Rookie of the Year hype.

While I expect another division title for the Dodgers, the division foe Padres may be a top 3 team in baseball. Rather than mope about being in a division with the Dodgers, A.J. Preller was aggressive this offseason and added tons of pitching, such as RHP Yu Darvish, LHP Blake Snell, and RHP Joe Musgrove. Those three, as well as RHPs Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, LHP Adrian Morejon, and top prospect LHP MacKenzie Gore make up an elite rotation. The bullpen remains solid, despite the departure of Kirby Yates and Trevor Rosenthal. Fresh off a $340m payday, SS Fernando Tatis Jr. looks to continue playing his transcendent baseball, while 3B Manny Machado, CF Trent Grisham, IF Jake Cronenworth, and RF Wil Myers look to build off of strong 2020 seasons. Big years from veterans OF Tommy Pham and 1B Eric Hosmer, as well as a spark from the newly acquired Ha-Seong Kim would make this Friar team ridiculous.

Past the top two teams, the NL West tails off a bit. The Giants always find a way to outperform expectations, but in an odd year, I wouldn’t get my hopes up for San Fran. After barely missing out on the last playoff spot in 2020, there is a lot of upside on this roster. Kevin Gausman returns as the top starter, with intriguing options like Aaron Sanchez and Anthony DeSclafani, as well as the immortal Johnny Cueto. The rotation doesn’t excite you, but the Giants could boast a strong bullpen, with sidewinder Tyler Rogers a breakout name to watch. The SF lineup exceeded expectations in 2020 and proceeded to add one of my favorite players in utility man Tommy La Stella. We’re still waiting on Mike Yastrzemski and Donovan Solano to come down to earth and Buster Posey will be back after opting out last season. Young guns like Mauricio Dubon, Joey Bart, and Heliot Ramos all bring more intrigue to, in total, a very intriguing Giants team.

Arizona was a sleeper team for the 2020 season, but ended up sleeping themselves. They finished 25-35, good for the cellar in the NL West, and while I don’t have them there for 2021, it’s hard to see these guys making a run. Zac Gallen is a budding ace, but the rest of the rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Caleb Smith, Luke Weaver, and Merrill Kelly are all meh, while Madison Bumgarner is clearly past his prime and isn’t gonna faze any premier hitters. The bullpen is pretty bare, but there is some upside in the lineup. Ketel Marte was great in 2019 before a subpar 2020, David Peralta has the ability to mash, and who doesn’t love speedster Tim Locastro? The DBacks are developing a top level farm system, but for now, I don’t see a great year for Arizona.

Last in the NL West is the Colorado Rockies, who paid tons of money and got little in return for their superstar 3B. Even with Nolan Arenado, I couldn’t imagine myself being too bullish on the Rockies, who lack essentially everything. German Marquez is a legit arm that is (for the meantime) trapped at Coors Field, then there’s question marks with Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray, and the newly acquired Austin Gomber. Daniel Bard has an awesome story, and isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but the bullpen as a whole is quite weak. Once considered a crown jewel of the league, this Rockies offense is Trevor Story (an impending free agent), Charlie Blackmon, and… nobody?! C.J. Cron could be a decent addition, but guys like Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon, and Sam Hilliard don’t move the needle. How Jeff Bridich still has a job amazes, as this is a bad ball club out in Colorado.

NL WEST BREAKOUT PLAYERS TO WATCH: Edwin Ríos (3B for LAD), Joe Musgrove (SP for SD), Tyler Rogers (RP for SF), Daulton Varsho (UTL for ARI), Brendan Rodgers (IF for COL)

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals 91-71

Milwaukee Brewers 86-76

Chicago Cubs 81-81

Cincinnati Reds 76-86

Pittsburgh Pirates 60-102

Possibly the most wide open division in the sport, the NL Central comes next. Thanks in large part to the guy they traded for from the previous team discussed (Arenado), I have St. Louis taking the division. Starting in the rotation, RHP Jack Flaherty is a young machine who’s 2020 numbers don’t tell the story of how freaking good he is. Behind Flaherty, there’s the ageless wonder in RHP Adam Wainwright, as well as the crafty LHP Kwang-Hyun Kim, and RHP Miles Mikolas. On top of the rotation, they have a stable of arms from the bullpen, such as Giovanny Gallegos and Andrew Miller, as well as fireballers Jordan Hicks and Alex Reyes. In terms of the lineup, it gets exponentially better when you add a talent like Nolan Arenado. Across the diamond from Arenado is slugger 1B Paul Goldschmidt, then there is a herd of high potential guys like SS Paul DeJong, UTL Tommy Edman, and rookie Dylan Carlson. The loss of Kolten Wong at 2B is unfortunate, but not devastating for the lineup. I would, of course, be remiss not to mention the other ageless wonder for the Cardinals, the backstop Yadier Molina. This is a quality ball club and I think strong seasons from the stars, i.e. Flaherty, Arenado, Goldschmidt, can culminate in a division title.

