SEC College Football Preview

For folks like me, Christmas doesn’t come on December 25th. Rather, Christmas is the first college football Saturday of the year, when I can wake up to ESPN’s College Gameday, flip over to Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff, and hours later conclude my day with some good, old-fashioned Pac-12 after dark. The 2022 college football season is nearly upon us, so this week I will be putting out predictions for each power five conference. After starting off with the Big Ten and Pac-12, we move south to the SEC.

* denotes division winner

** denotes conference champion

West

Alabama Crimson Tide** (12-0, 8-0)

The Tide’s roll was stopped at the hands of Georgia in last year’s National Championship, but Alabama will be back and better than ever in 2022. It starts at QB, where reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young will seek to be the first player since 1975 to win the award twice. Alabama also boasts a strong RB room, led by Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs. The WR room isn’t as loaded as it usually is, but Georgia transfer Jermaine Burton is a reliable option and Louisville transfer Tyler Harrell’s world-class speed has led many to call him the 2022 version of Jameson Williams. There might not be five first-rounders on the offensive line like there are some years in Tuscaloosa, but there’s no reason to believe the unit will be a liability. The defense is terrifying, plain and simple. EDGE Will Anderson is the best player in the country and has a strong chance at being the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, provided it isn’t his teammate Bryce Young. The breakout star for Alabama this season will be the man opposite of Anderson, sophomore EDGE Dallas Turner. Turner had 8.5 sacks as a true freshman and could break past the 10 sack mark. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if he out totaled Will Anderson in the sack department, he’s just that good. The addition of LSU transfer CB Elias Ricks will make a deep DB unit even deeper, provided he gets healthy. Week two on the road against Texas will tell us a lot about what the Crimson Tide will look like in 2022. Personally, I can’t wait for Week 6 when Texas A&M heads to Tuscaloosa, as there will certainly be some inspired football played.

Texas A&M Aggies (10-2, 6-2)

Talent wise, Texas A&M is just as good as any team in the country. In order for them to break through, however, they need steady production at QB. After having his 2021 season cut short due to injury, QB Haynes King is back under center in College Station. He was shaky in two games, but he’s a dual-threat guy that has tons of room to grow. Although Isaiah Spiller is gone, RB Devon Achane is a versatile stud, capable of being a bellcow runner and steady option as a pass-catcher. Senior WR Ainias Smith is a bona-fide playmaker, as is true freshman WR Evan Stewart, one of the crown jewels of Texas A&M’s historic 2022 recruiting class. The defensive line will miss DeMarvin Leal, but his departure opens up an opportunity for youngsters Walter Nolen and Shemar Stewart to have an early impact. I really like the playmakers in the secondary, namely senior S Demani Richardson and junior DB Antonio Johnson. The schedule isn’t easy for Texas A&M, as their non-conference slate features a solid Miami team. Above all, the result against Alabama will determine the outcome and success of Texas A&M’s season.

Arkansas Razorbacks (9-3, 5-3)

Coach Sam Pittman took over in Fayetteville during a tumultuous time for the program. Since, he has helped elevate Arkansas into one of the better teams in the conference. Star WR Treylon Burks is gone from last year’s nine win team, but big QB KJ Jefferson is back and set to explode in his senior season. Jefferson is accurate (67.3 comp % in 2021), careful (4 INTs), and makes big time plays with his arm (21 TDs) and legs (664 yards and 6 TDs). If you’re looking for a dark horse Heisman contender, look no further than KJ Jefferson. Jefferson will have a new talented target in the form of WR Jadon Haselwood, an Oklahoma transfer with NFL potential. What may hold the Razorbacks back a bit is the defense, although adding LB Drew Sanders from Alabama out of the portal was one of my favorite moves this offseason. Add in LB Bumper Pool, who has been in college for millions of years, and S Jalen Catalon, a budding sensation in the secondary, and the Arkansas defense could turn out to be solid enough. An SEC schedule is already challenging enough, but Arkansas also has to play group of five powerhouse Cincinnati and also travel to Provo to face off against BYU in the middle of the season. Who cares!? I love KJ Jefferson and have the utmost confidence in the Razorbacks having a great season.

