Pac-12 College Football Preview

For folks like me, Christmas doesn’t come on December 25th. Rather, Christmas is the first college football Saturday of the year, when I can wake up to ESPN’s College Gameday, flip over to Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff, and hours later conclude my day with some good, old-fashioned Pac-12 after dark. The 2022 college football season is nearly upon us, so this week I will be putting out predictions for each power five conference. After starting off with the Big Ten, we move on west to the Pac-12.

* denotes division winner

** denotes conference champion

Note: Yes, there are technically no official divisions anymore in the Pac-12, but based on scheduling this remains the most logical way to format

North

Oregon Ducks (8-4, 6-3)

There are a lot of new faces in Eugene, starting with head coach Dan Lanning, the mastermind behind the vaunted 2021 Georgia defense. Along with their SEC coach, Oregon has SEC transfer QB Bo Nix heading west from Auburn. Since being a highly-regarded true freshman, Nix has been disappointing and hopes to rejuvenate his stock in the Pac-12. He’ll be the starter, but don’t be surprised if talented backup Ty Thompson is thrust into action at some point. After tons of RB stability over the last few seasons, CJ Verdell is now a pro and Travis Dye is at USC. Sophomore RB Byron Cardwell doesn’t have a ton of experience, but has the talent to take over as the lead back. The WRs have shown flashes, it’s just a matter of if it's someone like Troy Franklin or Kris Hutson taking a big step forward. What Oregon does have going for them is a veteran offensive line, where all five starters return from last year’s squad. The Ducks defense takes a hit without pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, but it remains stout. LBs Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe are young, but two of the best ‘backers in the conference. As well, cornerback could be a major strength for Oregon with the arrival of Colorado transfer Christian Gonzalez and the continued development of former five star Dontae Manning. On paper, Oregon should be able to navigate the conference rather easily, but uncertainty in terms of QB play could tack on a forgettable loss or two. Their non-conference schedule is rigorous, starting off with a neutral sight showdown against the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs and concluding with the pesky BYU Cougars in Eugene.

Washington State Cougars (7-5, 5-4)

After a very public and bitter falling out with ex-head coach Nick Rolovich, Jake Dickert is officially at the helm with a new QB. That QB is Cameron Ward, a former FCS standout at Incarnate Word. I doubt that Ward will throw 47 TDs in the Pac-12, but that’s the kind of skill he showcased last year at UIW. For as much as I love Ward, I am concerned about the weapons around him. Reliable RB Max Borghi is gone, as is backup Deon McIntosh, and top WRs Calvin Jackson Jr. and Travell Harris are also out of town. Coming off of a 470 yard season last year, expect WR De’Zhaun Stribling to get targeted early and often. The defense might not be elite, but it is very experienced with nine projected starters being upperclassmen. The primary pass rushers will be Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson, who combined for 9.5 sacks last season. S Armani Marsh is the anchor in the secondary and should be in contention for All-Pac-12 honors. If the Cougars can pull off a week two upset at Wisconsin, the sky's the limit for this team.

Oregon State Beavers (6-6, 5-4)

For the first time since 2013, the Oregon State Beavers made a bowl game in 2021. In 2022, the program outlook and expectations are growing brighter for Jonathan Smith and his team. The QB will once again be Chance Nolan, who is looking to solidify himself as more of a consistent aerial threat. The ground game will be without explosive RB BJ Baylor, but the talk around Corvallis is that true freshman Damien Martinez is poised to emerge as the starter and take the Pac-12 by storm. The defense wasn’t great last season, but should improve with a full season of Trent Bray as defensive coordinator and with the reinforcements of Florida transfer LB Andrew Chatfield Jr. and DE Isaac Hodgins (missed all of 2021 with injury). Along with the return of LB Omar Speights, S Jaydon Grant, and CB Rejzohn Wright, the Beavers could quietly have a solid year on defense. Schedule wise, I don’t envy Oregon State for starting off against Group of 5 foes Boise State and Fresno State, nor do I envy their back-to-back games against USC and Utah. As is the case in the Pac-12 and across the country, QB play will dictate how successful the 2022 Oregon State Beavers will be.

Washington Huskies (5-7, 3-6)

2021 was a tumultuous year for the Huskies, resulting in the firing of Jimmy Lake and the hiring of Fresno State’s Kalen DeBoer as their new head coach. After initial rumors of DeBoer bringing along QB Jake Haener with him from Fresno, it ultimately was Indiana transfer QB Michael Penix Jr. that found himself in Seattle. Penix has shown flashes of being an electric playmaker, but he’s torn his ACL twice and looked flat-out bad in 2021. It would not surprise me if last year’s starter, redshirt sophomore Dylan Morris, or former four-star Sam Huard made a few starts. Regardless of who is throwing the ball, sophomore WRs Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Taj Davis should be a respectable pass-catching trio. Defense is rarely, if ever, an issue for Washington football and that should continue to be the case in 2022. A bounceback season for DE Zion Tupuola-Fetui would be huge, considering how productive he was as a second-team All-American in 2020. The linebackers should be solid with Cam Bright and Carson Bruener, as well as the eventual return of the uber-productive Edefuan Ulofoshio. The DBs may be a weak spot on the defense without CBs Trent McDuffie and Kyler Gordon, both of whom may start early on for their respective NFL teams. In total, there are pieces on this Washington team, and I really like Kalen DeBoer, but I’m not sure that bowling is in their future for this season.