The last team to qualify for the expanded postseason in 2020, the Milwaukee Brewers have the tools to win the division, it’s a matter of key guys stepping up. Brandon Woodruff has continuously improved, becoming one of the better power pitchers in the game. Corbin Burnes had a breakout 2020, while Josh Lindblom, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson are all guys that could post a sub-4 ERA. In the pen, Josh Hader and Devin Williams form the best reliever duo in baseball. The Brew Crew always find a way to get it done on the pitching side, their fate for 2021 lies in the offense. Christian Yelich had a rough 2020, but he should bounce back and is the least of my concerns. IF Keston Hiura has to take a step forward at the plate, OF Lorenzo Cain needs a vintage season, and whoever is playing SS, whether it be Orlando Arcia or Luis Urias, needs to swing it decently. Like I said, Milwaukee can win the division (and go to the playoffs), but I prefer the more put together Cardinals.

Once a budding dynasty, the Chicago Cubs find themselves at a crossroads for this 2021 season. The rotation lost stalwart Jon Lester and CY Young candidate Yu Darvish, leaving them with soft tossers Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, then a bunch of wild cards like Jake Arrieta, Alec Mills, and Shelby Miller. The bullpen for Chicago isn’t flashy, outside of the famed Craig Kimbrel, but has some arms like Brandon Workman and Andrew Chafin that could impress. The offense is still similar to the World Series lineup, sporting 3B Kris Bryant, 1B Anthony Rizzo, SS Javy Baez, C Willson Contreras, and OF Jason Heyward. Ian Happ is an under-the-radar guy that can hit, while Joc Pederson is a can’t miss, home run hitter. The talent in the lineup is there, but the Cubs will struggle to navigate 162 games with the pitching staff they own.

Don’t let the projected 4th place finish fool you, the Reds are a contender for the division. The rotation loses CY Young winner Trevor Bauer, but still has legit top options with Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, as well as possible breakout SPs Tejay Antone and Tyler Mahle. Out of the bullpen, the Reds lost Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley this offseason, but added Sean Doolittle, Noe Ramirez, and Cam Bedrosian. The Cincy lineup had big expectations in 2020, but fell flat in the end. OF Nick Castellanos and IFs Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suarez are obvious bounceback candidates, but it’ll take a resurgence from Joey Votto and steps forward for UTL Nick Senzel and OF Shogo Akiyami for this Reds offense to generate legit hype. The Reds are a team that, in many ways, is similar to the Brewers, but don’t have themselves gamechangers like Yelich or Hader. Whether Sonny Gray and/or Luis Castillo remain with the team after the July 31st deadline will be a story to follow up on.

The clear bottom dwellers of the NL Central, perhaps even the entire National League, are the Pittsburgh Pirates. A bad team in 2020, they’ve gotten even worse, parting with Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove this winter. With Steven Brault hitting the shelf, Chad Kuhl, Mitch Keller, Tyler Anderson, and Jonathan Brubaker will make up the major part of the rotation. After some of the great rotations already mentioned, this is a brutal group, and the bullpen isn’t great either. The lineup does have some intriguing guys, such as ROTY candidate 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes and bounceback candidate OF Bryan Reynolds. With that, it’s still one of the worst lineups in baseball, and in total, this is one of the worst teams in baseball. Sorry Buccos!

NL CENTRAL BREAKOUT PLAYERS TO WATCH: Tommy Edman (UTL for STL), Keston Hiura (IF for MIL), Ian Happ (UTL for CHC), Jonathan India (IF for CIN), David Bednar (RP for PIT)

NL East

Atlanta Braves 98-64

New York Mets 90-72 (WC)

Washington Nationals 82-80

Philadelphia Phillies 77-85

Miami Marlins 73-89

The best division, top to bottom, is the National League East. After three straight division titles, I have the Atlanta Braves capturing a fourth straight. In the rotation, the Braves were bare by the NLCS, a product of injuries and limited depth. They went into free agency and plucked two veteran SPs early in former World Series hero Charlie Morton and the lefty Drew Smyly. Those two join budding stars in LHP Max Fried and RHP Ian Anderson, with stud RHP Mike Soroka hopefully returning to the mound around May following his brutal Achilles injury. The bullpen isn’t phenomenal, as they let Mark Melancon bolt to San Diego and Shane Greene remains a free agent, but it isn’t awful. LHP Will Smith is a reliable back-end option, while fellow lefties A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek are capable of getting the job done. RHP Chris Martin continuing his 2020 success would also go a long way for Atlanta. The offense is loaded with stars such as OF Ronald Acuña Jr., 1B Freddie Freeman, and OF/DH Marcell Ozuna. 2B Ozzie Albies is coming off a tough season, but he’s still one of the best second basemen in the league and a key member of this team. Don’t sleep on former #1 overall pick SS Dansby Swanson or longtime Mets C Travis D’Arnaud, who both had breakout years in 2020.