Ole Miss Rebels (8-4, 4-4)

The Lane Train is moving full steam ahead coming off of a 10 win season in Oxford. The heir to QB Matt Corral’s throne is Jaxson Dart, a gunslinging transfer from USC. The numbers aren’t eye-popping (9 TDs, 5 INTs in 6 games), but Dart flashed major potential last year as a true freshman and clearly outplayed Kedon Slovis, who is now at Pitt. His athleticism, arm, and moxy make him a perfect fit for Lane Kiffin to mold into the next big thing. RB Zach Evans, a transfer from TCU, has dealt with his fair share of off-the-field concerns, but is a talented player that could shine in the Kiffin offense. Dontario Drummond’s departure leaves a big hole at WR, but I think returners Jonathan Mingo and Jaylon Robinson can fill the void servicably. USC transfer TE Michael Trigg may also be a top target for his buddy at QB. My concern with the Rebels lies on defense, where the Rebels lose several starters and have a new coordinator. Regardless, S Otis Reese is a playmaker and there are several intriguing transfer options, including EDGE Khari Coleman (TCU) and LB Troy Brown (Central Michigan). There’s never a boring moment with a Lane Kiffin team, so it wouldn’t shock me if Ole Miss both pulled off a big upset (a la Alabama) and then proceeded to drop a game to Vanderbilt. Maybe it isn’t this year, but Jaxson Dart will be one of the best QBs in college football sooner or later.

LSU Tigers (7-5, 3-5)

It wasn’t long ago that Ed Orgeron hoisted the National Championship trophy as the LSU head coach, but now Brian Kelly is at the helm. Kelly has opted to not reveal who is starting at QB, but it will likely be either the ASU transfer Jayden Daniels or redshirt freshman Garrett Nussmeier. Daniels had success early in his career as a dual-threat demon, but he hasn’t progressed like many thought he would. On the other hand, Nussmeier has only 57 career passing attempts to his name at the collegiate level. The RBs are intriguing for LSU, led by Penn State transfer Noah Cain. Cain is an explosive starter that can hopefully get a fresh start in Baton Rouge after struggling to return from injury at Penn State. Don’t forget about John Emery Jr., who missed all of 2021 with academic issues, but is slated to return week three. Depth at WR isn’t abundant, but WR Kayshon Boutte is a future first-round pick who is a nightmare for any corner in the country to cover. The front of the Tigers defense is formidable, led by the duo of DT Maason Smith and EDGE BJ Ojulari. There are tons of new faces in the secondary, including former Ohio State CB Sevyn Banks, who is looking to re-establish himself after having a rocky 2021 season in Columbus. As per usual, there isn’t a lack of talent with this LSU squad. Rather, it’s a matter of putting forth solid QB play and the new puzzle pieces fitting in quickly.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6, 2-6)

Going into year three, it still feels weird that Mike Leach is at Mississippi State. After winning a bowl game last season, Mississippi State brings back the catalyst to its success in QB Will Rogers. Rogers did well in the air raid, throwing for 4,739 yards and tossing 36 TDs. Along with Will’s return is the return of the top two Bulldog RBs, Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson. Leading WR Makai Polk has departed, but the WR room is still sharp with Jaden Walley (628 yards and 6 TDs) and Austin Williams (617 yards and 4 TDs). The offensive line is worth keeping an eye on, considering the loss of first round OT Charles Cross. There are a ton of returners on the defense, but not a ton of standout talent. LB Nathaniel Watson is a steady force in the middle of the field, coming off of a season with 83 tackles and 5 sacks. The schedule in Starkville is tough, as is customary in the SEC. I don’t think they can compete with the likes of Alabama or Georgia, but Mississippi State should be a competitive team in 2022.

Auburn Tigers (4-8, 1-7)

There may not be a more fascinating situation in the country than what’s going on at Auburn. After just one season, it appears Bryan Harsin is already on the hot seat and not in good graces with the boosters on the plains. I’m not sure if Zach Calzada is the QB I’d want to bet my job on, given his strange time at Texas A&M. Calzada looked like a baller against Alabama, but looked more like a backup against most other opponents. The offense will rely on RB Tank Bigsby, who nearly eclipsed 1,110 yards last season on the ground. With Kobe Hudson and Demetris Robertson gone, WR Shedrick Jackson and TE John Samuel Shenker should emerge as top options in the passing game. The defense should be ok, mainly based on their personnel up front. EDGE Derick Hall is a preseason first team All-SEC nominee and has racked up 12.5 sacks as a Tiger. LB Owen Pappoe is a useful piece, as is DL Colby Wooden. No matter, the losses of Zakoby McClain, Smoke Monday, and Roger McCreary will hurt. If the QB play miraculously blossoms, Auburn could ascend closer to eight wins on the season. However, there is too much dysfunction around this program for me to put any faith into Harsin and his squad.