Stanford Cardinal (4-8, 3-6)

Stanford has been trending down over the past few seasons and possibly hit rock bottom when they finished 3-9 last year, their worst showing since 2006. QB Tanner McKee is back under center for the Cardinal, coming off of an up-and-down 2021 that culminated in 2,327 yards and a 15/7 TD to INT ratio. Lead RB Austin Jones dipped south to USC and secondary option Nathaniel Peat is now at Missouri, leaving EJ Smith with the proverbial keys to the RB room. Top WR Elijah Higgins is back, as is TE Ben Yurosek, who should be the focal point of the offense. If there is any school that can get the most out of a TE, it’s Stanford. On the defensive side of the ball, it’s shaky. CB Kyu Blu Kelly is one of the best defenders in the conference, but the loss of DE Thomas Booker and a large chunk of the 2021 starters is going to sting. Outside of Kelly and S Kendall Williamson, I don’t feel great about the Stanford defense. On paper, the 2022 Stanford Cardinal may be worse than their 2021 counterpart, but I’ll say they have some positive regression and add a win or two this season.

Cal Golden Bears (4-8, 2-7)

After winning eight games in 2019, the Justin Wilcox era has hit a bit of a snag. With a seasoned veteran QB in Chase Garbers at the helm last year, the Golden Bears still couldn’t clinch a bowl berth. Now, they’ll have former Purdue Boilermaker Jack Plummer under center. Plummer has flashed some upside during his three seasons at Purdue (26 TDs to 10 INTs), but was never able to seize consistent playing time as the starter. Around Plummer, the Cal offense loses the majority of its production at WR. Its top returning rusher is RB Damien Moore, who had 517 yards and 6 TDs last season. Needless to say, there is a fair amount of inexperience on this offense, including on the offensive line. Cal finds success, year after year, with a stout defense. The addition of Washington LB Jackson Sirmon makes a good group even better. S Elijah Hicks is in the NFL, but there is some continuity in the secondary with S Daniel Scott and CB Lu-Magia Hearns III (great name!) returning. DE Brett Johnson was expected to be an impact player, but he was recently sidelined for the year with a lower-body injury. Names aside, defense is Justin Wilcox’s bread and butter, so I am confident he’ll have his defense as one of the better units in the Pac-12.

South

USC Trojans** (10-2, 8-1)

No football program in the country has had its infrastructure change as drastically as USC’s has. The former heir of the Bob Stoops’s Oklahoma throne, Lincoln Riley is now the head coach at USC and brings along his QB Caleb Williams. Williams was dynamic as a true freshman, throwing for 21 TDs and rushing for 6 TDs without being the full-time starter. As a Trojan, he can compete for all-conference honors, All-American honors, and possibly even the Heisman Trophy. Your job as a QB is a lot easier when you’re able to throw to the reigning Biletnikoff Award recipient WR Jordan Addison, who transferred from Pittsburgh this spring. The RBs are great too, led by the transfer duo of Travis Dye (Oregon) and Austin Jones (Stanford). The offensive line has a few question marks, but overall, this is one of the best offenses in the country. On the other hand, the defense may have some growing pains. The 2021 Trojans struggled mightily on defense, but new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch should help shore up the unit. Their transfer additions at LB are significant, headlined by former Alabama starter Shane Lee and Arizona State’s Eric Gentry, who was a freshman All-American last season. In the secondary, it’ll be interesting to see what type of role five-star freshman CB Domani Jackson has early on. The 2022 USC Trojans will be the ultimate litmus test for how successful a team built on transfers can be. With the overwhelming talent on offense, I’ll gamble that USC lives up to the hype, wins the Pac-12, and knocks on the door of the College Football Playoff.

Utah Utes* (10-2, 8-1)

In order for USC to ascend to the top of the Pac-12, they’ll have to get by the incumbent champs, the Utah Utes. Coming off of a historically successful 2021 that resulted in a Rose Bowl appearance, Utah has a decent amount of returning production. It starts at QB with Cameron Rising, who was instrumental in Utah getting past early season woes last year. Along with the return of Rising, RB Tavion Thomas figures to carry a big workload coming off of a 1,108 yard and 21 TD season. Swiss army knife WR Britain Covey has moved on, but Utah’s devastating TE duo of Dalton Kincaid and Brant Kuithe are back and ready to terrorize opposing defenses. This team should be capable of winning games both via the aerial attack and pounding the rock. On defense, Kyle Whittingham will sorely miss first-round LB Devin Lloyd, who for my money’s worth was one of the best college defenders I’ve ever seen. Fortunately, CB Clark Phillips III has emerged as a star and could fulfill the role of defensive leader. As well, Florida EDGE transfer Mohamoud Diabate should make an instant impact as a pass rusher. The defense doesn’t have the same amount of proven commodities that it had last season, but it should remain solid. Overall, I see no reason that the Utes won’t return to Las Vegas in December for a shot to defend their Pac-12 crown.