One of the big offseason winners, the Mets will have to translate that success to the regular season. The starting rotation, even with its injuries, is a top tier unit. RHP Jacob deGrom, in my opinion, is the best pitcher in baseball, with RHP Marcus Stroman as a formidable #2, RHP Taijuan Walker as an intriguing middle-of-the-rotation, and the LHPs Joey Luchessi and David Peterson as serviceable arms. Bring back RHPs Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard from injuries and you have a deep rotation. The bullpen will be without RHP Seth Lugo to begin, but they added RHP Trevor May from Minnesota for high leverage situations and still have Edwin Diaz to close, who is possibly the most overhated player in the MLB. To the lineup, a good group got better with the additions of SS Francisco Lindor and C James McCann. OF Michael Conforto has the prettiest swing in baseball and is entering a contract year, so expect big things from him. Former NL Rookie of the Year recipient 1B Pete Alonso needs to get back on track after a disappointing 2020 campaign. This is an incredibly balanced lineup with sluggers like Alonso and a hit machine in Jeff McNeil, so expect a big year across the board from the New York lineup. In total, the Mets have the makeup of a championship-caliber team, it’s a matter of the bullpen performing and overcoming the curse of… being the Mets.

The defending *162 game season* champs, the Washington Nationals are coming off a title hangover in 2020. The rotation is still talented, but not without its questions. Ace RHP Max Scherzer had a down year for his standards, RHP Stephen Strasburg battled the injury bug, and LHP Patrick Corbin was iffy. They all have positive track records that make me believe they’ll bounce back, with veteran LHP Jon Lester and perhaps RHP Joe Ross finishing off the rotation. The bullpen is vastly improved from their title run, adding LHP Brad Hand and RHP Will Harris (last season), while getting strong improvement from RHP Tanner Rainey. The lineup never truly replaced 3B Anthony Rendon, but it added sluggers Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber to the equation in 2021. OF Juan Soto is a leading MVP candidate (hint! hint!) and SS Trea Turner is one of the best middle infielders in the sport, so big contributions from 1B Josh Bell and/or OF Kyle Schwarber would go a long way in Washington’s hunt for a playoff spot. In a different division, the Nationals would be much more well-suited to win 90+ games, but in the gauntlet that is the NL East, I have the Nationals on the outside looking in.

The Phillies haven’t made the postseason since 2011 and it’ll be tough to get back there in 2021. The top of the rotation is nice, with RHPs Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler serving as the 1-2 punch. Behind them, Zach Eflin, Matt Moore, Vince Velasquez, and all other SP candidates have major question marks about their performance. The Phillies bullpen was horrendous in 2020, so they made a conscious effort to improve upon that group in the offseason. RHP Archie Bradley and LHP Jose Alvarado are each good additions, but don’t expect this bullpen to be in the same sentence as “one of the best.” OF Bryce Harper and C J.T. Realmuto are the guys you first think of in the Philly offense, but don’t sleep on young 3B Alec Bohm. Another productive year from Bohm, continued improvement from 1B Rhys Hoskins, and production from outfielders not named Bryce Harper will be important for Philadelphia to make a run. It’s possible, but I don’t think the Phillies have the pitching to make it out of the NL East.

Following a miraculous postseason run in 2020, it’ll be interesting to see where the Marlins go from here. The Marlins have a talented young rotation with RHPs Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Sixto Sanchez at the forefront. The bullpen doesn’t have any standout names, but a number of those guys in the Miami bullpen can get it done, such as John Curtiss, Dylan Floro, and Anthony Bass. No superstars appear in the Marlins lineup, but OF Starling Marte has been a consistently solid player during his time in the bigs. OF Adam Duvall, who was let go of by Atlanta this offseason, will have a shot to show off his skills on a regular basis and has flashed some special ability. Young C Jorge Alfaro needs to prove himself to keep his job, while fellow youngster Jazz Chisholm will have an opportunity to be the everyday 2B. The Marlins have a positive future outlook, but that success likely won’t come in 2021.

NL EAST BREAKOUT PLAYERS TO WATCH: Cristian Pache (OF for ATL), David Peterson (LHP for NYM), Carter Kieboom (IF for WSH), Adam Haseley (OF for PHI), Jazz Chisholm (IF for MIA)

AL West

Houston Astros 94-68

Los Angeles Angels 84-78

Oakland Athletics 83-79

Seattle Mariners 75-87

Texas Rangers 66-96

Hate them all you want, the Houston Astros are a good ballclub. The 2020 regular season was uneven, but the Astros were a single game away from another World Series berth. The loss of Justin Verlander for the entire season hurts, as does the injury to LHP Framber Valdez, but the Astros have depth to their rotation. RHP Zack Greinke is a steady force, RHP Lance McCullers has phenomenal stuff, and younger guys like Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy have shown potential. RHP Jake Odorizzi is the wild card, if he’s in shape and throwing well, this rotation will be plenty fine. The bullpen isn’t as lockdown without a healthy Roberto Osuna and others, but RHP Ryan Pressly has stepped up as a quality late inning reliever and there are plenty of arms that surely someone will break through. Losing a player as good as George Springer would hurt any team, but the Astros have the lineup depth to make due with his departure. Basically the whole lineup slumped during the 2020 regular season, but the starpower of 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman, SS Carlos Correa, and OF/DHs Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez is ridiculous. Mix in former top prospect OF Kyle Tucker, this is a really good lineup and a really good team.