East

Georgia Bulldogs* (11-1, 7-1)

How about them Georgia Bulldogs? They finally broke their 40-year dry spell with a national championship victory last season. Now, the Bulldogs go into defense mode and will try to reclaim the title. Starting at QB, former walk-on Stetson Bennett is back and has fully earned the starting job. I wouldn’t consider him to be one of the best QBs in the sport, but when push comes to shove, the guy gets the job done. The primary running backs in 2021, Zamir White and James Cook, are now in the NFL, leaving RBs Kenny McIntosh and Kendall Milton poised to take on bigger roles. You never want to see a player of WR Jermaine Burton’s caliber transfer to rival Alabama, but the WRs are in fine shape with Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, and Kearis Jackson leading the way. What really bodes well for the Georgia offense is the return of TE Brock Bowers, who led the team in virtually every receiving category as a true freshman last season. On defense, there is great turnover, as to be expected with five Bulldogs being selected in the first round of this year’s draft. Never fear, there is still a boatload of talent, headlined by DT Jalen Carter, a physical specimen on the interior who will likely be a top ten pick in next year’s draft. EDGE Nolan Smith is also a force on the outside and CB Kelee Ringo will likely emerge as one of the best DBs in the country. Even after losing a lot of players, there is still a lot to like about the Georgia Bulldogs. I think they’ll slip up once in the regular season, but comfortably win the division and get another matchup against Alabama in Atlanta.

Tennessee Volunteers (9-3, 5-3)

In the wake of Jeremy Pruitt’s firing and the mass investigation by the NCAA into the football program, Tennessee wasn’t looking too hot. However, the Volunteers won seven games in 2021 and may take another step forward in 2022. In recent years, Tennessee has been plagued by inconsistent QB play, but the return of Hendon Hooker should alleviate those concerns. Hooker was nothing short of fantastic last season, posting 2,945 yards passing with 36 total TDs. After Bryce Young, Hooker may be the next best QB in the SEC. He’ll have to do without WR Velus Jones Jr., who is now a Chicago Bear, but Hooker should be ecstatic for the return of WR Cedric Tillman. Tillman caught 64 passes for 1081 yards and 12 TDs last year, not too shabby. Throw in the return of top RB Jabari Small and you’ve got yourself a quality trio on offense. Improvement on defense will be imperative for Tennessee to take that next step forward. The unit was subpar last year, but brings back a ton of key pieces like leading tackler LB Jeremy Banks and EDGE Byron Young. I wonder if Tennessee’s Byron Young knows Alabama’s Byron Young? Back on topic, the only challenge for the Volunteers in non-conference play is Pitt, which should assure them a 2-1 start (at worst) to begin conference play. From there, I think Tennessee will be able to outlast many of their SEC opponents with their potent offense and the tantalizing talent of QB Hendon Hooker.

Kentucky Wildcats (9-3, 5-3)

Picking between Tennessee and Kentucky for the second spot was challenging, a true coin flip. What makes Kentucky so incredibly attractive is the return of backfield tandem QB Will Levis and RB Chris Rodriguez. Levis probably turned it over a little more than he would’ve liked in 2021, but ultimately accounted for 33 total TDs on the season. Meanwhile, Rodriguez is a pure workhorse and powerful playmaker. My concern for the Wildcats is at WR, where there is a 1,300 yard hole to fill with Wan’Dale Robinson gone. WR Tayvion Robinson has been a steady producer at Virginia Tech for the last three seasons and could be a breakout candidate with enough targets. I feel good about the Kentucky defense with the return of key LBs Jacques Jones and DeAndre Square. If CB Keidron Smith can translate his past success at Ole Miss to Kentucky, the defense in Lexington should be a strong point. Fortunately for Kentucky, they miss Alabama and Texas A&M in the cross-over section of their schedule. They won 10 games (including bowl) in 2021 and I think they can get close to the same mark again in 2022.