UCLA Bruins (8-4, 5-4)

Briefly, it seemed that we were going to see a new era of UCLA football, the post Dorian Thompson-Robinson era. However, DTR announced his return for a fifth-season, prompting transfer QB Dillon Gabriel to flip his commitment from UCLA, and now we’re here! Thompson-Robinson is an elite athlete that is capable of dicing defenses through the air or on the ground. The issue for DTR is consistency, which he has yet to find over his four years as a Bruin. Who is consistent, however, is RB Zach Charbonnet. In over half of UCLA’s regular season games in 2021, Charbonnet ran for over 100 yards with efficiency. With other RB Brittain Brown gone, expect Charbonnet to get even more carries. The returning receiving production isn’t great with the losses of Kyle Phillips and Greg Dulcich, but Duke transfer WR Jake Bobo could slot in as a respectable WR1. I’m bullish on UCLA’s defense, mainly because of their monster additions on the defensive line. From the portal, they snagged DEs Gabriel and Grayson Murphy from North Texas, who combined for 16 sacks a season ago. Along with some other newcomers, I feel confident that UCLA will put forth a quality defense. UCLA has a cakewalk of a schedule to start their season, leading up to a showdown at the Rose Bowl against Utah. If UCLA manages to win that game, watch out.

Arizona State Sun Devils (5-7, 3-6)

Up with the likes of USC, Arizona State’s roster was drastically altered by the transfer portal. One mobile QB is gone to the bayou in Jayden Daniels, while another in Florida QB Emory Jones has opted for the desert over the swamp. At times, Jones looked like a legit SEC QB. At other times, he looked like a backup. In Tempe, hopefully he’ll be able to unleash his dual-threat ability to the max. Do-it-all RB Rachaad White is a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, but the Sun Devils did well in adding Wyoming RB Xazavian Valladay, a career 3,000 yard rusher, to the squad. Alongside former four-star Daniyel Ngata, the RBs are pretty solid for the Sun Devils. The WRs are dicier, with Bryan Thompson’s 13 catches last season being the highest of all returners. To ignite the pass game, look for talented redshirt sophomore WR Elijhah Badger to break through or Missouri transfer TE Messiah Swinson to emerge as a reliable option. The defense is… weird. Leading sack producer DE B.J. Green is back, but that sack total was only five. DT Omar Norman-Lott is poised to improve in year three and Miami transfer DT Nesta Jade Silvera should be productive (if healthy), but former stalwart DL Jermayne Lole transferred and several other key figures graduated. Despite losing freshman All-American Eric Gentry to USC, the LB corps is solid with fifth-year seniors Kyle Soelle and Merlin Robertson on patrol. The secondary is where it’s real suspect, given that the Sun Devils lose every starter from last season. I’m not full of doom-and-gloom about Arizona State this season, but it’ll be challenging to make a bowl game with the amount of roster turnover and program adversity they’re dealing with.

Arizona Wildcats (4-8, 3-6)

Not that things could get worse for a program that recently lost 20 straight games and lost to their rival by a score of 70-7, things are trending in the right direction for Arizona. New QB Jayden de Laura has Pac-12 experience from his time at Washington State and should be a solid, if not simply competent, option for the Wildcats. What’s really exciting for the Arizona offense is the WRs, headlined by UTEP transfer WR Jacob Cowing. Coming off of a monster season (69 catches for 1,354 yards) in Conference USA, Cowing had his pick of just about any school in the country before settling on Arizona. Along with Cowing is freshman WR Tetairoa McMillan, the highest ranked Arizona commit of all-time according to 247Sports. The offense should be relatively exciting, but the defense is a concern. The Wildcats added DE Hunter Echols from USC and LB Anthony Solomon from Michigan, but I don’t know if they’re enough to offset just how pitiful the defense was in 2021. Arizona has a tricky non-conference schedule with games at San Diego State, then vs Mississippi State and FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. In terms of progress, I think Arizona will be able to at least compete in just about every contest they’re in.

Colorado Buffaloes (3-9, 3-6)

The Buffs are bad. Karl Dorrell’s success in 2020 feels like it was ages ago and I have a hunch it isn’t returning in 2022. Sophomore QB Brendon Lewis is the incumbent, but former Tennessee signal-caller JT Shrout could push for some playing time after missing all of 2021 with an injury. RB Alex Fontenot is an underrated contributor, but it’ll be tough to replace the production of the outgoing Jarek Broussard. Losing Brendan Rice also hurts, leaving Colorado thin and inexperienced at WR. The Buffaloes struggled mightily on defense in 2021, yet may be worse this year considering the loss of enforcer LB Nate Landman and CBs Mekhi Blackmon and Christian Gonzalez. There isn’t a single “gimme” game for Colorado, as they start off with the trio of TCU, Air Force, and Minnesota before conference play begins. I’m sure there are some silver linings to be had in Boulder, but I just don’t see them.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Will Utah repeat as champs? Is USC capable of making the College Football Playoff? How will Bo Nix perform at Oregon? Let me know in the comments below!

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