It has been too long since Mike Trout has been in the postseason, so as a fan of baseball, you should be rooting for the Angels to do well. When it comes down to the team itself, this is a talented bunch that has simply underperformed as of late. The rotation still lacks the true ace they’ve been yearning for, but RHP Dylan Bundy has transformed into a good pitcher, RHP Griffin Canning has front-of-the-line stuff, LHPs Jose Quintana and Andrew Heaney are both serviceable, then there is Shohei Ohtani. If Ohtani can recapture his success from 2018, this is a solid rotation. My primary concern for the Angels is the bullpen, which added RHP Raisel Iglesias and LHP Alex Claudio, but is still super bare. I’d love to see Angels GM Perry Minasian try to add Shane Greene to bolster the pen because as it stands, this is a really weak unit. The lineup isn’t the issue, with CF Mike Trout and 3B Anthony Rendon as prime MVP candidates, 2B David Fletcher as an elite contact hitter, and the upside of 1B Jared Walsh and C Max Stassi. José Iglesias is a defensive downgrade at SS for the Halos (from Andrelton Simmons), but could be a big upgrade at the dish if he performs similarly to his output in 2020. DH Shohei Ohtani has been lighting up Spring Training, so I’d chalk up 2020 as a fluke and expect 2018/2019 offensive numbers for the two-way phenom. I expect the Angels to be active at the deadline, and when it comes down to it, the bullpen closing games out is what will determine the fate of this Halos team.

NOTE: The Angels signed RHP Steve Cishek and LHP Tony Watson to bolster the bullpen.

The A’s will probably exceed these expectations like they always find a way to do, however I just really don’t see the greatness in this team. The hype around the rotation baffles me, RHP Chris Bassitt has been good, but he’s not an ace, while inconsistencies have been prevalent for RHP Frankie Montas and LHP Sean Manaea. I like the stuff that LHP Jesus Luzardo has, but this rotation, as a whole, shouldn’t be talked about like it’s tiers above the Angels. The bullpen, on the other hand, is phenomenal. The loss of closer Liam Hendriks is unfortunate, but RHP Trevor Rosenthal should fill that void, and to be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if every regular in the bullpen has a sub 4.00 ERA. When guys like RHP Lou Trivino and LHP Adam Kolarek are low on the totem pole of a bullpen, you know you have a great bullpen. The lineup has talent, but I question if it has the consistency. Corner infielders Matt Chapman and Matt Olson are both elite defenders, but strike out way too much and have to find a greater level of consistency for me to trust them. The acquisition of SS Elvis Andrus is a head scratcher, as he hasn’t been very good in years and just clogs the lineup. For all of my negativity, I am very high on both C Sean Murphy and OF Mark Canha. Each of them have the ability to be in the upper echelon of their respective positions and will be essential for this Athletics lineup. They always find a way to exceed the expectations, but I am very wary and hesitant to pull the trigger on the 2021 Oakland A’s.

By all accounts, a 27-33 record was a successful year for the Seattle Mariners in 2020. The rotation is mixed with solid veterans like LHPs Marco Gonzales and James Paxton, youngsters LHP Justus Sheffield and RHP Justin Dunn, and the crafty LHP Yusei Kikuchi somewhere in between. It’s a high upside, low floor kind of group, so it’ll be interesting to see how this group performs. The bullpen lost the trio of RHPs Dan Altavilla, Taylor Williams, and Austin Adams at the deadline, and as it stands, the group is pretty bare. RHP Rafael Montero is expected to be one of their top relievers and he’s been roughed up in Spring Training, which doesn’t inspire confidence. 3B Kyle Seager has been the mainstay in the lineup, with veteran OF Mitch Haniger and young guys like 2020 AL Rookie of the Year CF Kyle Lewis, OF Taylor Trammell, UTL Ty France, and 1B Evan White filling out the roster. SS J.P. Crawford and the aforementioned Trammell are two guys to monitor, as both have had their fair share of hype and have struggled at different points, Crawford in the bigs and Trammell in the minors. Superstar prospect OFs Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are on the horizon, as is a bright future, but the time isn’t now for the Seattle Mariners.

The Texas Rangers were bad in 2020 and got worse for the 2021 season. The rotation bid farewell to Lance Lynn, leaving them with promising RHP Dane Dunning, inconsistent RHPs Kyle Gibson and Mike Foltynewicz, and then not much else. The bullpen will be without RHP Jose Leclerc (Tommy John), leading them to rely on RHPs Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush (yes, that Matt Bush!) in high leverage situations. The three true outcome king OF Joey Gallo looks to bounce back from an odd 2020, while non-tendered OF David Dahl also hopes to regain his stroke in 2021. Past those two, Willie Calhoun was once a decently touted prospect and UTL Isiah Kiner Falefa is a gold glove recipient. Enjoy the new stadium and its amenities … because the product on the field won’t be too pleasing.