Florida Gators (8-4, 4-4)

Dan Mullen is out, Billy Napier is in. After a run of great success at Louisiana-Lafayette, Napier hopes to get Florida back on track after a sour 2021 season. The QB is Anthony Richardson, who is an absolute tank at 6’4” and 232 lbs. Richardson possesses the raw skill to be a great QB, but he was so-so when he played last year. Emory Jones is gone, the offense is now his to take command of. RB Dameon Pierce is now a starter in the NFL, but luckily Florida plucked Miami (OH) transfer RB Montrell Johnson Jr. out of the portal and bring back some experience in RB Nay’quan Wright. WR Justin Shorter is back for his fifth season of college football and may be in line for his most productive season yet. Although he recently suffered an injury in practice, look for experienced Arizona State transfer WR to form an early connection with Anthony Richardson. To conclude with the offense, Billy Napier brought along former Freshman All-American and First Team All-Sun Belt OG O’Cyrus Torrence to bolster the offensive line. On defense, leading tackler Mohamoud Diabate is off to Utah, but sack leader EDGE Brenton Cox is back, as is impactful DT Gervon Dexter and the DB tandem of Trey Dean III and Rashad Torrence II. Possibly the biggest returner for the Gators is LB Ventrell Miller, who missed virtually all of 2021 with an injury after being a key figure on the defense in 2019 and 2020. There will be growing pains, but I am cautiously optimistic about the Florida Gators.

South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5, 4-4)

Shane Beamer hasn’t been at South Carolina for very long, but it's already clear that he’s changing the culture in Columbia. The Gamecocks won seven games despite having horrible QB play in 2021. Now, Beamer got his guy in Oklahoma transfer QB Spencer Rattler. Rattler is a polarizing character and has had bouts of inconsistency, but he has all the tools to be an NFL-caliber signal-caller. Along with Rattler from Oklahoma is TE Austin Stogner, a veteran player that can give his QB some security. Top WR Josh Vann returns, as does versatile WR Dakereon Joyner, who played some QB out of desperation in 2021. The x-factor for the South Carolina offense is Antwane Wells Jr., a WR transfer from James Madison who produced mega numbers at the FCS level. The defense will sorely miss S Jaylan Foster and EDGE Kingsley Enagbare, two of their top producers last season. Among other returners such as DT Zacch Pickens, LB Brad Johnson, and DB Cam Smith, the Gamecocks could really use junior DE Jordan Burch to emerge as a factor. Burch is a former five-star recruit, but has recorded just one sack since entering college. I believe South Carolina has improved from last season, but with the scheduling rigors of the SEC (and playing Clemson annually), I don’t know if that progress will be apparent in their record.

Missouri Tigers (4-8, 1-7)

Largely on the back of RB Tyler Badie, Missouri wound up in a bowl game in 2021. Now, Badie is gone, as is QB Connor Bazelak. Bazelak’s replacement is Brady Cook, a third-year sophomore with just 65 pass attempts under his belt. In terms of replacing Badie, second leading RB Elijah Young is back and Stanford transfer RB Nathaniel Peat should also shoulder some of the load. There is some continuity at WR, but the headliner of that group is freshman Luther Burden III, a five-star recruit who should make an instant impact in Columbia. The defense was shaky last year, especially in SEC play. DEs Trajan Jeffcoat and Isaiah McGuire highlight the front seven, followed by DBs Jaylon Carlies and Martez Manuel in the secondary. Missouri should have two built-in wins against Louisiana Tech and Abilene Christian early on, but SEC play will be brutal for the Tigers. It remains to be seen how Missouri fares in 2022, but at least they’ll have a pure excitement machine in Luther Burden.

Vanderbilt Commodores (4-8, 1-7)

After defeating Hawaii in week zero, I can CONFIDENTLY say that Vanderbilt will win at least one game. Hawaii is really bad, but the Commodores looked pretty solid, especially at QB where Mike Wright tossed two TDs and ran for two more. Wright isn’t a very accurate passer, but his ability to do damage with his legs keeps defenses on their toes. With Wright, both top RB options from 2021 are back in Re’Mahn Davis and Rocko Griffin, both of whom were efficient and productive in last week’s game. The WRs are thin with the departures of Cam Johnson and Chris Pierce, but WR Will Sheppard is experienced and freshman WR Jayden McGowan could get meaningful snaps early. There’s not much to say about the Vandy defense, it is bad. The Commodores ranked last or near the bottom in almost every meaningful defensive stat in 2021 and didn’t really make any significant moves this offseason. Head coach Clark Lea is a defense guy, but I don’t know how well his prowess can steer his defense to success.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Will the Crimson Tide get their revenge? Can Georgia defend the national title? How will year one of the Billy Napier era look at Florida? Let me know in the comments below!

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