AL WEST BREAKOUT PLAYERS TO WATCH: Myles Straw (OF for HOU), Chris Rodriguez (RHP [SP/RP] for LAA), Sean Murphy (C for OAK), Dylan Moore (UTL for SEA), Dane Dunning (RHP for TEX)

AL Central

Chicago White Sox 94-68

Minnesota Twins 90-72 (WC)

Cleveland Indians 84-78

Kansas City Royals 76-86

Detroit Tigers 67-95

The White Sox returned to the playoffs in 2020 and weren’t satisfied with a first round exit, proceeding to make more moves this offseason. The ace of the rotation is RHP Lucas Giolito, with newly acquired RHP Lance Lynn as a great #2. LHP Dallas Keuchel isn’t a CY Young caliber pitcher anymore, but he’s still plenty effective, while RHP Dylan Cease and LHP Carlos Rodon are both toss-ups. The bullpen was already good in 2020 and should get better in 2021 with the addition of RHP Liam Hendriks and (hopefully) full seasons from flamethrowers RHP Michael Kopech and LHP Garrett Crochet. The lineup will sorely miss OF/DH Eloy Jiménez for the majority of the season, and how they replace him will be something to look for, but they have enough depth in the lineup to get by. 1B Jose Abreu is the reigning AL MVP, Yasmani Grandal is one of the best catchers in baseball, CF Luis Robert showed promise during his rookie season, and 2B Nick Madrigal is a viable 2021 AL ROTY candidate (hint! hint!). If SS Tim Anderson walks a little more and if 3B Yoán Moncada plays more like he did in 2019 than 2020, the sky's the limit. Watch out for the ChiSox in 2021.

I opted against taking them to win the division, but don’t get it twisted, I’m a fan of this Twins team. The rotation isn’t their strong suit, but they have RHP Kenta Maeda coming off a career year, RHP Jose Berrios who has been destined to breakout at some point, then some high upside, high risk arms in RHPs Michael Pineda, Matt Shoemaker, and LHP J.A. Happ. Trevor May departed from the Minnesota bullpen, but with the addition of RHP Alex Colome and the return of LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP Tyler Duffey, and swingman RHP Randy Dobnak, the bullpen is solid. The lineup is the bread and butter for this team, deep with sluggers from ageless DH Nelson Cruz to 3B Josh Donaldson to IF Miguel Sano. The OF lost Eddie Rosario, but still have world class athlete CF Byron Buxton, German masher Max Kepler, as well as prospect Alex Kirilloff waiting on the wings. Not to be overlooked, SS Andrelton Simmons brings much needed defense at the 6 spot on defense. They have their postseason woes, but we’ll get there when we get there because this ballclub can hit with the best of ‘em.

If Cleveland’s owners were willing to retain their top talent and spend a little bit, these guys could be total World Series contenders, but as they are constructed now, I have them firmly in 3rd in the race for the AL Central. Even after trading several high-end pitchers over the last few years, the rotation is still good. RHP Shane Bieber is coming off an other-worldly 2020 season, with RHPs Zach Plesac, Triston McKenzie, and Aaron Civale as reinforcements. Former Padres LHP Logan Allen and RHP Cal Quantrill are both fighting for that final rotation spot, so that’ll be a storyline to watch. The bullpen is hard to project, as RHP James Karinchak looks like a stud, RHP Emmanuel Clase has limitless potential, and LHP Oliver Perez doesn’t age. Past them, we’ll see how the pen performs. Shipping off SS Francisco Lindor hurts mightily, but they still have 3B Jose Ramirez (for now). After him, there’s little consistency, as OF Eddie Rosario looks to bounce back from 2020, while guys like OF/DH Josh Naylor and IF Andres Gimenez have lots to prove at the big league level. The pitching could be playoff-caliber, but this shapes up to be a below average lineup.

A surprise spender this offseason, the Kansas City Royals will be a fun team to watch in 2021. The rotation isn’t stellar, but RHP Brady Singer could emerge as the top option, while LHP Mike Minor hopes a homecoming will spark a career revival. The bullpen won’t be great, but it has arms such as flamethrowing RHP Josh Staumont and former Kansas City legends RHPs Wade Davis and Greg Holland looking for a second act. The lineup really isn’t bad, with OF Andrew Benintendi and 1B/DH Carlos Santana joining underrated UTL Whit Merrifield, HR slugging DH Jorge Soler, and UTL Hunter Dozier to create a formidable offense. SS Adalberto Mondesi has to improve at the plate, but he’ll always have value with his incredible speed on the base paths. KC may not make much important noise this year, but they’ll be plenty respectable.

Bottom of the AL Central, but with a path to success on the horizon, the Detroit Tigers will look at 2021 as another developmental year. LHP Matt Boyd looked lost in 2020 (and effectively tanked his value), RHPs Julio Teheran and Jose Urena are nothing more than mediocre fillers, then there are the youngsters LHP Tarik Skubal and RHP Casey Mize. Both Skubal and Mize had up and down debuts in the MLB and in 2021, Detroit hopes they can each iron out some issues and find some consistency in their young careers. There isn’t much to look at in the Tiger bullpen, except former ROTY RHP Michael Fulmer, who has had a large fall from grace after Tommy John. The lineup is full of guys looking to jump start their career and possibly be flipped at the deadline, such as OF Nomar Mazara, C Wilson Ramos, and 2B Jonathan Schoop. Tigers legend 1B/DH Miguel Cabrera is still around, but he’s on his last legs and has struggled to stay healthy. There is intrigue in the starting rotation, a group that could be the class of baseball if their prospects develop right, but the team as a whole has a long way to go.

AL CENTRAL BREAKOUT PLAYERS TO WATCH: Nick Madrigal (2B for CWS), Alex Kirilloff (OF for MIN), Cal Quantrill (RHP for CLE), Brady Singer (RHP for KC), Akil Baddoo (OF for DET)

AL East

New York Yankees 96-66

Tampa Bay Rays 88-74 (WC)

Toronto Blue Jays 83-79

Boston Red Sox 74-88

Baltimore Orioles 63-99

The last of the six divisions, the Yankees are the favorite to take the division title. The rotation is led by the $300m+ man RHP Gerrit Cole, who was as good as advertised in his debut season for New York. After Cole, there are bounceback candidates such as RHPs Corey Kluber, Domingo German, and Jameson Taillon. Young RHP Deivi Garcia should get some innings, as well as RHP Luis Severino after he fully recovers from Tommy John. There are plenty of arms for the Yankees rotation, it’s a matter of a couple of the guys stepping up and pitching to their potential. The Yanks bullpen might not be quite as lethal in years past, but it remains solid. LHP Aroldis Chapman is still one of the most dominant relievers, RHP Chad Green has proved himself to be a capable late inning option, and RHP Darren O’Day is one of the funkiest pitchers in the game. LHPs Zack Britton and Justin Wilson getting healthy will be important for the bullpen. When healthy, i.e. with OF Aaron Judge and OF/DH Giancarlo Stanton on the field, the Bronx Bombers have maybe the best lineup in baseball. Retaining 2B DJ LeMahieu was important, as will be getting C Gary Sanchez to hit like it’s 2016 or 2017. Navigating the injury bug, as 1B Luke Voit and 3B/OF Miguel Andujar join the aforementioned pitchers on the IL already, is the key for this team. 2020 wasn’t a great year for the Yanks, but they’re a top 3 team in baseball when they’re healthy.

The reigning AL Champs wheeled and dealed this offseason, but remain a viable contender. The rotation lost longtime stars LHP Blake Snell and RHP Charlie Morton, but still have the hard-throwing RHP Tyler Glasnow atop the rotation. Southpaw Ryan Yarbrough looks to take another step forward, while the Rays hope that reclamation projects RHPs Chris Archer, Michael Wacha, and LHP Rich Hill can have success. Prospects Luis Patiño, Shane McClanahan, and Brent Honeywell wait in the wings for the rotation. The bullpen was also shuffled and stud RHP Nick Anderson will be out for several months, but the Rays bullpen always performs. RHP Pete Fairbanks is a guy to look for to step up and fill Anderson’s role, with RHPs Diego Castillo, Chaz Roe, and Ryan Thompson as other quality arms. The lineup isn’t sexy, but they get the job done and get much better if OF Randy Arozarena somewhat replicates his postseason success. 1B Ji-Man Choi is a steady middle of the lineup presence, DH Austin Meadows can rake, and IF Brandon Lowe has been great the past two seasons. Not to be forgotten, the #1 prospect in baseball, SS Wander Franco, could join the big league team this year and have an instant impact. The Rays aren’t all that on paper, but they’ve proven that they can perform without big names.

I’d love to see the Jays back in the playoffs in 2021, but the depth in the AL and certain flaws make it tough for me to think they will. LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu has proven himself as an ace, but the starting pitching behind him is horrific. LHP Robbie Ray is as erratic as they come, RHP Tanner Roark is nothing more than an innings eater, and RHP Ross Stripling is a 4/5 starter. If LHP Steven Matz can perform like his first full season in the bigs (3.40 ERA in 132.1) and inexperienced, but touted RHP Nate Pearson harnesses his elite fastball and his stuff, this rotation won’t be as horrid as I think it will be. The bullpen might be worse, as RHP Kirby Yates’ injury leaves the Jays without a proven and trustworthy arm. RHPs Jordan Romano and Rafael Dolis are fine, but they’ll have to improve the bullpen at the deadline to be a serious threat. With all this pessimism out, the Blue Jays have a lethal lineup. They added star CF George Springer and bounceback candidate IF Marcus Semien to a lineup with tons of power, namely OF/DH Teoscar Hernandez and IF/DH Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto, and baseball as a whole, needs a full healthy season for SS Bo Bichette, as he’s one of the best and most electric talents the league has to offer. I buy the hype on offense for the Blue Jays, but the pitching is too dreadful for the playoffs.

Alex Cora returns at the helm after an abysmal (but, predictable for those who read my predictions last year) 2020 campaign for the Red Sox. The rotation was among the worst in baseball last year and still won’t have ace LHP Chris Sale to begin the year. RHP Nathan Eovaldi isn’t a front of the line arm, RHP Garrett Richards is solid, but injury prone, while LHP Martin Perez has been average at best. A clean bill of health for Sale and LHP Eddie Rodriguez are essential for this rotation to be decent. Side armed RHP Adam Ottovino joins RHP Matt Barnes as the top relief options, with LHPs Josh Taylor and Darwinzon Hernandez as names to watch. The lineup is still pretty good, as UTL Enrique Hernandez, then OFs Hunter Renfroe and Franchy Cordero are the big new additions. SS Xander Bogaerts is an elite hitter, DH J.D. Martinez has been an elite hitter outside of 2020, and 3B Rafael Devers is an XBH machine. Perhaps a better lineup with a certain Mookie Betts, the lineup isn’t what will hold the Sox back, it’s the pitching.

Baltimore has a long way to go from the AL East cellar. LHP John Means seems to be the best starting pitcher for the O’s, and he’s projected to have an ERA north of 4.00. RHP Matt Harvey hasn’t been the same since 2015, so it’s hard to see him regaining his feel. The bullpen doesn’t really have any names either, although LHPs Paul Fry and Tanner Scott could have sneaky success. The Orioles offense gladly welcomes back it’s top hitter Trey Mancini, who missed 2020 after battling Cancer. Mancini is back, 1B/OF Ryan Mountcastle will have an opportunity to play his first full season, and 3B Maikel Franco looks to recapture his success from 2015. Top prospect C Adley Rutschmann may get his first taste of big league action this year, but don’t expect it to be in meaningful games. Trey Mancini is back and that in itself is a colossal victory for the Orioles in 2021.

AL EAST BREAKOUT PLAYERS TO WATCH: Jameson Taillon (RHP for NYY), Pete Fairbanks (RHP for TBR), Steven Matz (LHP for TOR), Franchy Cordero (OF for BOS), Maikel Franco (3B for BAL)

NL WC: Padres over Mets

The Mets, in theory, are one of the best suited teams in baseball for a one game series. Jacob deGrom on the mound is a big advantage, but this is a great Padres lineup that will work his pitch count and try to get Luis Rojas to go to his bullpen as soon as possible. When that happens, that’s when the Padres can really pounce and go off offensively. Whether it’s Blake Snell or Yu Darvish, the Padres will have a stud on the mound. When it comes down to it, I tend to trust the Padres bullpen more than the Mets and the Mets seemingly always find a way to choke, so I’m taking the Padres.

NLDS: Padres over Dodgers in 5

The Dodgers won the division, but the Padres won 95 games and battled the Dodgers during their regular season matchup. The pitching is almost dead even, both teams have star-studded rotations and talented bullpens. The Dodgers may have a slight offensive edge, but the Padres have transcendent talents in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado that can flip a switch just like Betts, Bellinger, and co. The Dodgers finally got their World Series in 2020, but with a stiff NLDS opponent in San Diego, I’m gonna make the homer pick and have my Friars advance to the NLCS.

NLDS: Braves over Cardinals in 4

The winners of the East and Central, respectively, this should be a good series. The Braves are probably the better team, but the Cardinals always come to play in October. I like the Cardinals pitching, namely Jack Flaherty and Kwang-Hyun Kim, but I like Ronald Acuña Jr., Freddie Freeman, and the Braves offense more. Atlanta won’t let it get to Game 5 and allow the Cardinals to repeat what they did in 2019, the Braves move on.

NLCS: Braves over Padres in 6

Acuña Jr. vs Tatis Jr.? Sign me up! The Padres have the upperhand in the pitching department, but the Braves offense can get super hot. The Padres have several guys that have deep postseason experience, such as Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Eric Hosmer, but this team as a whole is young and inexperienced. The Braves had a heartbreaking NLCS loss last year, I think they’ll be on a mission to get by it this year. The Dodgers series is gonna take a lot out of the Padres and the Braves can take advantage of that, moving on to the World Series.

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AL WC: Rays over Twins

The Rays are basically residents in the Wild Card game, while Minnesota just hasn’t made it past the first round (WC or DS) in ages. Tampa Bay can mix and match with their pitching to limit Minnesota, while I honestly can’t get past the Twins postseason woes. I liked the Twins last year in the postseason, but I’ll need them to actually win before I’ll believe in them again. Give me the defending AL champs.

ALDS: Yankees over Rays in 4

The Rays have arms, but they don’t have the experience of Charlie Morton or Blake Snell, which really hurts against the big bad Yankees. I have the Rays nabbing one game, but I think the Yankees bats will show up and avoid a decisive Game 5.

ALDS: Astros over White Sox in 4

The White Sox have a nice front 3 rotation for the postseason, but they lack experience vs a battle tested Astros team. The Houston lineup turns it up a notch in October, so it’ll take big performances pitching and hitting wise for Chicago to pull this out. Look for Carlos Correa to make the most out of what could be his last postseason with the Astros, he’ll be at the forefront of an offensive onslaught for Houston.

ALCS: Yankees over Astros in 6

We didn’t get to see these newfound rivals square off in 2020, so they need to match up in the postseason for 2021. Two potent offenses, the key factor is the pitching, which the Yankees likely have the advantage in. We don’t know how great the SP depth is for NYY, but Gerrit Cole getting multiple opportunities on the mound is massive, a difference from the last time these teams faced off in the ALCS. That series ended with Aroldis Chapman staring at a Jose Altuve walk off in Game 7, but this time, the Bronx Bombers blitz the Astros and wrap it up in 6 games.

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WS: Braves over Yankees in 6

This was my World Series matchup at the beginning of the year last year and it didn’t come to fruition, so I’ll try it again this year. Two offenses on fire, the Yankees have the best overall pitcher (Gerrit Cole), while the Braves probably have the better total rotation. This is really a coin flip, both teams are phenomenal, but I think the Braves are SLIGHTLY better suited in the pitching category deep into a series. An impending free agent (at least as of now), 1B Freddie Freeman comes up clutch in the biggest series of his 10+ year career in Atlanta, captures World Series MVP, and becomes a world champion.

Award/Stat Predictions

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AL MVP: Aaron Judge (OF for NYY)

AL MVP Runner Ups: Mike Trout (OF for LAA), George Springer (OF for TOR)

NL MVP: Juan Soto (OF for WSH)

NL MVP Runner Ups: Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF for ATL), Mookie Betts (OF for LAD)

Aaron Judge’s sole full season (155 games) in 2017, so health permitting, Judge is an MVP-caliber player over an entire season. Mike Trout is Mike Trout, so he’ll be in that conversation, and then if you want some deeper insight into my admiration for George Springer, check out this whole article about him.

In the NL, Juan Soto has ascended to arguably the best pure hitter in baseball and would’ve had MVP hype in 2020 if a COVID positive test didn’t slow him down. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Soto will always be pitted against each other for the entirety of their career, so I’ll peg Acuña to be #2 for 2021. Mookie Betts has 3 top 3 MVP finishes, I like that track record.

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AL CY: Shane Bieber (SP for CLE)

AL CY Runner Up: Gerrit Cole (SP for NYY)

NL CY: Walker Buehler (SP for LAD)

NL CY Runner Up: Jacob DeGrom (SP for NYM)

After a monster 2020 season on the heels of theredshirt.blog picking him to win the CY Young, I’m a Bieber believer and think he’ll be able to replicate his numbers again in 2021. Gerrit Cole had a sub 3.00 ERA in 2020 and people felt it was a disappointment, maybe he’ll disappoint more with a top 2 CY Young finish.

Walker Buehler was also my 2020 CY Young (and MVP) pick, and while Buehler wasn’t bad, he wasn’t top of the league good. The depth of the Dodgers may limit his innings, but gaudy stats can land Walker the award. Jacob deGrom won’t bow out easily, as my #1 pitcher in baseball should squarely be in the hunt for another CY Young trophy.

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AL ROY: Nick Madrigal (2B for CWS)

AL ROY Runner Up: Randy Arozarena (OF for TBR)

NL ROY: Dylan Carlson (OF for STL)

NL ROY Runner Up: Ian Anderson (SP for ATL)

I’m as big of a Jake Cronenworth fan as you’ll find and you can see the resemblance in Nick Madrigal. Madrigal is an even more of a pure contact hitter that’ll get on base at a high clip, so for an award that’s always tough to project, I’ll take the guy that’ll hit .300 and get consistent ABs for a great team. Randy Arozarena stole the hearts of baseball fans last postseason, but I’m interested to see what kind of pace he can maintain to actually take home the award.

Carlson was my pick for ROTY last year and with eligibility remaining, as well as some flashes of greatness, I’ll take him for this year. Ian Anderson was thrusted into high leverage situations for Atlanta last year and I expect him to continue to progress and develop into one of the better pitchers in the sport.

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ERA Leader: Shane Bieber (CLE), 2.34.

WHIP Leader: Gerrit Cole (NYY), 0.91.

Saves Leader: Liam Hendriks (CWS), 38.

AVG Leader: DJ LeMahieu (NYY), .334.

OBP Leader: Juan Soto (WSH), .444.

OPS Leader: Juan Soto (WSH), 1.094.

HR Leader: Juan Soto (WSH), 51 HR.

2B Leader: Anthony Rendon (LAA), 55 2B.

3B Leader: Adalberto Mondesi (KC), 11 3B.

SB Leader: Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL), 39 SB.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Will the Dodgers repeat as champs? Will someone else hoist the World Series trophy? Can Juan Soto really be THAT good in 2021? Let me know in the comments down below!

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